Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/TS (section)

==== Land Use, Food Security and Food Production Systems ====

'''Limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, is projected to result in smaller net reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops,''' particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America; and in the CO<sub>2</sub>-dependent nutritional quality of rice and wheat (''high confidence''). A loss of 7–10% of rangeland livestock globally is projected for approximately 2°C of warming, with considerable economic consequences for many communities and regions (''medium confidence''). {3.4.6, 3.6, Box 3.1, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

'''Reductions in projected food availability are larger at 2°C than at 1.5°C of global warming in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean, central Europe and the Amazon (''medium confidence'').''' This suggests a transition from medium to high risk of regionally differentiated impacts on food security between 1.5°C and 2°C (''medium confidence''). Future economic and trade environments and their response to changing food availability (''medium confidence'') are important potential adaptation options for reducing hunger risk in low- and middle-income countries. {Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

'''Fisheries and aquaculture are important to global food security but are already facing increasing risks from ocean warming and acidification''(medium confidence)''. These risks are projected to increase at 1.5°C of global warming and impact key organisms such as fin fish and bivalves (e.g., oysters), especially at low latitudes (''medium confidence'').''' Small-scale fisheries in tropical regions, which are very dependent on habitat provided by coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, mangroves, seagrass and kelp forests, are expected to face growing risks at 1.5°C of warming because of loss of habitat (''medium confidence''). Risks of impacts and decreasing food security are projected to become greater as global warming reaches beyond 1.5°C and both ocean warming and acidification increase, with substantial losses likely for coastal livelihoods and industries (e.g., fisheries and aquaculture) (''medium to high confidence''). {3.4.4, 3.4.5, 3.4.6, Box 3.1, Box 3.4, Box 3.5, Cross-Chapter Box 6 in this chapter}

'''Land use and land-use change emerge as critical features of virtually all mitigation pathways that seek to limit global warming to 1.5°C (''high confidence'').''' Most least-cost mitigation pathways to limit peak or end-of-century warming to 1.5°C make use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), predominantly employing significant levels of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and/or afforestation and reforestation (AR) in their portfolio of mitigation measures (''high confidence''). {Cross-Chapter Box 7 in this chapter}

'''Large-scale deployment of BECCS and/or AR would have a far-reaching land and water footprint (''high confidence'').''' Whether this footprint would result in adverse impacts, for example on biodiversity or food production, depends on the existence and effectiveness of measures to conserve land carbon stocks, measures to limit agricultural expansion in order to protect natural ecosystems, and the potential to increase agricultural productivity (''medium agreement''). In addition, BECCS and/or AR would have substantial direct effects on regional climate through biophysical feedbacks, which are generally not included in Integrated Assessments Models (''high confidence''). {3.6.2, Cross-Chapter Boxes 7 and 8 in this chapter}

'''The impacts of large-scale CDR deployment could be greatly reduced if a wider portfolio of CDR options were deployed, if a holistic policy for sustainable land management were adopted, and if increased mitigation efforts were employed to strongly limit the demand for land, energy and material resources, including through lifestyle and dietary changes (''medium confidence'').''' In particular, reforestation could be associated with significant co-benefits if implemented in a manner than helps restore natural ecosystems (''high confidence''). {Cross-Chapter Box 7 in this chapter}