Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-4 (section)

=== CCP4.3.3 Inland Ecosystems ===

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Beyond 3°C GWL, 13–30% of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 protected area and 15–23% of Natura 2000 sites are projected to change towards more arid ecosystem types ( [[#Barredo--2016|Barredo et al., 2016]] ). Biodiversity and ecosystem services would be exposed to degradation of wetland hydrology, which could affect 19–32% of localities under a 1.5°C–2°C GWL (48–73% under higher warming), particularly in Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria ( [[#Lefebvre--2019|Lefebvre et al., 2019]] ). There is also a substantial shrinking of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem habitats, in particular in Mediterranean islands (Chapters 2; 4; CCP1).

Increased aridity impacts forest ecosystems ( [[#Costa-Saura--2017|Costa-Saura et al., 2017]] ; [[#García%20Sánchez--2018|García Sánchez et al., 2018]] ). Increasing heat waves, combined with drought and land use change, reduce fuel moisture, thereby increasing fire risk, extending the duration of fire seasons and increasing the likelihood of large, severe fires ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#EEA--2017|EEA, 2017]] ; [[#Lozano--2017|Lozano et al., 2017]] ; [[#Peñuelas--2017|Peñuelas et al., 2017]] ; [[#Varela--2019|Varela et al., 2019]] ). Fires impact vegetation recovery after abandonment, thus transforming landscapes ( [[#González-De%20Vega--2016|González-De Vega et al., 2016]] ). At warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C, burnt area in Mediterranean Europe could increase by 40–54%, 62–87% and 96–187%, respectively ( [[#Turco--2018b|Turco et al., 2018b]] ), although changes are highly site dependent and also affected by management ( [[#Caon--2014|Caon et al., 2014]] ; [[#Wu--2015|Wu et al., 2015]] ; [[#Parra--2018|Parra and Moreno, 2018]] ; [[#Brotons--2019|Brotons and Duane, 2019]] ; [[#Hinojosa--2019|Hinojosa et al., 2019]] ).

Desertification occurs in large parts of the region, generally due to unsustainable land use ( [[#Peñuelas--2017|Peñuelas et al., 2017]] ). Increasing drought is projected to exacerbate desertification in North Africa and, under high warming, also southern Spain. In some areas, sclerophyllous vegetation could replace deciduous forests ( [[#Guiot--2016|Guiot and Cramer, 2016]] ). Increasing temperatures and drought could trigger dieback for some forest species such as Mediterranean oak ( [[#Sánchez-Salguero--2020|Sánchez-Salguero et al., 2020]] ), potentially also in combination with biotic factors such as pathogens ( [[#Matías--2019|Matías et al., 2019]] ).

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