Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.1.4.3 Charting the future of food security ====

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This chapter utilises the common framework of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (Popp et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r146|146]]</sup> ; Riahi et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r147|147]]</sup> and Doelman et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r148|148]]</sup> ) to assess the impacts of future GHG emissions, mitigation measures, and adaptation on food security (Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Sections 5.2 and 5.6).

New work utilising these scenario approaches has shown that the food system externalises costs onto human health and the environment (Springmann et al. 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r149|149]]</sup> ; Swinburn et al. 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r150|150]]</sup> ; Willett et al. 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r151|151]]</sup> ), leading to calls for transforming the food system to deliver better human and sustainability outcomes (Willett et al. 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r152|152]]</sup> ; IAP 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r153|153]]</sup> ; Development Initiatives 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r154|154]]</sup> ; Lozano et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r155|155]]</sup> ). Such a transformation could be an important lever to address the complex interactions between climate change and food security. Through acting on mitigation and adaptation in regard to both food demand and food supply we assess the potential for improvements to both human health and the Sustainable Development Goals (Section 5.6).

This chapter builds on the food system and scenario approaches followed by AR5 and its focus on climate change and food security, but new work since AR5 has extended beyond production to how climate change interacts with the whole food system. The analysis of climate change and food insecurity has expanded beyond undernutrition to include the over-consumption of unhealthy mass-produced food high in sugar and fat, which also threatens health in different but highly damaging ways, as well as the role of dietary choices and consumption in GHG emissions. It focuses on land-based food systems, though highlighting in places the contributions of freshwater and marine production.

The chapter assesses new work on the observed and projected effects of CO <sub>2</sub> concentrations on the nutritional quality of crops (Section 5.2.4.2) emphasising the role of extreme climate events (Section 5.2.5.1), social aspects including gender and equity (Box 5.1, and Cross-Chapter Box 11 in Chapter 7), and dietary choices (Section 5.4.6, 5.5.2). Other topics with considerable new literature include impacts on smallholder farming systems (Section 5.2.2.6), food loss and waste (Section 5.5.2.5), and urban and peri-urban agriculture (Section 5.6.5). The chapter explores the potential competing demands for land that mitigation measures to achieve temperature targets may engender, with cascading impacts on food production, food security, and farming systems (Section 5.6), and the enabling conditions for achieving mitigation and adaptation in equitable and sustainable ways (Section 5.7). Section 5.8 presents challenges to future food security, including food price spikes, migration, and conflict.

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