Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.4.1.2 Key Drivers to Vulnerability, with Observed and Projected Impacts ====

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Universal energy access is a big challenge for Asia ( [[#IEA--2018|IEA, 2018]] ). About 230 million Indian people lack access to electricity, and around 800 million still use solid fuels for cooking ( [[#Sharma--2019|Sharma, 2019]] ). The average electricity access rate in South Asia was 74%, the equivalent of 417 million people without electricity and accounting for more than a third of the global 1.2 billion lacking the access ( [[#Shukla--2017|Shukla et al., 2017]] ). With a total population of nearly 640 million in ASEAN, an estimated 65 million people remain without electricity and 250 million rely on solid biomass for cooking fuel ( [[#IEA--2017|IEA, 2017]] ). Universal access to electricity is expected to be achieved by 2030, while 1.6 billion people in Asia will still lack clean energy for cooking ( [[#UNESCAP--2018b|UNESCAP, 2018b]] ).

Asia faces an energy security problem even with the rapid growth in production and trade ( [[#IEEJ--2018|IEEJ, 2018]] ). Among 13 developing countries with large energy consumption in Asia, 11 are exposed to high energy security risk ( [[#WEC--2018|WEC, 2018]] ). This will be a major challenge for the sustainable development of Asia due to the vulnerability to global energy supplies and price volatility ( [[#Nangia--2019|Nangia, 2019]] ). Asia lacks natural energy resources and has the smallest oil reserve but largely relies on fossil fuels. The dependency on fossil fuels was as high as 88.3% in China, 72.3% in India, 89.6% in Japan and 82.8% in Republic of Korea in 2013 (BP, 2014). Many countries in South Asia rely on a single source to supply more than half of the electricity (i.e., 67.9% from coal for India, 99.9% from hydropower for Nepal, 91.5% from natural gas for Bangladesh and 50.2% from oil for Sri Lanka) ( [[#Shukla--2017|Shukla et al., 2017]] ). Additionally, cooperation in Asia to create the integrated energy systems needed for enhancing overall security is still at a very preliminary stage due to countries having different strategic plans and lack of cooperation among them on the common concerns ( [[#Kimura--2013|Kimura and Phoumin, 2013]] ).

Even though energy efficiency is improving, the deployment of low-carbon energy, such as renewables, is not sufficient in Asia. To be consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, the share of renewables in total energy consumption needs to reach 35% in Asia by 2030. Moreover, the financing to deploy renewables presents another considerable challenge ( [[#UNESCAP--2018b|UNESCAP, 2018b]] ).

In order to cope with climate change, renewable energy has become the core of energy development and transformation. Since the 1960s, the total solar radiation on the ground in Asia has shown a downwards trend as a whole, which is consistent with the change in global total solar radiation on the ground, and has experienced a phased change process of ‘first darkening and then brightening’ ( ''high confidence'' ). This conclusion has been further confirmed by ground station observations, satellite remote sensing inversion data and model simulation research ( [[#Wang--2016|Wang and Wild, 2016]] ; [[#Qin--2018|Qin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Yang--2018a|Yang et al., 2018a]] ).

However, wind speed over most Asian regions is obviously decreasing ( ''high confidence'' ). Based on meteorological observation records or reanalysis data, many studies have analysed the variation of near-surface average wind speed in Asia. It is generally found that wind speed has declined since the 1970s, although the declining trend is different in different subregions. ( [[#Yang--2012c|Yang et al., 2012c]] ; [[#Lin--2013|Lin et al., 2013]] ; [[#Liu--2014b|Liu et al., 2014b]] ; [[#Zha--2016|Zha et al., 2016]] ; [[#Guo--2017a|Guo et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Torralba--2017|Torralba et al., 2017]] ; [[#Wu--2017a|Wu et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Ohba--2019|Ohba, 2019]] ). The decline of near-surface wind speed in Asia is consistent with the general decline of global land-surface wind speeds, among which the frequency of strong winds and the decline of wind speed are more prominent ( [[#McVicar--2012|McVicar et al., 2012]] ; [[#Jiang--2013|Jiang et al., 2013]] ; [[#Blunden--2017|Blunden and Arndt, 2017]] ; [[#Wu--2018c|Wu et al., 2018c]] ). Since the early 2010s, the average wind speed in the world and some parts of Asia has shown signs of increasing ( [[#Li--2018d|Li et al., 2018d]] ; [[#Wu--2018c|Wu et al., 2018c]] ; [[#Zeng--2019|Zeng et al., 2019]] ), which seems to be an inter-decadal variability. Whether this means a change in its trend needs the support of longer observation data.

At the same time, with the increase in the proportion of renewable energy in the power system, the power system will be more vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather and climate events, and the vulnerability and risk of the power system will greatly increase ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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