Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

== 5.13 Climate-Change-Triggered Competition, Trade-offs and Nexus Interactions in Land and Ocean ==

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This section presents information about the impacts generated by competition and trade-offs in food systems and discusses opportunities and challenges associated with the use of the Nexus framework.

<div id="5.13.1" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="impacts-of-global-land-deals-on-land-use-vulnerable-groups-and-adaptation-to-climate-change"></span>
=== 5.13.1 Impacts of Global Land Deals on Land Use, Vulnerable Groups and Adaptation to Climate Change ===

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Land deals, also known as large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs), describe recent changes in access to land globally ( [[#Borras--2011|Borras et al., 2011]] ). Since 2000, at least 160 million hectares have been under negotiation ( [[#Land%20Matrix--2021|Land Matrix, 2021]] ). Land deals surged after the 2007–2008 food price crisis and farmland investment boom ( [[#Fairbairn--2014|Fairbairn, 2014]] ), with a diverse range of drivers ( [[#Arezki--2015|Arezki et al., 2015]] ; [[#Zoomers--2017|Zoomers and Otsuki, 2017]] ; [[#Conigliani--2018|Conigliani et al., 2018]] ) including land-based climate change interventions ( [[#Dunlap--2014|Dunlap and Fairhead, 2014]] ; [[#Davis--2015a|Davis et al., 2015a]] ; [[#Hunsberger--2017|Hunsberger et al., 2017]] ; [[#Franco--2019|Franco and Borras, 2019]] ). Examples are the expansion of biofuel crops (e.g., [[#Yengoh--2016|Yengoh and Armah, 2016]] ; [[#Aha--2017|Aha and Ayitey, 2017]] ), afforestation and reforestation (A/R) projects ( [[#Olwig--2016|Olwig et al., 2016]] ; [[#Richards--2016|Richards and Lyons, 2016]] ; [[#Scheidel--2018|Scheidel and Work, 2018]] ), REDD+ ( [[#Bayrak--2016|Bayrak and Marafa, 2016]] ; [[#Ingalls--2018|Ingalls et al., 2018]] ), conservation areas ( [[#Lunstrum--2016|Lunstrum, 2016]] ; [[#Schleicher--2019|Schleicher et al., 2019]] ), renewable energy installations (e.g., [[#Sovacool--2021|Sovacool, 2021]] ) or natural disaster management (e.g. [[#Uson--2017|Uson, 2017]] ).

Land deals raise important social justice questions ( [[#Franco--2017|Franco et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hunsberger--2017|Hunsberger et al., 2017]] ; [[#Borras--2018b|Borras and Franco, 2018b]] ; [[#Borras--2020|Borras et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sekine--2021|Sekine, 2021]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Specific impacts of land deals vary according to their purpose, location, actors, land use history and procedural aspects. However, multi-case analyses identify severe adverse impacts (Table 5.18). LSLAs are a significant driver of tropical forest loss ( [[#Davis--2020|Davis et al., 2020]] ), increasing emissions through deforestation ( [[#Liao--2021|Liao et al., 2021]] ) and industrialisation of agriculture ( [[#Rosa--2021|Rosa et al., 2021]] ). LSLAs entail large water appropriations ( [[#Breu--2016|Breu et al., 2016]] ; [[#Chiarelli--2016|Chiarelli et al., 2016]] ; [[#Adams--2019|Adams et al., 2019]] ), affecting local populations’ access to water and food security ( [[#Dell’Angelo--2018|Dell’Angelo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Veldwisch--2018|Veldwisch et al., 2018]] ). By increasing exported crops, and limiting local populations’ access to land, LSLAs produce food security risks ( [[#Marselis--2017|Marselis et al., 2017]] ; [[#Müller--2021b|Müller et al., 2021b]] ). Negative livelihoods impacts arise through enclosure of assets, elite capture ( [[#Oberlack--2016|Oberlack et al., 2016]] ), crowding out of small farmers ( [[#Nolte--2017|Nolte and Ostermeier, 2017]] ) and reducing local populations’ access to commons ( [[#Dell’Angelo--2016|Dell’Angelo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Giger--2019|Giger et al., 2019]] ). Indigenous People are affected, facing high levels of violence in land acquisition conflicts ( [[#Dell’Angelo--2021|Dell’Angelo et al., 2021]] ). The social burdens of land deals tend to be gendered (e.g., [[#Fonjong--2016|Fonjong et al., 2016]] ; [[#Nyantakyi-Frimpong--2017|Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner Kerr, 2017]] ; [[#Atuoye--2021|Atuoye et al., 2021]] ).

'''Table 5.18 |''' Adverse social and ecological risks and impacts of agricultural land deals on land use and vulnerable groups.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Land use dimensions'''

! '''Impacts and implications'''

! '''References (2014 to present)'''

|-
| Forestry

| Direct and indirect land use change provoked by LSLAs accelerates deforestation of tropical forests globally ( ''medium confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Davis--2020|Davis et al. (2020)]]

''Case study examples''

[[#Davis--2015b|Davis et al. (2015b)]]

[[#Scheidel--2018|Scheidel and Work (2018)]] , [[#Magliocca--2020|Magliocca et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Energy use and access

| Expected land use changes provoked by agricultural LSLAs have high fossil-energy footprints. LSLAs may adversely affect local populations’ access to energy resources ( ''medium confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Rosa--2021|Rosa et al. (2021)]]

|-
| Carbon emissions

| LSLAs have high carbon footprints resulting from deforestation and industrialisation of agriculture ( ''medium confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Liao--2021|Liao et al. (2021)]]

[[#Rosa--2021|Rosa et al. (2021)]]

''Case study examples''

Johansson et al. (2020)

[[#Liao--2020|Liao et al. (2020)]]

|-
| Water use and access

| LSLAs frequently involve water appropriations, which may affect access to water, traditional agriculture and the human right to food of local populations ( ''medium confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Breu--2016|Breu et al. (2016)]]

[[#Chiarelli--2016|Chiarelli et al. (2016)]]

Dell’Angelo et al. (2018)

''Case study examples''

[[#Adams--2019|Adams et al. (2019)]]

[[#Tejada--2018|Tejada and Rist (2018)]]

|-
| Food security and nutrition

| LSLAs pose food security risks by re-orienting crop production to nutrient-poor crops predominantly destined for export, and/or excluding local populations from agricultural land ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Cristina%20Rulli--2014|Cristina Rulli and D’Odorico (2014)]]

Mechiche-Alami et al. (2021)

[[#Marselis--2017|Marselis et al. (2017)]]

[[#Müller--2021b|Müller et al. (2021b)]]

''Conceptual studies''

[[#Häberli--2014|Häberli and Smith (2014)]]

''Case study examples''

[[#Shete--2015|Shete and Rutten (2015)]]

[[#Mabe--2019|Mabe et al. (2019)]]

[[#Bruna--2019|Bruna (2019)]]

[[#Hules--2017|Hules and Singh (2017)]]

[[#Moreda--2018|Moreda (2018)]]

[[#Atuoye--2021|Atuoye et al. (2021)]]

|-
| Livelihoods

| LSLAs often lead to adverse livelihood impacts and increased livelihood vulnerability of local populations ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

Davis et al. (2014)

[[#Oberlack--2016|Oberlack et al. (2016)]]

[[#Nolte--2017|Nolte and Ostermeier, 2017]] )

[[#Vandergeten--2016|Vandergeten et al. (2016)]]

[[#Schoneveld--2017|Schoneveld (2017)]]

''Conceptual studies''

[[#Zoomers--2017|Zoomers and Otsuki (2017)]]

''Case study examples''

[[#Richards--2016|Richards and Lyons (2016)]]

[[#Shete--2015|Shete and Rutten (2015)]]

[[#Yengoh--2016|Yengoh and Armah (2016)]]

[[#Mabe--2019|Mabe et al. (2019)]]

[[#Gyapong--2020|Gyapong (2020)]]

|-
| Indigenous People and commons

| LSLAs often have adverse impacts on Indigenous peoples and lands, including land encroachment, dispossession, and displacement.

Land deals frequently target common land and may increase the vulnerability of customary, traditional, and Indigenous systems common property, while reducing their adaptive capacity ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Dell’Angelo--2016|Dell’Angelo et al. (2016)]]

[[#Giger--2019|Giger et al. (2019)]]

[[#Dell’Angelo--2021|Dell’Angelo et al. (2021)]]

''Conceptual studies''

Haller et al. (2020)

''Case study examples''

[[#Olwig--2016|Olwig et al. (2016)]]

[[#Moreda--2017|Moreda (2017)]]

[[#Montefrio--2017|Montefrio (2017)]]

[[#Scheidel--2018|Scheidel and Work (2018)]]

[[#Konforti--2018|Konforti (2018)]]

[[#Pietilainen--2019|Pietilainen and Otero (2019)]]

[[#Mingorría--2018|Mingorría (2018)]]

[[#Bukari--2018|Bukari and Kuusaana (2018)]]

Haller (2019)

Hak et al. (2018)

[[#Gabay--2017|Gabay and Alam (2017)]]

[[#Imbong--2021|Imbong (2021)]]

|-
| Gender

| Impacts and implications of land deals are sometimes experienced in different ways by different genders ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ''Case study examples''

[[#Tsikata--2014|Tsikata and Yaro (2014)]]

Yengoh et al. (2015)

[[#Fonjong--2016|Fonjong et al. (2016)]]

[[#Nyantakyi-Frimpong--2017|Nyantakyi-Frimpong and Bezner Kerr (2017)]]

[[#Elmhirst--2017|Elmhirst et al. (2017)]]

[[#Bottazzi--2018|Bottazzi et al. (2018)]]

[[#Ndi--2019|Ndi (2019)]]

[[#Osabuohien--2019|Osabuohien et al. (2019)]]

Porsani et al. (2019)

[[#Atuoye--2021|Atuoye et al. (2021)]]

|-
| Impacts on other climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives

| LSLAs may undermine mitigation and adaptation initiatives and other land uses relevant for climate change mitigation and adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ''Multi-case analyses''

[[#Carter--2017|Carter et al. (2017)]]

''Case study examples''

Borras et al. (2020)

[[#Gabay--2017|Gabay and Alam (2017)]]

[[#Nyantakyi-Frimpong--2020b|Nyantakyi-Frimpong (2020b)]]

[[#Scheidel--2018|Scheidel and Work (2018)]]

[[#Rodríguez-de-Francisco--2021|Rodríguez-de-Francisco et al. (2021)]]

|-
| Other environmental impacts

| LSLAs are projected to provoke global environmental change; LSLAs are a potential driver of slope instability; LSLAs affect natural habitats such as tiger landscapes; LSLAs jeopardize biodiversity ( ''low confidence'' ).

| [[#Lazarus--2014|Lazarus (2014)]]

Chiarelli et al.(2021)

Debonne et al.(2019)

[[#Balehegn--2015|Balehegn (2015)]]

|}

Local populations can experience declining access to livelihood resources and deteriorating food security, increasing gendered vulnerabilities ( [[#Yengoh--2015|Yengoh et al., 2015]] ; [[#Faye--2017|Faye and Ribot, 2017]] ; [[#Atuoye--2021|Atuoye et al., 2021]] ). Vulnerable groups displaced by land deals may face higher exposure to climate change ( [[#Dell’Angelo--2017|Dell’Angelo et al., 2017]] ). LSLAs affecting common-pool resources governed by Indigenous institutions jeopardise the resilience and adaptive capacity of local socio-ecological systems ( [[#Dell’Angelo--2016|Dell’Angelo et al., 2016]] ; [[#D’Odorico--2017|D’Odorico et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hak--2018|Hak et al., 2018]] ; Haller, 2019; [[#Haller--2020|Haller et al., 2020]] ). Growing land tenure insecurity may force farmers to engage in unsustainable farming and forestry practices ( [[#Aha--2017|Aha and Ayitey, 2017]] ; [[#Gabay--2017|Gabay and Alam, 2017]] ) and hinder agroecological innovations to manage climate risks ( [[#Nyantakyi-Frimpong--2020b|Nyantakyi-Frimpong, 2020b]] ). Social justice concerns and vulnerability of local populations can be addressed by promoting land redistribution and recognition, particularly for customary lands of Indigenous and ethnic minorities, and land restitution to those who were forcibly displaced ( [[#Franco--2015|Franco et al., 2015]] ; [[#Borras--2018a|Borras and Franco, 2018a]] ).

<div id="5.13.2" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="trade-offs-generated-by-agricultural-intensification-and-expansion"></span>
=== 5.13.2 Trade-offs Generated by Agricultural Intensification and Expansion ===

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Agricultural intensification seeks to increase agricultural productivity per input unit, reducing the pressure on land use and generating positive impacts in GHG emissions ( [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ), but valuing the final effect requires common metrics in terms of carbon capture or emission reductions ( [[#Searchinger--2018|Searchinger et al., 2018]] ). It has been suggested to address multiple SDGs (SDG2, SDG13, SDG15) but only occasionally leads to simultaneous positive ecosystem service and well-being outcomes ( [[#Rasmussen--2018|Rasmussen et al., 2018]] ). When the process relies only on increasing input use, there is a risk of generating adverse outcomes that may override positive effects, such as CO 2 emissions, ( [[#McGill--2018|McGill et al., 2018]] ), NOx emissions ( [[#Hickman--2017|Hickman et al., 2017]] ), soil salinisation and groundwater depletion ( [[#Doody--2015|Doody et al., 2015]] ; [[#Daliakopoulos--2016|Daliakopoulos et al., 2016]] ; [[#Fragaszy--2016|Fragaszy and Closas, 2016]] ; [[#Foster--2018|Foster et al., 2018]] ; [[#Flörke--2019|Flörke et al., 2019]] ). Agricultural intensification could meet short-term food security and livelihood goals, but reduces biological and landscape diversity, and ecosystem services ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Campbell--2017|Campbell et al., 2017]] ; [[#Balmford--2018|Balmford et al., 2018]] ; [[#Springmann--2018|Springmann et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ickowitz--2019|Ickowitz et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ). Agricultural intensification can also affect livelihoods of small-scale producers, compromising food security. It can increase low-waged casual farm work, increasing gender and income inequity ( [[#Bigler--2017|Bigler et al., 2017]] ; [[#Clay--2019|Clay and King, 2019]] ; Table 5.18).

Land available for provisioning ecosystem services is declining in many places because of agricultural expansion, bioenergy crops and reforestation for mitigation ( [[#Kongsager--2018|Kongsager, 2018]] ), with adverse climate impacts ( [[#Froese--2019|Froese and Schilling, 2019]] ). Cropland expansion can deteriorate biodiversity ( [[#Delzeit--2017|Delzeit et al., 2017]] ), water quality ( [[#Ayala--2016|Ayala et al., 2016]] ) and carbon storage ( [[#Goldstein--2012|Goldstein et al., 2012]] ) and increase water demands ( [[#Yokohata--2020|Yokohata et al., 2020]] ).

A systems-based perspective on land use is needed to address climate change impacts on nutrition security and ecosystem services ( [[#Springmann--2018|Springmann et al., 2018]] ; [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ; [[#Willett--2019|Willett et al., 2019]] ). Land sparing sets aside some land for conservation purposes and intensifies production on farmland ( [[#Balmford--2018|Balmford et al., 2018]] ; [[#Benton--2018|Benton et al., 2018]] ; [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ), with potential to offset GHG emissions ( [[#Lamb--2016|Lamb et al., 2016]] ). Alternatively, ‘land sharing’ approach employs principles such as minimising fossil-fuel-based inputs, maximising synergies, and addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as biodiversity ( [[#Kremen--2012|Kremen and Miles, 2012]] ; [[#Kremen--2015|Kremen, 2015]] ; [[#Kremen--2018|Kremen and Merenlender, 2018]] ; [[#HLPE--2019|HLPE, 2019]] ; [[#5.1|Section 5.1]] 4, Box on Agroecology). Community-managed initiatives can address biodiversity and ecosystem conservation, livelihoods, food provisioning and other ecosystem services ( [[#Kremen--2018|Kremen and Merenlender, 2018]] ; [[#HLPE--2019|HLPE, 2019]] ).

The concept of sustainable intensification has emerged, looking for enhancements in environmental outcomes, while maintaining or increasing agricultural systems performance. There is a potential to find synergies between agricultural production and landscape systems if systems are designed to operate within planetary boundaries ( [[#Rockström--2017|Rockström et al., 2017]] ; [[#Liao--2018|Liao and Brown, 2018]] ; [[#Pretty--2018|Pretty, 2018]] ; [[#Pretty--2018|Pretty et al., 2018]] ).

<div id="5.13.3" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="competition-between-food-systems-in-land-and-ocean"></span>
=== 5.13.3 Competition between Food Systems in Land and Ocean ===

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Livestock and aquaculture feeds utilise crops such as soyabean and maize, with food conversion efficiencies similar in chicken and Atlantic salmon, and higher in pigs and cattle ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ; [[#Fry--2018b|Fry et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Fry--2018a|Fry et al., 2018a]] ). Use of wild fish meal and oil has been decreasing, partly due to concerns regarding vulnerable small pelagic fish stocks ( [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ). The instability of wild fish stocks has increased terrestrial crop feed components ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ; [[#Blanchard--2017|Blanchard et al., 2017]] ; [[#FAO--2017|FAO, 2017]] ; [[#Cottrell--2018|Cottrell et al., 2018]] ). The use of wild fish in fish feeds that may have been directly consumed may put low-income households at risk of food insecurity ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ). An increasing demand for aquaculture products intensifies competition for feed supplies ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ; [[#Blanchard--2017|Blanchard et al., 2017]] ). Increases in demands for animal protein and shifts to pescatarian diets will increase the existing competition for land resources, particularly in low- and medium-income countries, with negative impacts on food security ( [[#Makkar--2018|Makkar, 2018]] ), but may be mitigated by dietary changes, novel feeds and food waste usage for aquatic systems ( [[#Berners-Lee--2018|Berners-Lee et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hua--2019|Hua et al., 2019]] ; [[#Cottrell--2020|Cottrell et al., 2020]] ).

Competition over use of major aquaculture feed crops ( [[#Fry--2016|Fry et al., 2016]] ) with terrestrial livestock ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ), and fish use by terrestrial livestock, will also place pressure on fish and crop resources ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Cottrell--2018|Cottrell et al., 2018]] ). Increases in feed prices will affect fish and meat prices ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ), and changes in agriculture will be needed to satisfy aquaculture demands ( [[#Blanchard--2017|Blanchard et al., 2017]] ). Aquaculture and livestock dietary components may also compromise crops and forage fish that provide essential nutrients for low-income households increasing nutritional insecurity, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America ( [[#Troell--2014|Troell et al., 2014]] ). Waste fish products can supplement fish meal and oil to reduce competition for feed, as well as reducing use of fish that could go to human consumption ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Little--2016|Little et al., 2016]] ; [[#Shepherd--2017|Shepherd et al., 2017]] ; [[#Dave--2018|Dave and Routray, 2018]] ; [[#Naylor--2021|Naylor et al., 2021]] ). Use of algae, bacteria, yeast and insect diets could replace fishmeal for aquaculture ( [[#Cohen--2018|Cohen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hua--2019|Hua et al., 2019]] ; [[#Cottrell--2020|Cottrell et al., 2020]] ), not affecting nutritional profiles ( [[#Campanaro--2019|Campanaro et al., 2019]] ), and fish could be reared on waste by-products of other food production systems ( [[#Bava--2019|Bava et al., 2019]] ). Complete fish oil substitutions with microalgae may be possible without compromising omega-3 contents, but energy usage in diet production should be considered [[#Cottrell--2020|Cottrell et al. (2020)]] . Substitutions of plant-based and alternative feeds may decrease food conversion efficiencies ( [[#Cottrell--2020|Cottrell et al., 2020]] ), affect omega-3 content of farmed seafood ( [[#Fry--2016|Fry et al., 2016]] ; [[#Shepherd--2017|Shepherd et al., 2017]] ), be problematic for the fish themselves ( [[#Little--2016|Little et al., 2016]] ; [[#Naylor--2021|Naylor et al., 2021]] ) and lead to reduced productivity ( [[#Shepherd--2017|Shepherd et al., 2017]] ).

Competition will be heightened by other climate impacts, such as changes in water availability. Water usage is relatively high in animal production ( [[#Abraham--2014|Abraham et al., 2014]] ; [[#Sultana--2014|Sultana et al., 2014]] ; [[#de%20Miguel--2015|de Miguel et al., 2015]] ; [[#Palhares--2015|Palhares and Pezzopane, 2015]] ; [[#Weindl--2017|Weindl et al., 2017]] ). In some areas, increased demand for plant-based animal feeds will be affected by sea level rise and competing usage of available freshwater with other users, and ecosystem needs ( [[#Karttunen--2017|Karttunen et al., 2017]] ).

<div id="5.13.3.1" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="agricultural-and-river-runoff"></span>
==== 5.13.3.1 Agricultural and river runoff ====

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Flooding on agricultural land will enhance nutrient runoff, creating eutrophication and increasing harmful phytoplankton blooms, affecting fisheries and aquaculture, human health and ecosystem biodiversity. Changes in precipitation, monsoons, runoff and flood potential combine with deforestation and poor sewage treatment, resulting in larger volumes of nutrients and freshwater reaching coastal ecosystems ( [[#Jin--2018|Jin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nasonova--2018|Nasonova et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tamm--2018|Tamm et al., 2018]] ). Rising surface temperatures, ocean acidification and eutrophication will increase pathogenic ''Vibrio'' bacterial loads in marine organisms, with potential transfer to humans ( [[#Hernroth--2018|Hernroth and Baden, 2018]] ). Shallow and microtidal estuaries will be more vulnerable to changing river runoffs and saltwater intrusions, eutrophication and hypoxia ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#IPCC--2019c|IPCC, 2019c]] ).

<div id="5.13.4" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="maladaptation-responses-and-sustainable-solutions"></span>
=== 5.13.4 Maladaptation Responses and Sustainable Solutions ===

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Maladaptation can result in three types of outcomes ( [[#Juhola--2016|Juhola et al., 2016]] ): (1) ''rebounding vulnerability'' : short term adaptations that decrease adaptive capacity and hinder future choices; (2) ''shifting vulnerability'' : larger-scale adaptation actions that produce spill-over effects in other locations; (3) ''eroding sustainable development'' : adaptation strategies which increase emissions and deteriorate environmental conditions and/or social and economic values (Tables 5.20 and 5.21).

Existing climate policies do not adequately consider trade-offs, adaptive limits, cumulative costs and potential risks of maladaptation ( ''robust evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) ( [[#Dovie--2017|Dovie, 2017]] ; [[#Holsman--2019|Holsman et al., 2019]] ; [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ; [[#Work--2019|Work et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thomas--2020|Thomas, 2020]] : Table 5.19). Government policies are seldom coordinated across scales and often focused on regional short-term risks ( ''medium evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' ) ( [[#Dovie--2017|Dovie, 2017]] ; [[#Holsman--2019|Holsman et al., 2019]] ; [[#Rahman--2019|Rahman and Hickey, 2019]] ; [[#Butler--2020|Butler et al., 2020]] ). Past development trajectories and dominant political economic structures may narrow adaptation pathways, be restrictive and increase the vulnerability of particular groups ( [[#Paprocki--2018|Paprocki, 2018]] ; [[#Quan--2019|Quan et al., 2019]] ; [[#Rahman--2019|Rahman and Hickey, 2019]] ; [[#Work--2019|Work et al., 2019]] ).

'''Table 5.19 |''' Case studies of trade-offs and negative outcomes associated with agricultural intensification on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Ecosystem service'''

! '''Trade-offs/negative outcomes'''

! '''References'''

|-
| Provisioning: water quality

| Negative impacts on ephemeral wetlands

| Dalu et al. (2017)

|-
| Provisioning: water availability

| Contribution to water scarcity

| [[#Satgé--2019|Satgé et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Supporting: soil

| Increasing erosion risk

| [[#Govers--2017|Govers et al. (2017)]]

|-
| Regulating: climate

| Reduced SOC sequestration

| [[#Olsen--2019|Olsen et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Regulating: pest control

| Reduced level of biological control of pests; reduced number of insectivorous birds

| [[#Emmerson--2016|Emmerson et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Cultural: recreational

| Reduction of river wildlife

| [[#DeBano--2016|DeBano et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Biodiversity

| Reduced global biodiversity

| [[#Newbold--2015|Newbold et al. (2015)]] , [[#Egli--2018|Egli et al. (2018)]] , [[#Beckmann--2019|Beckmann et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Biodiversity

| Reduction of taxonomic diversity

| Jeliazkov et al., (2016), [[#Kehoe--2017|Kehoe et al. (2017)]] , [[#Banerjee--2019|Banerjee et al. (2019)]]

|-
| Biodiversity

| Negative impacts on mean population stability

| [[#Olivier--2020|Olivier et al. (2020)]]

|}

<div id="Case" class="h1-container"></div>

<span id="case-studies-of-maladaptation"></span>