Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

=== CCP6.2.3 Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products ===

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Food and fibre production underpins regional identities, cultures and communities of practice and place in polar regions, are vital to local and distant economies (Table CCP6.4) and represent for fisheries a critical source of global nutrition and food security ( [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ). Since SROCC, there is further evidence that climate change alterations of polar ecosystems increasingly challenge production of, and access to, sufficient, healthy and nutritious food, posing risks to future food and nutritional security within and beyond polar regions ( ''high confidence'' ).

'''Table CCP6.4 |''' Climate change impacts on Arctic and Antarctic fisheries and fishing communities. Additional detail in Table SMCCP6.3.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Driver'''

! '''Observed impacts and projected risks'''

! '''References'''

|-
| colspan="2"| ''Current and past climate change impacts''

|
|-
| Warming

| Fisheries productivity declined in multiple stocks across the Arctic including the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS), while Atlantic cod and other fisheries have increased.

| ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ; [[#Cheung--2020|Cheung and Frölicher, 2020]] )

|-
| Extreme heat

| Commercially important fish species declined rapidly during recent MHWs (2016–2019), in the EBS due to reduced recruitment, increased metabolic demand and increased predation mortality, and it is probable that climate impacts have contributed to the closure of Pribilof islands blue king crab ( ''Paralithodes platypus'' ) fisheries.

| ( [[#Zheng--2018|Zheng and Ianelli, 2018]] ; [[#Duffy-Anderson--2019|Duffy-Anderson et al., 2019]] ; [[#Stabeno--2019|Stabeno et al., 2019]] ; [[#Basyuk--2020|Basyuk and Zuenko, 2020]] ; [[#Reum--2020|Reum et al., 2020]] ; [[#Thorson--2020|Thorson et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Temperature; shifting species distributions

| In the Barents Sea, northward redistribution of stocks led fisheries into previously unfished habitats, exposing benthic ecosystems to novel trawling impacts. Large-scale redistributions of Pacific cod (&gt;1000 km per decade) and other groundfish species have challenged fisheries management in the EBS; ~50% of the biomass is now located in the Northern Bering Sea (NBS), outside of historical survey areas and in a region where bottom trawling is prohibited (although pelagic gear is permitted).

| ( [[#Christiansen--2014|Christiansen et al., 2014]] ; [[#Jørgensen--2019|Jørgensen et al., 2019]] ; [[#Spies--2019|Spies et al., 2019]] ; [[#Stevenson--2019|Stevenson and Lauth, 2019]] )

|-
| OA, warming, winds

| Shellfish species such as snow crab are undergoing range contractions poleward in the Barents Sea and NBS, with increased catches in the north and declines in the south.

| ( [[#Jørgensen--2019|Jørgensen et al., 2019]] ; [[#Fedewa--2020|Fedewa et al., 2020]] ) (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5)

|-
| Warming; poleward expansion

| Poleward expansion of Pacific salmon into Arctic watersheds and Greenland fjords presents both new opportunities and novel threats to key subsistence and commercial species such as Arctic char and Atlantic salmon.

| ( [[#Bilous--2020|Bilous and Dunmall, 2020]] ; [[#Nielsen--2020|Nielsen et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Warming; harmful algal blooms (HABs)

| Altered seasonal freshwater habitats are impacting salmon productivity and phenology of important salmon resources in Alaska and in the Fennoscandian North, with subsequent community-specific impacts on commercial and subsistence resources.

| ( [[#Brattland--2018|Brattland and Mustonen, 2018]] ; [[#Cline--2019|Cline et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mustonen--2020|Mustonen and Feodoroff, 2020]] ; [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] )

|-
| Multiple; sea ice

| Losses of winter sea ice to the north and west of the Antarctic Peninsula have enabled krill fishing vessels to fish all year round in that area.

| ( [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] )

|-
| colspan="2"| ''Future climate change impacts and risks''

|
|-
| Multiple

| Climate change impacts on the ecology and physiology of polar cod species contribute to expected increases in biomass and catch potential under high to moderate mitigation (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and reductions in groundfish recruitment and yield under low mitigation (RCP8.5) scenarios (CCP6.2.2) across a range of multispecies models.

| ( [[#Laurel--2016|Laurel et al., 2016]] ; [[#Spencer--2016|Spencer et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lotze--2018|Lotze et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spencer--2019|Spencer et al., 2019]] ; [[#Dahlke--2020|Dahlke et al., 2020]] ; [[#Grüss--2020|Grüss et al., 2020]] ; [[#Hollowed--2020|Hollowed et al., 2020]] ; [[#Reum--2020|Reum et al., 2020]] ; [[#Thorson--2020|Thorson et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Climate × management interaction

| Assuming no climate adaptation in current EBM, 50% declines (relative to projections under persistent current climate conditions) in EBS pollock and cod yield is ''likely'' under moderate carbon mitigation scenarios (RCP4.5), and ''very likely'' under low mitigation scenarios (RCP8.5).

| ( [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Reum--2020|Reum et al., 2020]] ; [[#Whitehouse--2021|Whitehouse et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Warming; ocean acidification (OA)

| Warming, OA, fish predators and thermal tolerance differentiate impacts across crab species in the Arctic; increased productivity and redistribution offshore is expected for tanner crab; red king crab and snow crab are projected to continue to shift north and decrease in productivity. OA is expected to impact demographics, altering harvest recommendations and biological reference points for some species of some shellfish and flatfish (e.g., red king crab, Northern rock sole) in projection simulations.

| ( [[#Punt--2014|Punt et al., 2014]] ; [[#Sawatzky--2020|Sawatzky et al., 2020]] ; [[#Punt--2021|Punt et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Climate × management interaction

| Multiple rights-based fisheries operate in the Arctic, increasing investment in long-term sustainability but reducing harvest portfolio diversity and increasing vulnerability to climate shocks.

| ( [[#Kasperski--2013|Kasperski and Holland, 2013]] ; [[#Ojea--2017|Ojea et al., 2017]] )

|-
| Multiple; sea ice

| Physical and biological changes in Antarctic waters are expected to result in net declines in krill habitat and growth potential, although one study indicates a potential increase. Reduction in the Antarctic ice pack is as ''likely as not'' to increase total season length in areas near to land-based predators.

| ( [[#Melbourne-Thomas--2016|Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2016]] ; [[#Piñones--2016|Piñones and Fedorov, 2016]] ; [[#Klein--2018|Klein et al., 2018]] ; [[#Rogers--2020|Rogers et al., 2020]] ; [[#Veytia--2020|Veytia et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Phytoplankton and temperature

| Projected changes in primary production and temperature are expected to cause declines in krill growth and availability to predators; impacts may be countered by reducing fisheries, signifying a potential conflict between fisheries and top predators.

| ( [[#Piñones--2016|Piñones and Fedorov, 2016]] ; [[#Klein--2018|Klein et al., 2018]] )

|}

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<span id="ccp6.2.3.1-arctic-subsistence-resources"></span>
==== CCP6.2.3.1 Arctic subsistence resources ====

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Subsistence harvest of fish, sea birds and marine mammals is the basis for economic, cultural and spiritual connections with Arctic marine systems (Box CCP6.2)( [[#Fall--2013|Fall et al., 2013]] ; [[#Haynie--2016|Haynie and Huntington, 2016]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] ), and nature-based livelihoods (e.g., caribou and reindeer ( ''Rangifer tarandus'' ) herding, fishing, hunting, trapping, small-scale forestry) are fundamental to Indigenous Peoples across the Arctic as they have been for millennia ( [[#Koivurova--2015|Koivurova et al., 2015]] ; [[#Betts--2016|Betts, 2016]] ; [[#Gavin--2018|Gavin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Raheem--2018|Raheem, 2018]] ; [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] ). Climate change has impacted Indigenous subsistence resources across the Arctic ( ''very high confidence'' ) (SMCCP6.2), and future food systems and ecological connections are at risk from future climate change hazards interacting with non-climate pressures, some of which are mediated or amplified by novel conditions and opportunities in Arctic regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Moerlein--2012|Moerlein and Carothers, 2012]] ; [[#Fall--2013|Fall et al., 2013]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] ; [[#Huntington--2020|Huntington et al., 2020]] ; [[#Huntington--2021|Huntington et al., 2021]] ). Increasing heatwaves, wildfires, extreme precipitation, permafrost loss and rapid seasonal snow and ice thaw events will further threaten terrestrial subsistence food resources across the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ) (Table CCP6.3). Although climate impacts and non-climate factors systematically undermine access to and productivity of subsistence resources, resilience is inherently high for Indigenous Peoples, illustrating critical elements underpinning successful adaptation to climate change (Box CCP6.2) ( [[#Huntington--2021|Huntington et al., 2021]] ).

'''Table CCP6.3 |''' Illustrative examples of climate change impacts on subsistence resources in the Arctic.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Changing'''

'''drivers'''

! '''Observed impacts and projected risks'''

! '''References'''

|-
| Snow, ice, river environments

| Climate change is disrupting subsistence harvests for Indigenous Peoples in Arctic communities that depend on snow, ice and river environments for travel and access to subsistence resources.

| ( [[#Wildcat--2013|Wildcat, 2013]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Multiple

| Across the Canadian Arctic, multiple populations of reindeer and caribou are in decline, with 95% of assessed herds listed as rare, decreasing or ‘threatened’; reindeer and caribou abundances in the Alaska–Canada region have declined 56% over the past 20 years.

| ( [[#Russell--2018|Russell et al., 2018]] )

|-
| Multiple

| Reindeer herding is an important economic and Indigenous cultural activity in the Eurasian Arctic and is being affected by non-climate and climate events, including changes to thaw cycles, drought and unpredictable summer weather, which threaten pasture areas in Siberia. Although changes in vegetation and the freeze–thaw cycle are impacting Sami reindeer herding, adaptive measures by herders have been effective at offsetting multiple climate and non-climate impacts.

| ( [[#Furberg--2011|Furberg et al., 2011]] ; [[#Uboni--2020|Uboni et al., 2020]] ; [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] )

|-
| Sea ice; winds; visibility

| Loss of multi-year ‘mother ice’, declines in seasonal sea ice thickness and stability, and changes in winds and visibility have impacted the availability of, and access to, subsistence resources ( ''high confidence'' ) and have increased interactions between coastal communities and shipping, tourism and commercial fisheries, which directly impact human safety and well-being in Arctic communities ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ( [[#Stephenson--2015|Stephenson and Smith, 2015]] ; [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Melia--2016|Melia et al., 2016]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ford--2019|Ford et al., 2019]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] ; [[#Huntington--2020|Huntington et al., 2020]] ; [[#Huntington--2021|Huntington et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Multiple

| Marine heatwave (MHW)-induced ecosystem changes contributed to widespread mortality events and declines in Northern Bering Sea sea birds and disrupted subsistence harvests in western Alaska.

| ( [[#Jones--2019|Jones et al., 2019]] ; [[#Piatt--2020|Piatt et al., 2020]] ; [[#Siddon--2020|Siddon et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Storminess; sea ice; whale migration timing; shipping

| Although some communities have seen reduced whale harvests due to climate impacts on survival and productivity, changes in storminess and whale migration timing have lengthened the July harvest season for Inuvialuit from Inuvik, Aklavik and Tuktoyaktuk. Changes in Beluga migration routes have increased accessibility to communities of Ulukhaktok and Paulatuk. In Western Greenland, loss of sea ice has both reduced access to sealing and increased subsistence and commercial harvest of Atlantic cod, halibut and other fish species. Increased impacts of noise and ship strikes associated with shipping are expected to impact subsistence species, especially seals and whales in Lancaster sound as well as the Pacific Arctic.

| ( [[#George--2017|George et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hauser--2018|Hauser et al., 2018]] ; [[#Loseto--2018|Loseto et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mustonen--2018a|Mustonen et al., 2018a]] )

|-
| Sea ice

| Changes in sea ice will continue to undermine subsistence resources and disrupt access by smaller scale commercial and subsistence-based ice-edge fishing.

| ( [[#Jacobsen--2018|Jacobsen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ford--2019|Ford et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Shifting distributions; food web changes

| Shifting species distributions and climate change mediated food web reorganisation pose a risk to near-shore subsistence harvests that are essential to sustaining Indigenous Peoples in Western Greenland and the Northern Bering, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas; for example, cod biomass in the Inuvialuit region is projected to decrease 17% by 2100 (RCP8.5). Climate-related declines in harvester access drive projected declines in subsistence availability in Alaska.

| ( [[#Moerlein--2012|Moerlein and Carothers, 2012]] ; [[#Fall--2013|Fall et al., 2013]] ; [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loseto--2018|Loseto et al., 2018]] ; [[#Steiner--2019|Steiner et al., 2019]] ; [[#Marsh--2020|Marsh and Mueter, 2020]] ; [[#Ribeiro--2021|Ribeiro et al., 2021]] )

|}

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<span id="ccp6.2.3.2-agriculture-forestry-livestock-and-aquaculture"></span>
==== CCP6.2.3.2 Agriculture, forestry, livestock and aquaculture ====

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In addition to reindeer herding, Arctic agriculture primarily consists of local production of cool season crops, forage, small grains and livestock (sheep and goats) ( [[#Westergaard-Nielsen--2015|Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Natcher--2019|Natcher et al., 2019]] ). Short growing seasons, cold conditions, permafrost and moisture stress, especially along coasts, have historically limited production, but agriculture is generally increasing across the region ( [[#Westergaard-Nielsen--2015|Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015]] ). Although only ~0.2% of Alaska is farmland, area farmed and income from agriculture have increased 2% and 80%, respectively, since 2012 ( [[#United%20States%20Department%20of%20Agriculture--2017|United States Department of Agriculture, 2017]] ). It is ''likely'' that growing seasons have extended by 1–3 days per decade in interior Alaska, although some coastal areas exhibit declines in growing season ( [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ).

Arctic temperatures rarely exceed thermal tolerances for crops (e.g., 35–38°C across corn, rice and grain), and warming will provide new opportunities for food and forage production in areas such as southwest Greenland and interior Alaska ( [[#Westergaard-Nielsen--2015|Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Tripathi--2016|Tripathi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ). Higher atmospheric CO 2 favours plant growth if soil quality and condition are sufficient, but benefits can be offset by increased heat and water stress associated with climate change ( [[#Tripathi--2016|Tripathi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Unc--2021|Unc et al., 2021]] ). Growing seasons in Alaska will lengthen by 48–87 d yr -1 relative to historical growing season length (1981–2010), and the start of growing season is expected to shift 1–4 weeks earlier ( [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ). Feasible growing areas across the Arctic are expected to shift northward and increase within the 55°–69°N region ( [[#King--2018|King et al., 2018]] ). Permafrost thaw (Table CCP6.1) increases drainage, which is a potential benefit, but can also increase erosion, subsidence and irregular surfaces, inhibiting agriculture ( [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ). Conversion of Arctic soils to croplands may also release carbon stored in vegetation and soils ( [[#Unc--2021|Unc et al., 2021]] ).

Arctic aquaculture contributes approximately 2% to global farm production (primarily Norwegian salmon ( ''Salmo salar'' ) as well as finfish in Iceland and Sweden and shellfish in Alaska), and will face increasing challenges from climate change ( [[#Troell--2017|Troell et al., 2017]] ) including increased frequency of storms (impacting sea farms), extreme temperatures and warmer conditions that favour pathogens, parasites and harmful algal blooms. Aquaculture feeds often depend on small pelagic fish or krill and supply may be affected by climate impacts on fisheries (Table CCP6.6) ( [[#Troell--2017|Troell et al., 2017]] ; [[#Chen--2018|Chen and Tung, 2018]] ; [[#Mørkøre--2020|Mørkøre et al., 2020]] ). Integrated policies and coordination across multiple food production sectors in Arctic regions are needed to address climate opportunities and challenges ( [[#Altdorff--2021|Altdorff et al., 2021]] ; [[#Unc--2021|Unc et al., 2021]] ).

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<span id="ccp6.2.3.3-commonalities-in-impacts-and-risks-across-polar-fisheries"></span>
==== CCP6.2.3.3 Commonalities in impacts and risks across polar fisheries ====

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Fisheries play an increasingly important role in addressing global food and nutritional deficits ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6.3|Section 3.6.3]] )( [[#Béné--2016|Béné et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Costello--2020|Costello et al., 2020]] ), especially as climate change has already reduced global yields from key crops ( [[#Myers--2017|Myers et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ray--2019|Ray et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ). Antarctic and Arctic systems support some of the world’s largest fisheries, including those for Antarctic krill and Arctic walleye pollock ( ''Gadus chalcogrammus'' ), which constitute a critical source of protein and macronutrients to a growing population of seafood consumers, as well as various aquaculture and livestock feeds (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5) (Table CCP6.4) ( [[#Huntington--2013|Huntington et al., 2013]] ; [[#Raheem--2018|Raheem, 2018]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Steiner--2019|Steiner et al., 2019]] ; [[#FAO--2020|FAO, 2020]] ; [[#Cavanagh--2021|Cavanagh et al., 2021]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ; [[#Murphy--2021|Murphy et al., 2021]] ). Marine sources of protein and nutrition are important in transformational future scenarios where dietary shifts and provisioning policies provide multiple co-benefits to equity, food security and carbon mitigation ( [[#Springmann--2016|Springmann et al., 2016]] ; [[#Poore--2018|Poore and Nemecek, 2018]] ; [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kim--2020|Kim et al., 2020]] ). Shifting spatial distributions of fish stocks have led to transboundary management challenges in the Atlantic, Bering Sea and Arctic areas previously inaccessible due to sea ice (Table CCP6.6) ( [[#Gullestad--2020|Gullestad et al., 2020]] ).

Cascading and interacting effects of climate change impacts in polar regions (Table CCP6.1) will reduce access to, and productivity of, future fisheries, and pose significant risks to regional and global food and nutritional security that increase with atmospheric carbon levels and declines in sea ice ( ''high confidence'' ) (Table CCP6.6). Although it is expected that fisheries will continue to contract poleward under future warming (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5) (Table CCP6.4) ( [[#Alabia--2018|Alabia et al., 2018]] ; [[#Morley--2018|Morley et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stevenson--2019|Stevenson and Lauth, 2019]] ; [[#Caccavo--2021|Caccavo et al., 2021]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ), global and regional models differ in their projections of fisheries catch potential for the polar regions under climate change. For example, some global-scale models project increases in potential fishery yields in Arctic Canada ( [[#Cheung--2018|Cheung, 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Tai--2019|Tai et al., 2019]] ), whereas many observational studies and high-resolution regional projections suggest overall declines in biomass, productivity and yield associated with warming and loss of sea ice in multiple regions such as the Bering Sea ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hollowed--2020|Hollowed et al., 2020]] ; [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Mueter--2020|Mueter et al., 2020]] ; [[#Reum--2020|Reum et al., 2020]] ). Reduced production of macronutrients and protein by polar marine sources will disproportionately impact people already experiencing food and nutritional scarcity ( [[#Myers--2017|Myers et al., 2017]] ), marine-dependent communities within and beyond polar regions, and women and children who require higher quantities of macronutrients ( ''high confidence'' ).

Large-scale commercial fisheries are expected to continue to operate in polar regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Barange--2018|Barange et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cavanagh--2021|Cavanagh et al., 2021]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ), and will shift poleward ( ''high confidence'' ) toward geopolitical and management boundaries ( ''high confidence'' ) (CCP6.3.2.3; Table CCP6.6). Warming and climate impacts will continue to impact transboundary stocks and increase the potential for conflict in fisheries management ( [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ; [[#Palacios-Abrantes--2020|Palacios-Abrantes et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sumaila--2020|Sumaila et al., 2020]] ). Increased distances from ports to redistributed fishing grounds as well as increased frequency of storms and other extreme events are expected to increase risks and costs for fishery operations ( ''medium confidence'' ) and impact shore-based infrastructure and emergency response services (CCP6.2.4). Observed and expected increases in mobile ice combined with abrupt wind can create major hazards for fish operators in Antarctica and the Arctic, with consequences to human safety and total revenue (Dawson and et al., 2017; [[#Barber--2018|Barber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ). There will be increased demand for new port infrastructure across the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ); new ports have already been proposed for the Northern Bering Sea, and small craft harbour investments are being considered across Arctic Canada and Greenland. Ecosystem-based management (EBM), increasing diversity and flexibility in harvest portfolios as well as access to high-resolution ecological forecasts and projections, and climate-informed advice will promote adaptation and climate resilience in fisheries (Dawson and et al., 2017; [[#Brooks--2018|Brooks et al., 2018]] ; [[#Karp--2019|Karp et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hollowed--2020|Hollowed et al., 2020]] ). Coupling adaptation measures with global carbon mitigation strategies substantially decreases climate change risks to polar fisheries ( ''very high confidence'' ) (CCP6.3).

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<span id="faq-ccp6.1-how-do-changes-in-ecosystems-and-human-systems-in-the-polar-regions-impact-everyone-around-the-globe-how-will-changes-in-polar-fisheries-impact-food-security-and-nutrition-around-the-world"></span>