Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.9.4.1.3 Drought =====

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Although an increase in drought hazard is projected for north and southwest southern Africa with increased global warming (Figure 9.15), central African countries may have the highest drought risk because of high vulnerability and high population growth ( [[#Ahmadalipour--2019|Ahmadalipour et al., 2019]] ). Among continents, Africa contains the second largest population of people living in drylands, which is expected to double by 2050 ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ). Continuing current population and GDP growth trends, the extent of urban land in arid zones is projected to increase around 180% in southern Africa, 300% in north Africa and 700% in mid-latitude Africa by 2030 when compared to 2000, without considering climate change ( [[#Güneralp--2015|Güneralp et al., 2015]] ). At 1.5°C warming, urban populations exposed to severe droughts in west Africa are projected to increase (65±34 million) and increase further at 2°C ( [[#IPCC--2018b|IPCC, 2018b]] ; [[#Liu--2018b|Liu et al., 2018b]] ). Risks associated with increases in drought frequency and magnitudes are projected to be substantially larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C for north Africa and southern Africa ( [[#IPCC--2018b|IPCC, 2018b]] ; [[#Oppenheimer--2019|Oppenheimer et al., 2019]] ). Dryland populations exposed (vulnerable) to water stress, heat stress, and desertification are projected to reach 951 (178) million at 1.5°C, 1152 (220) million at 2°C, and 1285 (277) million at 3°C of global warming ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ). At global warming of 2°C under a scenario of low population growth and sustainable development (SSP1), the exposed (vulnerable) dryland population is 974 (35) million and for higher population growth and low environmental protections (SSP3) it is 1.27 billion (522 million), a majority of which is in west Africa ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ).

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