Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.14.2.3 System transformation and policy enablers ====

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Recent literature highlights the future challenges of producing the quantities of food needed to feed a growing world population in a way that satisfies nutritional needs, benefits everyone equally and equitably, and minimises the negative impacts of food systems on the environment and the natural resource base. There is broad agreement that current trajectories towards the SDGs and countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement are slow and that transformation of food systems is needed ( ''medium agreement'' , ''robust evidence'' ) ( [[#Campbell--2018|Campbell et al., 2018]] ; [[#Brondizio--2019|Brondizio et al., 2019]] ; [[#Dury--2019|Dury et al., 2019]] ; [[#EAT-LANCET--2019|EAT-LANCET, 2019]] ; FAO, 2019 f; [[#Food%20and%20Land%20Use%20Coalition--2019|Food and Land Use Coalition, 2019]] ; [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al., 2019]] ; Searchinger, 2019a; Searchinger T, 2019b; [[#Loboguerrero--2020|Loboguerrero et al., 2020]] ; [[#Meridian%20Institute--2020|Meridian Institute, 2020]] ; Steiner A, 2020).

Recent reviews have summarised literature on production system transformations, driven at least in part by a changing climate or changing climate variability. Such transformations may involve sometimes substantial shifts in farm and livelihood enterprises and land configurations, including intensification, diversification, sedentarisation and abandonment of agriculture ( [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Thornton--2019|Thornton et al., 2019]] ). Relevant literature is summarised in Table 5.24, showing reported farmers’ perceptions of the drivers of change and the different outcomes of these changes. The consequences of these production system transitions have been mixed; in about 40% of cases, the outcomes at household level have been unequivocally beneficial. In the other cases, there were detrimental effects on livelihoods, or a mixture of positive and negative effects. The effects on nutritional security reported in these studies were limited. Different enablers of change appear critical if transitions are to have positive outcomes. Policy environments, defined in terms of multi-level governance structures and institutions, are a key driver of systems change, as well as being enablers of and barriers to adaptation responses ( [[#Xu--2008|Xu et al., 2008]] ; [[#Namgay--2014|Namgay et al., 2014]] ; [[#Galvin--2015|Galvin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Schmidt--2016|Schmidt and Pearson, 2016]] ; [[#Liao--2017|Liao and Fei, 2017]] ). Policies around property and grazing rights are directly linked to small-scale food producer vulnerability, and land ownership changes will pose a key challenge as climate change impacts in the marginal lands intensify ( [[#Reid--2014|Reid et al., 2014]] ). Collective action at multiple scales and effective governance structures are also a key enabler of transformational change, for helping community initiatives overcome economic, social and technical barriers, and to strengthen social capital and farmer knowledge ( [[#Haglund--2011|Haglund et al., 2011]] ; [[#Reed--2017|Reed et al., 2017]] ; [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Fedele--2019|Fedele et al., 2019]] ). Market development has been shown to be a critical factor for successful adaptation at scale in sub-Saharan Africa ( [[#Ouédraogo--2017|Ouédraogo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Iiyama--2018|Iiyama et al., 2018]] ; [[#Totin--2018|Totin et al., 2018]] ). At the same time, financing mechanisms may be a crucial enabler for different food system actors: de-risking agricultural production and food system investments for producers and input suppliers, for example, that address core market failures and compensate actors for extra short-term costs that can lead to longer-term benefits, particularly for small-scale producers and businesses with comparatively low access to technologies and services ( [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ; Millan, 2019; see [[#5.1|Section 5.1]] 4.2.5).

The examples in Table 5.24 highlight the uneven impact of adaptation programmes and projects in general, due in part to differences in institutional support and failure of policies to take into account inequities ( [[#Clay--2019|Clay and King, 2019]] ; [[#Nightingale--2020|Nightingale et al., 2020]] ). Focusing on transformational adaptation, Vermeulen (2018) suggested the need to expand the remit of adaptation planning to consider the multi-functionality of agriculture and a system-wide view of food production and consumption. Several authors argue that transformational change must address the personal, practical and political spheres, in view of the role of power relations and worldviews in shaping practices, food security and inequity (O’Brien, 2015; [[#Nightingale--2017|Nightingale, 2017]] ; [[#O’Brien--2018|O’Brien, 2018]] ; [[#Eriksen--2019|Eriksen et al., 2019]] ; [[#Gosnell--2019|Gosnell et al., 2019]] ). If it involves new or unfamiliar technology, transformation may also be highly disruptive, and the added vulnerabilities of food system actors at risk will need to be addressed ( [[#Herrero--2020|Herrero et al., 2020]] ; see Box 5.5).

'''Table 5.24 |''' Agricultural and livelihood system transformations from systematic searches of the literature, which are at least partially attributable to climatic factors and that involve increased or decreased system integration, and major consequences of the change. Information in the table is from the references cited. Sources: updated from ( [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Thornton--2019|Thornton et al., 2019]] ).

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Underlying production system'''

! '''Primary drivers of change as stated'''

! '''Major processes of change as reported'''

! '''Consequences of change,''' '''if reported'''

! '''Reference'''

|-
| colspan="5"| '''''Extensive grassland-based systems'''''

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, northwest China

| Government policy, climate

| Sedentarisation

Diversification (crops, wages)

| Income decline, asset holding decline

| Liao and Fei, (2017)

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Peruvian Andes

| Multiple climatic and non-climatic drivers

| Diversification (wages, livestock assets, land)

Extensification

| Livestock accumulation in wealthy households, asset diversification in poorer households

| López-i-Gelats et al., (2015)

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Bhutan

| Government policy, labour constraints, climate

| Sedentarisation

Diversification (crops)

Exit

| Increased risk, loss of cultural identity, improved market access, livelihood ‘lock-in’ (inability to change rapidly)

| Namgay et al., (2014)

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Borana, Ethiopia

| Increase in climate variability, resource degradation

| Livestock herd diversification (more small stock and camels, fewer cattle)

| Enhanced household resilience

| Megersa et al., (2014)

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Tibetan Plateau

| Government policy, climate

| Sedentarisation

Diversification (crops, off-farm wages, trade)

| Increased food production, increased disease burden

| [[#Xu--2008|Xu et al. (2008)]]

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Afar, Ethiopia

| Government policy, climate

| Sedentarisation

Diversification (crops)

| Weakened institutions and cultural practices, deteriorating natural resources

| [[#Schmidt--2016|Schmidt and Pearson (2016)]]

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Kajiado, Kenya

| Government policy, climate, population growth

| Sedentarisation

Diversification (crops, wages, remittances)

Intensification

| Nutritional status remains poor

| [[#Galvin--2015|Galvin et al. (2015)]]

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, Mongolian Altai

| Government policy, climate

| Sedentarisation

Diversification (cashmere sales, forest products)

| Fodder shortages, forest over-use, unsustainable land use system

| [[#Lkhagvadorj--2013|Lkhagvadorj et al. (2013)]]

|-
| Extensive grassland based, Mongolia

| Increasing drought, grassland degradation

| Diversification (decreases in sheep and goats, increases in cattle, decreases in grain production, increases in fruit and vegetable production)

Exit from agriculture

| Increased household income from off-farm employment, more diverse diets

| [[#Du--2016|Du et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Extensive grassland-based, northern Kenya

| Climate change and variability

| Diversification (crops, wages, migration)

| Decreasing adaptive capacity, over-dependence on local knowledge for adaptation

| [[#Ogalleh--2012|Ogalleh et al. (2012)]]

|-
| colspan="5"| '''''Extensive systems with crops'''''

|-
| Extensive with crops, Eastern Cape, South Africa

| Multiple

| Intensification (richer households)

Exit and abandonment (poorer households)

Livelihood diversification

| Wildlife conflicts, loss of cultural identity

| [[#Shackleton--2013|Shackleton et al. (2013)]]

|-
| Extensive with crops, Peruvian highlands

| Economic globalisation, climate change

| Diversification (dairy production, wage migration)

Conversion (away from staple crops to feed production)

Intensification (feed production)

| Reduced vulnerability to climate change, but potential loss of both agrobiodiversity and food self-sufficiency identified by the author

| [[#Lennox--2015|Lennox (2015)]]

|-
| Extensive with crops, East Africa

| Climate

| Diversification (crops, livestock, wages)

Intensification (crops, intercrops)

| Increasing household vulnerability

| [[#Rufino--2013|Rufino et al. (2013)]]

|-
| Extensive with crops, Ghana

| Climate variability, temperature change

| Diversification (off-farm activities)

| Reduced vulnerability

| [[#Antwi-Agyei--2018|Antwi-Agyei et al. (2018)]]

|-
| Extensive smallholder cropping, Nepal

| Annual and seasonal warming. Increased precipitation with changes in patterns.

| Diversification and integration (from growing buckwheat and barley to vegetables and fruit trees)

| Increased household resilience due to diversification of production

| [[#Konchar--2015|Konchar et al. (2015)]]

|-
| Extensive smallholder mixed system, Niger

| Droughts and famines, and land degradation

| Large-scale regeneration of native trees and shrubs in the arable landscape

| Increased household income, effects on household food security not yet known

| [[#Haglund--2011|Haglund et al. (2011)]]

|-
| colspan="5"| '''''Other mixed coastal and forest systems'''''

|-
| Coastal rice-based, Bangladesh

| Increased salinity due to reduced dry season flows from rivers in India, use of groundwater for irrigation

| Diversification (from rice cultivation to aquaculture of shrimp and prawn)

| Increased household income, increased engagement of women, increased human disease vulnerability

| [[#Faruque--2017|Faruque et al. (2017)]]

|-
| Smallholder cropping systems, coastal Bangladesh

| Increasing frequency and severity of floods since 2008

| Diversification (re-allocation of land from crops to aquaculture)

Exit (migration away from village)

| Mixed impacts on household incomes and seasonal migration frequency

| Fenton et al. (2017)

|-
| Smallholder mixed cropping in forested landscapes in Indonesia

| Floods, drought, crop and livestock disease

| Diversification (re-allocation of land from forests to rubber plantations and rice)

Intensification (agroforestry)

Extensification (reforestation, forest protection)

| Locally, increased household incomes in general; more widely, some trade-offs with biodiversity, water, carbon stocks

| [[#Fedele--2018|Fedele et al. (2018)]]

|}

‘Transformation’, defined by [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC (2019a)]] as ‘a change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems’, is defined here as a redistribution of at least a third in the primary factors of production (land, labour, capital) and/or the outputs and outcomes of production (the types and amounts of production and consumption of goods and services arising from multi-functional agricultural systems) ( [[#Vermeulen--2018|Vermeulen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Thornton--2019|Thornton et al., 2019]] ).

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