Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-5 (section)

=== CCP5.2.6 Natural Hazards and Disasters ===

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Climate- and weather-related disasters in mountain regions have increased over the last three decades ( ''medium confidence'' ). Disaster frequency shows increasing trends in the HKH, the Andes and mountain regions in Africa, whereas no clear trends are observed for the European Alps and Central Asia ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Froude--2018|Froude and Petley, 2018]] ; [[#Stäubli--2018|Stäubli et al., 2018]] ).

Floods, debris flows, landslides and avalanches are the most frequent hazards affecting the highest number of people in mountain regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Stäubli--2018|Stäubli et al., 2018]] ). Landslides count among the deadliest hazards globally, with over 150,000 reported fatalities for the period 1995–2014 ( [[#Haque--2019|Haque et al., 2019]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that the number of fatalities from landslides has increased globally over the past 20 years ( [[#Froude--2018|Froude and Petley, 2018]] ; [[#Haque--2019|Haque et al., 2019]] ), but there is ''limited evidence'' that this is due to changes in landslide event frequency and/or magnitude. Infrastructure expansion on unstable terrain can increase disaster risk ( [[#Zimmermann--2015|Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015]] ; [[#Huggel--2019|Huggel et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kirschbaum--2019|Kirschbaum et al., 2019]] ; [[#Schauwecker--2019|Schauwecker et al., 2019]] ; [[#Terzi--2019|Terzi et al., 2019]] ; [[#Motschmann--2020a|Motschmann et al., 2020a]] ; [[#Shugar--2021|Shugar et al., 2021]] ). A study from western Nepal concludes that the exposure of people and infrastructure to hazards has been the main cause of disasters (Muñoz-Torrero Manchado et al., 2021). Decreasing numbers of fatalities from disasters resulting from decreasing vulnerabilities have been reported in Europe and North America ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-13#13.2.2.1|Section 13.2.2.1]] ) ( [[#Gariano--2016|Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016]] ; [[#Strouth--2021|Strouth and McDougall, 2021]] ). Evidence from Africa suggests that disasters from climate-induced natural hazards in mountain areas are often due to droughts, pests and changes in rainfall and associated impacts on smallholder farmers’ agricultural livelihoods ( [[#Shikuku--2017|Shikuku et al., 2017]] ).

The characteristics of natural hazards in mountain areas have been widely explored, and evidence suggests that conditions favouring cascading impacts are a common feature ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-8#8.2.1.1|Section 8.2.1.1]] ) ( [[#Zimmermann--2015|Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015]] ; [[#Huggel--2019|Huggel et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kirschbaum--2019|Kirschbaum et al., 2019]] ; [[#Schauwecker--2019|Schauwecker et al., 2019]] ; [[#Terzi--2019|Terzi et al., 2019]] ; [[#Motschmann--2020a|Motschmann et al., 2020a]] ; [[#Shugar--2021|Shugar et al., 2021]] ). Compound and cascading impacts have affected people, ecosystems and infrastructure and generate significant spillovers across numerous sectors, resulting in destructive impacts ( [[#Nones--2016|Nones and Pescaroli, 2016]] ; [[#Kirschbaum--2019|Kirschbaum et al., 2019]] ; [[#Schauwecker--2019|Schauwecker et al., 2019]] ).

Most adaptation responses to natural hazards in mountain regions are reactive to specific climate stimuli or post-disaster recovery ( ''robust evidence, medium agreement'' ) ( [[#McDowell--2019|McDowell et al., 2019]] ; [[#Rasul--2020|Rasul et al., 2020]] ). Hard structural measures such as dikes, dam reservoirs and embankments have been widely employed to contain hazards, along with early warning systems, zonation and land management (Box 4.1, 10.4.4.5, 12.5.3 and 13.2.2). Awareness raising, preparedness and disaster response plans are increasingly used in the context of more unpredictable hazard trends (see Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17) ( [[#Allen--2016|Allen et al., 2016]] , 2018; [[#Hovelsrud--2018|Hovelsrud et al., 2018]] ). Ecosystem-based adaptations (EBAs) are widely implemented to mitigate risks from shallow landslides (e.g., afforestation and reforestation and improved forest management), floods (e.g., river restoration and renaturation) ( [[#Renaud--2016|Renaud et al., 2016]] ; [[#Klein--2019b|Klein et al., 2019b]] ) and droughts (e.g., adapting watershed) ( [[#Renaud--2016|Renaud et al., 2016]] ; [[#Klein--2019b|Klein et al., 2019b]] ; [[#Palomo--2021|Palomo et al., 2021]] ).

Evidence from different mountain regions shows that adaptation and risk reduction efforts are less successful if they focus on hazards or risks without considering diverse risk and value perceptions of the affected people ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#French--2015|French et al., 2015]] ; [[#Allen--2018|Allen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hovelsrud--2018|Hovelsrud et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kadetz--2018|Kadetz and Mock, 2018]] ; [[#Klein--2019b|Klein et al., 2019b]] ). Previous experience and local social contexts of exposure to climate-related disasters affect people’s perceptions and influence the patterns associated with disaster risk management and associated coping strategies ( ''high confidence'' ) (SROCC [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2|Chapter 2]] ( [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al., 2019]] )), ( [[#Kaul--2014|Kaul and Thornton, 2014]] ; [[#Shijin--2015|Shijin and Dahe, 2015]] ; [[#Landeros-Mugica--2016|Landeros-Mugica et al., 2016]] ; [[#Wirz--2016|Wirz et al., 2016]] ; [[#Carey--2017|Carey et al., 2017]] ; [[#Adler--2019|Adler et al., 2019]] ).

Important synergies exist between disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable development in mountain regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Zimmermann--2015|Zimmermann and Keiler, 2015]] ), where the multiple and diverse perceptions of risk and risk tolerance for natural hazards are relevant considerations ( [[#Schneiderbauer--2021|Schneiderbauer et al., 2021]] ). Global agreements for integrated disaster risk management and climate change adaptation ( [[#Alcántara-Ayala--2017|Alcántara-Ayala et al., 2017]] ), including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 ( [[#UNISDR--2015|UNISDR, 2015]] ), the SDGs ( [[#UN--2015|UN, 2015]] ), the Paris Agreement ( [[#UNFCCC--2015|UNFCCC, 2015]] ) and the New Urban Agenda-Habitat III (UN, 2016), create opportunities for synergies to address disaster risks (see also [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-6#6.3|Section 6.3]] ). Although these agreements are well established in international agendas, there is ''limited evidence'' of their implementation to address disaster risk reduction and adaptation in mountains ( [[#Alcántara-Ayala--2017|Alcántara-Ayala et al., 2017]] ).

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