Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-4 (section)

=== 4.4.6 Towards Climate Resilient Development Pathways ===

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Our assessment shows that failure to mitigate GHG emissions or to adapt to SLR will cause major disruptions to many low-lying coastal communities and jeopardise achievement of all UN SDGs and other societal aspirations. Immediate and ambitious GHG emissions reduction is necessary (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018) to contain the rate and magnitude of SLR, and consequently adaptation prospects. Under unmitigated emissions (RCP8.5), coastal societies, especially poorer, rural and small islands societies, will struggle to maintain their livelihoods and settlements during the 21st century (Sections 4.3.4; 4.4.2). Without mitigation, sea levels will continue to rise for centuries, reaching 2.3–5.4 m by 2300 ( ''likely'' range) and much more beyond (Section 4.2.3.5), making adaptation extremely challenging, if not impossible, for all low-lying coasts, including more intensively developed urbanised coasts. But even with ambitious mitigation (RCP2.6), sea levels will continue to rise, reaching 0.6–1.1 m by 2300 ( ''likely'' range; Figure 4.2 Panel B). Hence, adaptation will continue to be imperative irrespective of the uncertainties about future GHG emissions and key physical processes such as those determining the Antarctic contribution to SLR. Our assessment also shows that all types of responses, from hard protection to EbA, advance and retreat, have important and synergistic roles to play in an integrated and sequenced response to SLR. The merits of a particular type of response, at a particular point in time, critically depends on the biophysical, cultural, economic, technical, institutional and political context.

In this context, AR5 put forward the vision of Climate Resilient Development Pathways, which is “a continuing process for managing changes in the climate and other driving forces affecting development, combining flexibility, innovativeness, and participative problem solving with effectiveness in mitigating and adapting to climate change” (Denton et al., 2014: 1106).Charting Climate Resilient Development Pathways in the face of rising sea level depends on how well mitigation, adaption and other sustainable development efforts are combined, and the governance challenges introduced by SLR are resolved. There are no panaceas for solving these complex issues. However, the wise application of the planning, public participation, conflict resolution, and decision analysis methods assessed above can help coastal communities, cities and settlements develop locally relevant, enabling and adaptive SLR responses. Difficult social choices will nonetheless need to be made as sea levels continue to rise. Given the SLR projections outlined here, it is concluded that global resilience and sustainability prospects depend, to a large extent, on how effectively coastal communities develop and implement ambitious, forward-looking adaptation plans in synchrony with drastic mitigation of GHG emissions.

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