Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.9.4.3 Projected Risks to Road Infrastructure ====

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Climate change and SLR will result in high economic costs for road infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Chinowsky--2015|Chinowsky et al., 2015]] ). Across Africa as a whole, potential cumulative costs estimates through 2100 range from USD 183.6 billion (with adaptation) to USD 248.3 billion (no adaptation) to repair and maintain existing roads damaged by temperature and precipitation changes directly related to projected climate change (see Figure 9.30) ( [[#Chinowsky--2013|Chinowsky et al., 2013]] ). Climate-related road damage and associated repairs will be a significant financial burden to countries, but to varying degrees according to flood risk, existing road asset liability, topography and rural connectivity, among other factors ( [[#Chinowsky--2015|Chinowsky et al., 2015]] ; [[#Cervigni--2017|Cervigni et al., 2017]] ; [[#Koks--2019|Koks et al., 2019]] ). For example, Mozambique is projected to face estimated annual average costs of USD 123 million for maintaining and repairing roads damaged directly by precipitation and temperature changes from climate change through 2050 in a median climate change scenario for a policy that does not consider climate impacts during road design and construction ( [[#Chinowsky--2015|Chinowsky et al., 2015]] ). Risk of river flooding to bridges in Mozambique under current conditions is estimated to be USD 200 million, equal to 1.5% of its GDP per year, and could rise to USD 400 million per year in the worst-case climate change scenario by 2050 ( [[#Schweikert--2015|Schweikert et al., 2015]] ).

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'''Figure 9.30 |''' '''Projected costs for repair and maintenance of pre-2011 road infrastructure in selected African countries as a result of projected climate-change-related damages due directly to precipitation and temperature changes through to 2100.''' Data sources: [[#Chinowsky--2013|Chinowsky et al. (2013)]] . The analysis was run for 22 SRES climate scenarios and the median, and maximum results of the analyses are represented as proportions of the 2011 GDP of each country.

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