Editing IPCC:AR6/SYR/Longer-Report (section)

==== 2.3.3. Lack of Finance as a Barrier to Climate Action ====

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'''Insufficient financing, and a lack of political frameworks and incentives for finance, are key causes of the implementation gaps for both mitigation and adaptation (''' '''''high confidence). Financial flows remained heavily focused on mitigation, are uneven, and have developed heterogeneously across regions and sectors (''''' '''''high confidence).''''' In 2018, public and publicly mobilised private climate finance flows from developed to developing countries were below the collective goal under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement to mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Public and private finance flows for fossil fuels are still greater than those for climate adaptation and mitigation ( ''high confidence'' ). The overwhelming majority of tracked climate finance is directed towards mitigation ( ''very high confidence'' ). Nevertheless, average annual modelled investment requirements for 2020 to 2030 in scenarios that limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C are a factor of three to six greater than current levels, and total mitigation investments (public, private, domestic and international) would need to increase across all sectors and regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). Challenges remain for green bonds and similar products, in particular around integrity and additionality, as well as the limited applicability of these markets to many developing countries ( ''high confidence'' ). { ''WGII SPM C.3.2, WGII SPM C.5.4; WGIII SPM B.5.4, WGIII SPM E.5.1'' }

Current global financial flows for adaptation including from public and private finance sources, are insufficient for and constrain implementation of adaptation options, especially in developing countries. ( ''high confidence'' ). There are widening disparities between the estimated costs of adaptation and the documented finance allocated to adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptation finance needs are estimated to be higher than those assessed in AR5, and the enhanced mobilisation of and access to financial resources are essential for implementation of adaptation and to reduce adaptation gaps ( ''high confidence'' ). Annual finance flows targeting adaptation for Africa, for example, are billions of USD less than the lowest adaptation cost estimates for near-term climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Adverse climate impacts can further reduce the availability of financial resources by causing losses and damages and impeding national economic growth, thereby further increasing financial constraints for adaptation particularly for developing countries and LDCs. ( ''medium confidence'' ). { ''WGII SPM C.1.2, WGII SPM C.3.2, WGII SPM C.5.4, WGII TS.D.1.6'' } .

Without effective mitigation and adaptation, losses and damages will continue to disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable populations. Accelerated financial support for developing countries from developed countries and other sources is a critical enabler to enhance mitigation action { WGIII SPM. E.5.3 } . Many developing countries lack comprehensive data at the scale needed and lack adequate financial resources needed for adaptation for reducing associated economic and non-economic losses and damages. ( ''high confidence'' ). { ''WGII Cross-Chapter Box LOSS, WGII SPM C.3.1, WGII SPM C.3.2, WGII TS.D.1.3, WGII TS.D.1.5; WGIII SPM E.5.3'' }

'''There are barriers to redirecting capital towards climate action both within and outside the global financial sector.''' These barriers include: the inadequate assessment of climate-related risks and investment opportunities, regional mismatch between available capital and investment needs, home bias factors, country indebtedness levels, economic vulnerability, and limited institutional capacities. Challenges from outside the financial sector include: limited local capital markets; unattractive risk-return profiles, in particular due to missing or weak regulatory environments that are inconsistent with ambition levels; limited institutional capacity to ensure safeguards; standardisation, aggregation, scalability and replicability of investment opportunities and financing models; and, a pipeline ready for commercial investments. ( ''high confidence'' ) { ''WGII SPM C.5.4; WGIII SPM E.5.2; SR1.5 SPM D.5.2'' }

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'''Cross-Section Box.2: Scenarios, Global Warming Levels, and Risks'''

Modelled scenarios and pathways '''[[#footnote-055|102]]''' are used to explore future emissions, climate change, related impacts and risks, and possible mitigation and adaptation strategies and are based on a range of assumptions, including socio-economic variables and mitigation options. These are quantitative projections and are neither predictions nor forecasts. Global modelled emission pathways, including those based on cost effective approaches contain regionally differentiated assumptions and outcomes, and have to be assessed with the careful recognition of these assumptions. Most do not make explicit assumptions about global equity, environmental justice or intra-regional income distribution. IPCC is neutral with regard to the assumptions underlying the scenarios in the literature assessed in this report, which do not cover all possible futures '''[[#footnote-054|103]]''' . { ''WGI Box SPM.1; WGII Box SPM.1; WGIII Box SPM.1; SROCC Box SPM.1; SRCCL Box SPM.1'' } .

'''Socio-economic Development, Scenarios, and Pathways'''

The five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1 to SSP5) were designed to span a range of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. For the assessment of climate impacts, risk and adaptation, the SSPs are used for future exposure, vulnerability and challenges to adaptation. Depending on levels of GHG mitigation, modelled emissions scenarios based on the SSPs can be consistent with low or high warming levels '''[[#footnote-053|104]]''' . There are many different mitigation strategies that could be consistent with different levels of global warming in 2100 (see Figure 4.1). { ''WGI Box SPM.1; WGII Box SPM.1; WGIII Box SPM.1, WGIII Box TS.5, WGIII Annex III; SRCCL Box SPM.1, SRCCL Figure SPM.2'' }

WGI assessed the climate response to five illustrative scenarios based on SSPs '''[[#footnote-052|105]]''' that cover the range of possible future development of anthropogenic drivers of climate change found in the literature. These scenarios combine socio-economic assumptions, levels of climate mitigation, land use and air pollution controls for aerosols and non- CH 4 ozone precursors. The high and very high GHG emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) have CO 2 emissions that roughly double from current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively '''[[#footnote-051|106]]''' . The intermediate GHG emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) has CO 2 emissions remaining around current levels until the middle of the century. The very low and low GHG emissions scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6) have CO 2 emissions declining to net zero around 2050 and 2070, respectively, followed by varying levels of net negative CO 2 emissions. In addition, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) '''[[#footnote-050|107]]''' were used by WGI and WGII to assess regional climate changes, impacts and risks. { ''WGI BoxSPM.1'' } ( ''Cross-Section Box.2 Figure 1'' )

In WGIII, a large number of global modelled emissions pathways were assessed, of which 1202 pathways were categorised based on their projected global warming over the 21st century, with categories ranging from pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with more than 50% likelihood '''[[#footnote-049|108]]''' with no or limited overshoot (C1) to pathways that exceed 4°C (C8). Methods to project global warming associated with the modelled pathways were updated to ensure consistency with the AR6 WGI assessment of the climate system response '''[[#footnote-048|109]]''' . { ''WGIII Box SPM.1,WGIII Table 3.1'' } . ( ''Table 3.1, Cross-Section Box.2 Figure 1'' )

'''Global Warming Levels (GWLs)'''

For many climate and risk variables, the geographical patterns of changes in climatic impact-drivers '''[[#footnote-047|110]]''' and climate impacts for a level of global warming '''[[#footnote-046|111]]''' are common to all scenarios considered and independent of timing when that level is reached. This motivates the use of GWLs as a dimension of integration. { ''WGI Box SPM.1.4, WGI TS.1.3.2; WGII Box SPM.1'' } ( ''Figure 3.1, Figure 3.2'' )

'''Risks'''

Dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards, exposure and vulnerability of the affected human society, species, or ecosystems result in risks arising from climate change. AR6 assesses key risks across sectors and regions as well as providing an updated assessment of the Reasons for Concern (RFCs) – five globally aggregated categories of risk that evaluate risk accrual with increasing global surface temperature. Risks can also arise from climate change mitigation or adaptation responses when the response does not achieve its intended objective, or when it results in adverse effects for other societal objectives. { ''WGII SPM A, WGII Figure SPM.3, WGII Box TS.1, WGII Figure TS.4; SR1.5 Figure SPM.2; SROCC Errata Figure SPM.3; SRCCL Figure SPM.2'' } ( ''3.1.2, Cross-Section Box.2 Figure 1, Figure 3.3'' )

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[[File:cd5731fe0df129fa508da850d6fdcb4c IPCC_AR6_SYR_CSB_2_Figure_1.png]]
\* The terminology SSPx-y is used, where ‘SSPx’ refers to the Shared Socio-economic Pathway or ‘SSP’ describing the socio-economic trends underlying the scenario, and ‘y’ refers to the approximate level of radiative forcing (in watts per square metre, or Wm ''–2'' ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.

\** The AR5 scenarios (RCPy), which partly inform the AR6 WGI and WGII assessments, are indexed to a similar set of approximate 2100 radiative forcing levels (in W m ''-2'' ). The SSP scenarios cover a broader range of GHG and air pollutant futures than the RCPs. They are similar but not identical, with differences in concentration trajectories for different GHGs. The overall radiative forcing tends to be higher for the SSPs compared to the RCPs with the same label ( ''medium confidence'' ). { ''WGI TS.1.3.1'' }

\*** Limited overshoot refers to exceeding 1.5°C global warming by up to about 0.1°C, high overshoot by 0.1°C-0.3°C, in both cases for up to several decades.

'''Cross-Section Box.2 Figure 1: Schematic of the AR6 framework for assessing future greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, risks, impacts and mitigation. Panel (a)''' The integrated framework encompasses socio-economic development and policy, emissions pathways and global surface temperature responses to the five scenarios considered by WGI (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and eight global mean temperature change categorisations (C1–C8) assessed by WGIII, and the WGII risk assessment. The dashed arrow indicates that the influence from impacts/ risks to socio-economic changes is not yet considered in the scenarios assessed in the AR6. Emissions include GHGs, aerosols, and ozone precursors. CO 2 emissions are shown as an example on the left. The assessed global surface temperature changes across the 21st century relative to 1850-1900 for the five GHG emissions scenarios are shown as an example in the centre. ''Very likely'' ranges are shown for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. Projected temperature outcomes at 2100 relative to 1850-1900 are shown for C1 to C8 categories with median (line) and the combined ''very likely'' range across scenarios (bar). On the right, future risks due to increasing warming are represented by an example ‘burning ember’ figure (see 3.1.2 for the definition of RFC1). '''Panel (b)''' Description and relationship of scenarios considered across AR6 Working Group reports. '''Panel (c)''' Illustration of risk arising from the interaction of hazard (driven by changes in climatic impact-drivers) with vulnerability, exposure and response to climate change. { ''WGI TS1.4, Figure 4.11; WGII Figure 1.5, WGII Figure 14.8; WGIII Table SPM.2, WGIII Figure 3.11'' }

[https://www.ipcc.ch/figures/csb-2-figure-1 ]

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