Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.9.5.4 Projected Adaptation for Electricity Generation and Transmission in Africa ====

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Most electricity infrastructure in Africa has been designed to account for historical climatic patterns. Failure to consider future climate scenarios in power system planning increases the climate risk facing infrastructure and supplies. Yet, energy demand for cooling over Africa, for example, is expected to increase, with a potential increase in heat stress, population growth and rapid urbanisation to 1.2% of total final energy demand by 2100 compared to 0.4% in 2005 ( [[#Parkes--2019|Parkes et al., 2019]] ). Integrated energy system costs from increased demand for cooling to mitigate heat stress are projected to accumulate from 2005 to USD 51.3 billion by 2035 at 2°C and to USD 486.5 billion by 2076 at 4°C global warming ( [[#Parkes--2019|Parkes et al., 2019]] ).

For hydropower, adaptations to different climate conditions can be made at the level of the power plant, turbine size and reservoir storage capacities, and can be adjusted to projected hydrological patterns ( [[#Lempert--2015|Lempert et al., 2015]] ). At the river basin level, integrated water resource management practices can be implemented across sectors that compete for the same water resources ( [[#Howells--2013|Howells et al., 2013]] ). At the power system level, the energy mix and the protocol through which different power plants are dispatched can be adapted to different climate scenarios ( [[#Spalding-Fecher--2017|Spalding-Fecher et al., 2017]] ; [[#Sridharan--2019|Sridharan et al., 2019]] ).

Given the uncertainty around future hydroclimate conditions, hydropower development decisions carry risk of ‘regrets’ (that is, damages or missed opportunities) when a different climate than was expected materialises. ‘Robust adaptation’ refers to an adaptation strategy that balances risks across different climate scenarios (Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17; [[#Cervigni--2015|Cervigni et al., 2015]] ). Development bank lending principles require consideration of the regional picture and interactions with other developments along a river when they determine the social and environmental impacts of the proposed hydropower project. However, these principles often do not explicitly consider climate change, so the risk of recurring drought-induced hydropower shortages could be missed (Box 9.5).

Lastly, given the degree to which hydropower competes with other sectors and ecosystems for the same water resources, it is critical that hydropower planning and adaptation does not occur in isolation. As discussed in [[#9.7|Section 9.7]] , it must be part of an integrated water management system that balances the needs of different water-reliant sectors with other societal and ecological demands under increasingly variable climate and hydrological conditions ( [[#9.7.3|Section 9.7.3]] ).

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