Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== Atlas.11.2.5 Summary ====

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It is ''very likely'' that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years and ''likely'' that annual precipitation has increased with the highest increases during the cold season. This is based on various Arctic amplification processes, in particular, a combination of several feedback-related processes such as sea ice and snow-cover albedo, poleward energy transports, and water-vapour-cloud-radiation feedbacks. The frequency of rainfall increased over the Arctic by 2.7–5.4% over the 2000–2016 period with more frequent rainfall events being reported for northern Europe and Svalbard ( ''medium confidence'' ).

The CMIP5 models reproduce the observed Arctic warming over the past century but overestimate the amplified Arctic warming in the recent decades ( ''medium confidence'' ). Arctic CORDEX simulations show adequate skill in capturing regional temperature and precipitation patterns and precipitation extremes ( ''high confidence'' ). SMB models have improved due to increased availability and quality of remotely sensed and in situ observations, and an ensemble mean of SMB model simulations provides the best estimate of the present-day SMB ( ''medium confidence'' ).

It is ''very likely'' that the Arctic annual mean temperature and precipitation will continue to increase, reaching around 11.5°C ± 3.4°C and 49 ± 19% over the 2081–2100 period (with respect to a 1995–2014 baseline) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario or 4.0°C ± 2.5°C and 17 ± 11% under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. These CMIP6 results show ''likely'' higher Arctic annual mean temperatures compared to CMIP5 for a given time-period and emissions scenario, though the projections are consistent for global warming levels.

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