Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.9.4.2 Projected Risks to Electricity Generation and Transmission ====

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Climate change poses an increased risk to energy security for human settlements in Africa ( ''high confidence'' ). With burgeoning urban populations and growing economies, sub-Saharan Africa’s electricity needs are growing. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects total generation capacity in Africa must grow 2.5 times from 244 GW in 2018 to 614 GW by 2040 ( [[#IEA--2019|IEA, 2019]] ). African nations plan to add significant generation capacity from natural gas, hydropower, wind and solar power. Each of these technologies is associated to a varying degree with climate risk.

The long lifespan of hydropower dams exposes them to decades of climatic change risk. There is a wide range of uncertainty around the future climate of Africa’s major river basins, but in several basins, there is the likelihood of increased rainfall variability and a drier climate (see Box 9.5). In countries that rely primarily on hydropower, climate change could have considerable impacts on electricity prices and as a result, consumers’ expenditure ( [[#Sridharan--2019|Sridharan et al., 2019]] ). With increasing societal demands on limited water resources and future climate change, it is expected that there will be an intensification of WEF competition and trade-offs ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#9.7|Section 9.7]] ; Box 9.5).

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