Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

==== CCP6.2.3.1 Arctic subsistence resources ====

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Subsistence harvest of fish, sea birds and marine mammals is the basis for economic, cultural and spiritual connections with Arctic marine systems (Box CCP6.2)( [[#Fall--2013|Fall et al., 2013]] ; [[#Haynie--2016|Haynie and Huntington, 2016]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] ), and nature-based livelihoods (e.g., caribou and reindeer ( ''Rangifer tarandus'' ) herding, fishing, hunting, trapping, small-scale forestry) are fundamental to Indigenous Peoples across the Arctic as they have been for millennia ( [[#Koivurova--2015|Koivurova et al., 2015]] ; [[#Betts--2016|Betts, 2016]] ; [[#Gavin--2018|Gavin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Raheem--2018|Raheem, 2018]] ; [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] ). Climate change has impacted Indigenous subsistence resources across the Arctic ( ''very high confidence'' ) (SMCCP6.2), and future food systems and ecological connections are at risk from future climate change hazards interacting with non-climate pressures, some of which are mediated or amplified by novel conditions and opportunities in Arctic regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Moerlein--2012|Moerlein and Carothers, 2012]] ; [[#Fall--2013|Fall et al., 2013]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] ; [[#Huntington--2020|Huntington et al., 2020]] ; [[#Huntington--2021|Huntington et al., 2021]] ). Increasing heatwaves, wildfires, extreme precipitation, permafrost loss and rapid seasonal snow and ice thaw events will further threaten terrestrial subsistence food resources across the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ) (Table CCP6.3). Although climate impacts and non-climate factors systematically undermine access to and productivity of subsistence resources, resilience is inherently high for Indigenous Peoples, illustrating critical elements underpinning successful adaptation to climate change (Box CCP6.2) ( [[#Huntington--2021|Huntington et al., 2021]] ).

'''Table CCP6.3 |''' Illustrative examples of climate change impacts on subsistence resources in the Arctic.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Changing'''

'''drivers'''

! '''Observed impacts and projected risks'''

! '''References'''

|-
| Snow, ice, river environments

| Climate change is disrupting subsistence harvests for Indigenous Peoples in Arctic communities that depend on snow, ice and river environments for travel and access to subsistence resources.

| ( [[#Wildcat--2013|Wildcat, 2013]] ; [[#Meredith--2019|Meredith et al., 2019]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Multiple

| Across the Canadian Arctic, multiple populations of reindeer and caribou are in decline, with 95% of assessed herds listed as rare, decreasing or ‘threatened’; reindeer and caribou abundances in the Alaska–Canada region have declined 56% over the past 20 years.

| ( [[#Russell--2018|Russell et al., 2018]] )

|-
| Multiple

| Reindeer herding is an important economic and Indigenous cultural activity in the Eurasian Arctic and is being affected by non-climate and climate events, including changes to thaw cycles, drought and unpredictable summer weather, which threaten pasture areas in Siberia. Although changes in vegetation and the freeze–thaw cycle are impacting Sami reindeer herding, adaptive measures by herders have been effective at offsetting multiple climate and non-climate impacts.

| ( [[#Furberg--2011|Furberg et al., 2011]] ; [[#Uboni--2020|Uboni et al., 2020]] ; [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] )

|-
| Sea ice; winds; visibility

| Loss of multi-year ‘mother ice’, declines in seasonal sea ice thickness and stability, and changes in winds and visibility have impacted the availability of, and access to, subsistence resources ( ''high confidence'' ) and have increased interactions between coastal communities and shipping, tourism and commercial fisheries, which directly impact human safety and well-being in Arctic communities ( ''high confidence'' ).

| ( [[#Stephenson--2015|Stephenson and Smith, 2015]] ; [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Melia--2016|Melia et al., 2016]] ; [[#Raymond-Yakoubian--2017|Raymond-Yakoubian et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ford--2019|Ford et al., 2019]] ; [[#Slats--2019|Slats et al., 2019]] ; [[#Huntington--2020|Huntington et al., 2020]] ; [[#Huntington--2021|Huntington et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Multiple

| Marine heatwave (MHW)-induced ecosystem changes contributed to widespread mortality events and declines in Northern Bering Sea sea birds and disrupted subsistence harvests in western Alaska.

| ( [[#Jones--2019|Jones et al., 2019]] ; [[#Piatt--2020|Piatt et al., 2020]] ; [[#Siddon--2020|Siddon et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Storminess; sea ice; whale migration timing; shipping

| Although some communities have seen reduced whale harvests due to climate impacts on survival and productivity, changes in storminess and whale migration timing have lengthened the July harvest season for Inuvialuit from Inuvik, Aklavik and Tuktoyaktuk. Changes in Beluga migration routes have increased accessibility to communities of Ulukhaktok and Paulatuk. In Western Greenland, loss of sea ice has both reduced access to sealing and increased subsistence and commercial harvest of Atlantic cod, halibut and other fish species. Increased impacts of noise and ship strikes associated with shipping are expected to impact subsistence species, especially seals and whales in Lancaster sound as well as the Pacific Arctic.

| ( [[#George--2017|George et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hauser--2018|Hauser et al., 2018]] ; [[#Loseto--2018|Loseto et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mustonen--2018a|Mustonen et al., 2018a]] )

|-
| Sea ice

| Changes in sea ice will continue to undermine subsistence resources and disrupt access by smaller scale commercial and subsistence-based ice-edge fishing.

| ( [[#Jacobsen--2018|Jacobsen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ford--2019|Ford et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Shifting distributions; food web changes

| Shifting species distributions and climate change mediated food web reorganisation pose a risk to near-shore subsistence harvests that are essential to sustaining Indigenous Peoples in Western Greenland and the Northern Bering, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas; for example, cod biomass in the Inuvialuit region is projected to decrease 17% by 2100 (RCP8.5). Climate-related declines in harvester access drive projected declines in subsistence availability in Alaska.

| ( [[#Moerlein--2012|Moerlein and Carothers, 2012]] ; [[#Fall--2013|Fall et al., 2013]] ; [[#Brinkman--2016|Brinkman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loseto--2018|Loseto et al., 2018]] ; [[#Steiner--2019|Steiner et al., 2019]] ; [[#Marsh--2020|Marsh and Mueter, 2020]] ; [[#Ribeiro--2021|Ribeiro et al., 2021]] )

|}

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