Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-2 (section)

=== 2.7.2 Projected Risks ===

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A challenge for future projections that continues from previous IPCC reports is accurately characterising and quantifying the interactions of climate change vs. other, non-climate factors that cause ecological change, including LULCC (particularly deforestation, agricultural expansion, and urbanisation) and air and water pollution. Interactions can be particularly complex for invasive species, pests, pathogens and human infectious diseases. Modelling of risks at the species level requires comprehensive databases of the physiological, life-history, and reproduction of individual species, and modeling the impact of changes in species’ compositions requires a mechanistic understanding of functional traits relevant to ecosystem integrity, functioning and resilience to climate change. Taxa that particularly lack this basis for model projections include fungi and bacteria. For numerous plant and animal species, research into genotypic and phenotypic diversity as a source of ecosystem resilience would inform projections of risk.

Soil plays a vital role in ecosystem function, is the habitat of a large number of species and is a large carbon store which is currently a major source of GHG emissions; it is therefore a priority for climate change research ( [[#Hashimoto--2015|Hashimoto et al., 2015]] ). Major uncertainties remain in our understanding of soil functions. ESMs predict that soil respiration will increase with rising temperatures ( [[#Friedlingstein--2014|Friedlingstein et al., 2014]] ). However, there is evidence of acclimation post-increase ( [[#Carey--2016|Carey et al., 2016]] ) as the opposite response of decrease in respiration with warming ( [[#Li--2013|Li et al., 2013]] ; [[#Reynolds--2015|Reynolds et al., 2015]] ). Long-term, large-scale field observations combined with a better conceptual understanding of the factors governing soil process responses to climate change are needed. A better understanding of plant–water relations is also necessary, including the response of plant transpiration to increased CO 2 , climate warming and changes in soil moisture and groundwater elevation.

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