Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

==== CCP6.2.3.2 Agriculture, forestry, livestock and aquaculture ====

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In addition to reindeer herding, Arctic agriculture primarily consists of local production of cool season crops, forage, small grains and livestock (sheep and goats) ( [[#Westergaard-Nielsen--2015|Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Natcher--2019|Natcher et al., 2019]] ). Short growing seasons, cold conditions, permafrost and moisture stress, especially along coasts, have historically limited production, but agriculture is generally increasing across the region ( [[#Westergaard-Nielsen--2015|Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015]] ). Although only ~0.2% of Alaska is farmland, area farmed and income from agriculture have increased 2% and 80%, respectively, since 2012 ( [[#United%20States%20Department%20of%20Agriculture--2017|United States Department of Agriculture, 2017]] ). It is ''likely'' that growing seasons have extended by 1–3 days per decade in interior Alaska, although some coastal areas exhibit declines in growing season ( [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ).

Arctic temperatures rarely exceed thermal tolerances for crops (e.g., 35–38°C across corn, rice and grain), and warming will provide new opportunities for food and forage production in areas such as southwest Greenland and interior Alaska ( [[#Westergaard-Nielsen--2015|Westergaard-Nielsen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Tripathi--2016|Tripathi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ). Higher atmospheric CO 2 favours plant growth if soil quality and condition are sufficient, but benefits can be offset by increased heat and water stress associated with climate change ( [[#Tripathi--2016|Tripathi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Unc--2021|Unc et al., 2021]] ). Growing seasons in Alaska will lengthen by 48–87 d yr -1 relative to historical growing season length (1981–2010), and the start of growing season is expected to shift 1–4 weeks earlier ( [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ). Feasible growing areas across the Arctic are expected to shift northward and increase within the 55°–69°N region ( [[#King--2018|King et al., 2018]] ). Permafrost thaw (Table CCP6.1) increases drainage, which is a potential benefit, but can also increase erosion, subsidence and irregular surfaces, inhibiting agriculture ( [[#Lader--2018|Lader et al., 2018]] ). Conversion of Arctic soils to croplands may also release carbon stored in vegetation and soils ( [[#Unc--2021|Unc et al., 2021]] ).

Arctic aquaculture contributes approximately 2% to global farm production (primarily Norwegian salmon ( ''Salmo salar'' ) as well as finfish in Iceland and Sweden and shellfish in Alaska), and will face increasing challenges from climate change ( [[#Troell--2017|Troell et al., 2017]] ) including increased frequency of storms (impacting sea farms), extreme temperatures and warmer conditions that favour pathogens, parasites and harmful algal blooms. Aquaculture feeds often depend on small pelagic fish or krill and supply may be affected by climate impacts on fisheries (Table CCP6.6) ( [[#Troell--2017|Troell et al., 2017]] ; [[#Chen--2018|Chen and Tung, 2018]] ; [[#Mørkøre--2020|Mørkøre et al., 2020]] ). Integrated policies and coordination across multiple food production sectors in Arctic regions are needed to address climate opportunities and challenges ( [[#Altdorff--2021|Altdorff et al., 2021]] ; [[#Unc--2021|Unc et al., 2021]] ).

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