Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.2.2 The Policy and Governance Context ===

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The contexts of both policymaking and societal understanding about climate change have evolved since AR5 was published (2013–2014). Increasing recognition of the urgency of the climate change threat, along with still-rising emissions and unresolved issues of mitigation and adaptation, including aspects of sustainable development, poverty eradication and equity, have led to new policy efforts. This section summarizes these contextual developments and how they have shaped, and been used during the preparation of this Report.

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==== 1.2.2.1 IPCC reports and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ====

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The IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR, [[#IPCC--1990a|IPCC, 1990a]]) provided the scientific background for the establishment of the UNFCCC ([[#UNFCCC--1992|UNFCCC, 1992]]), which committed parties to negotiate ways to ‘prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ (the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC). The Second Assessment Report (SAR, [[#IPCC--1996|IPCC, 1996]]) informed governments in negotiating the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the first major agreement focusing on mitigation under the UNFCCC. The Third Assessment report (TAR, [[#IPCC--2001a|IPCC, 2001a]]) highlighted the impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation, and introduced the treatment of new topics such as policy and governance in IPCC reports. The Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (AR4, [[#IPCC--2007a|IPCC, 2007a]]; AR5, [[#IPCC--2013a|IPCC, 2013a]]) provided the scientific background for the second major agreement under the UNFCCC: the Paris Agreement (2015), which entered into force in 2016.

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==== 1.2.2.2 The Paris Agreement (PA) ====

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Parties to the PA commit to the goal of limiting global average temperature increase to ‘well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C in order to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change’. InAR6, as in many previous IPCC reports, observations and projections of changes in global temperature are expressed relative to 1850–1900 as an approximation for pre-industrial levels (Cross-Chapter Box 1.2).

The PA further addresses mitigation (Article 4) and adaptation to climate change (Article 7), as well as loss and damage (Article 8), through the mechanisms of finance (Article 9), technology development and transfer (Article 10), capacity-building (Article 11) and education (Article 12). To reach its long-term temperature goal, the PA recommends ‘achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’, a state commonly described as ‘net zero’ emissions (Article 4) ([[#1.6|Section 1.6]] and Box 1.4). Each Party to the PA is required to submit a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and pursue, on a voluntary basis, domestic mitigation measures with the aim of achieving the objectives of its NDC (Article 4).

Numerous studies of the NDCs submitted since adoption of the PA in 2015 ([[#Fawcett--2015|Fawcett et al., 2015]]; [[#UNFCCC--2015|UNFCCC, 2015]], 2016; [[#Lomborg--2016|Lomborg, 2016]]; [[#Rogelj--2016|Rogelj et al., 2016]], 2017; [[#Benveniste--2018|Benveniste et al., 2018]]; [[#Gütschow--2018|Gütschow et al., 2018]]; [[#UNEP--2019|UNEP, 2019]]) conclude that they are insufficient to meet the Paris temperature goal. In the present IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle, a Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5, [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC, 2018]]) found, with ''high agreement'' , that current NDCs ‘are not in line with pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century.’ The PA includes a ratcheting mechanism designed to increase the ambition of voluntary national pledges over time. Under this mechanism, NDCs will be communicated or updated every five years. Each successive NDC will represent a ‘progression beyond’ the ‘then current’ NDC and reflect the ‘highest possible ambition’ (Article 4). These updates will be informed by a five-yearly periodic review including the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED), as well as a ‘global stocktake’, to assess collective progress toward achieving the PA long-term goals. These processes will rely upon the assessments prepared during the IPCC Sixth Assessment Cycle (e.g., Cross-Chapter Box 1.1; [[#Schleussner--2016b|Schleussner et al., 2016b]]).

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==== 1.2.2.3 The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) ====

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Since AR5, the formal dialogue between the scientific and policy communities has been strengthened through a new science– policy interface, the Structured Expert Dialogue (SED). The SED was established by UNFCCC to support the work of its two subsidiary bodies, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). The first SED aimed to ‘ensure the scientific integrity of the first periodic review’ of the UNFCCC, the 2013–2015 review. The Mandate of the periodic review is to ‘assess the adequacy of the long-term (temperature) goal in light of the ultimate objective of the convention’ and the ‘overall progress made towards achieving the long-term global goal, including a consideration of the implementation of the commitments under the Convention.’

The SED of the first periodic review (2013–2015) provided an important opportunity for face-to-face dialogue between decision makers and experts on review themes, based on ‘the best available scientific knowledge, including the assessment reports of the IPCC.’ That SED was instrumental in informing the long-term global goal of the PA and in providing the scientific argument for the consideration of limiting warming to 1.5°C warming ([[#UNFCCC--2015|UNFCCC, 2015]]; [[#Fischlin--2017|Fischlin, 2017]]). The SED of the second periodic review, initiated in the second half of 2020, focuses on, among other things, ‘enhancing Parties’ understanding of the long-term global goal and the scenarios towards achieving it in the light of the ultimate objective of the Convention’. The second SED provides a formal venue for the scientific and the policy communities to discuss the requirements and benchmarks to achieve the ‘long-term temperature goal’ (LTTG) of 1.5°C and well below 2°C global warming. The discussions also concern the associated timing of net zero emissions targets and the different interpretations of the PA LTTG, including the possibility of overshooting the 1.5° C warming level before returning to it by means of negative emissions (e.g., [[#1.6|Section 1.6]]; [[#Schleussner--2020|Schleussner and Fyson, 2020]]). The second periodic review is planned to continue until November 2022 and its focus includes the review of the progress made since the first review, while minimising ‘possible overlaps’ and profiting from ‘synergies with the global stocktake’.

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==== 1.2.2.4 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ====

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Many interactions among environmental problems and development are addressed in the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its Sustainable Development Goals. The 2030 Agenda, supported by the finance-oriented Addis Ababa Action Agenda ([[#UN%20DESA--2015|UN DESA, 2015]]), calls on nations to ‘take the bold and transformative steps which are urgently needed to shift the world onto a sustainable and resilient path.’ The 2030 Agenda recognizes that ‘climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time and its adverse impacts undermine the ability of all countries to achieve sustainable development.’ SDG 13 deals explicitly with climate change, establishing several targets for adaptation, awareness-raising and finance. Climate and climate change are also highly relevant to most other SDGs, and UNFCCC is acknowledged as the main forum to negotiate the global response to climate change. For example, both long-lived GHGs (through mitigation decisions), and SLCFs (through air quality), are relevant to SDG 11 (sustainable cities and communities). [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Chapter-6|Chapter 6]] assesses the effects of SLCFs on climate and the implications of changing climate for air quality, including opportunities for mitigation relevant to the SDGs (Box 6.2). Also, the UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Development established a New Urban Agenda ([[#United%20Nations--2017|United Nations, 2017]]) envisaging cities as part of the solutions for sustainable development, climate change adaptation and mitigation.

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==== 1.2.2.5 The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) ====

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction is a non-binding agreement to reduce risks associated with disasters of all scales, frequencies and onset rates caused by natural or human-made hazards, including climate change. The SFDRR outlines targets and priorities for action including ‘understanding disaster risk’, along the dimensions of vulnerability, exposure of persons and assets, and hazard characteristics. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-12 Chapter 12] assesses climate information relevant to regional impact and risk assessment, with a focus on climate hazards and other aspects of climate that influence society and ecosystems and makes the link with Working Group II. AR6 adopts a consistent risk- and solution-oriented framing (Cross-Chapter Box 1.3) that calls for a multidisciplinary approach and cross-Working Group coordination in order to ensure integrative discussions of major scientific issues associated with integrative risk management and sustainable solutions ([[#IPCC--2017|IPCC, 2017]]).

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==== 1.2.2.6 The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) ====

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Efforts to address climate change take place alongside and in the context of other major environmental problems, such as biodiversity loss. IPBES, established in 2012, builds on the IPCC model of a science–policy interface and assessment. The Platform’s objective is to ‘strengthen the science–policy interface for biodiversity and ecosystem services for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, long-term human well-being and sustainable development’ ([[#UNEP--2012|UNEP, 2012]]). The SROCC ([[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]]) and SRCCL ([[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]]) assessed the relations between changes in biodiversity and in the climate system. The rolling work programme of IPBES up to 2030 will address interlinkages among biodiversity, water, food and health. This assessment will use a nexus approach to examine interlinkages between biodiversity and the above-mentioned issues, including climate change mitigation and adaptation. Furthermore, IPBES and IPCC will directly collaborate on biodiversity and climate change under the rolling work programme.

Addressing climate change alongside other environmental problems, while simultaneously supporting sustainable socio-economic development, requires a holistic approach. Since AR5, there is increasing attention on the need for coordination among previously independent international agendas, and a recognition that climate change, disaster risk, economic development, biodiversity conservation and human well-being are tightly interconnected. The current COVID-19 pandemic provides an example of the need for such interconnection, with its widespread impacts on economy, society and environment (e.g., [[#Shan--2021|Shan et al., 2021]]). Cross-Chapter Box 6.1 assesses the consequences of the COVID-19 lockdowns for emissions of GHGs and SLCFs, and related implications for the climate. Another example of the interconnected nature of these issues is the close link between SLCF emissions, climate change and air quality concerns (Chapter 6). Emissions of halocarbons have previously been successfully regulated under the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment. This has been achieved in an effort to reduce ozone depletion that has also modulated other anthropogenic climate influence ([[#Estrada--2013|Estrada et al., 2013]]; [[#Wu--2013|Wu et al., 2013]]). In the process, emissions of some SLCFs were jointly regulated to reduce environmental and health impacts from air pollution (e.g., Gothenburg Protocol; [[#Reis--2012|Reis et al., 2012]]). Considering the recognized importance of SLCFs in climate change processes, the IPCC decided in May 2019 to approve that the IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories produces an IPCC Methodology Report on SLCFs to develop guidance for national SLCF inventories.

The evolving governance context since AR5 challenges the IPCC to provide policymakers and other actors with information relevant for both adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, and for the loss and damage induced.

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