Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.5.3 Vulnerabilities in Natural Systems, Ecosystems, and Human Systems ===

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Direct and indirect risks to natural systems are influenced by vulnerability to climate change as well as deterioration of ecosystem services. For example, about half of species assessed on the northeast United States continental shelf exhibited high to very high climate vulnerability due to temperature preferences and changes in habitat space (Hare et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r256|256]]</sup> ), with corresponding northward range shifts for many species (Kleisner et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r257|257]]</sup> ) and increased vulnerability for organisms or ecosystems unable to migrate or evolve at the rate required to adapt to ocean and cryosphere changes (Miller et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r258|258]]</sup> ). Non-climatic pressures also magnify the vulnerability of ocean and cryosphere ecosystems to climate-related changes, such as overfishing, coastal development, and pollution, including plastic pollution (Halpern et al., 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r259|259]]</sup> ; Halpern et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r260|260]]</sup> ; IPBES, 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r261|261]]</sup> ; IPBES, 2018b <sup>[[#fn:r262|262]]</sup> ; IPBES, 2018c <sup>[[#fn:r263|263]]</sup> ; IPBES, 2018d <sup>[[#fn:r264|264]]</sup> ). Conventional (fossil fuel-based) plastics produced in 2015 accounted for 3.8% of global CO 2 emissions and could reach up to 15% by 2050 (Zheng and Suh, 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r265|265]]</sup> ).

The vulnerability of mountain, Arctic and coastal communities is affected by social, political, historical, cultural, economic, institutional, environmental, geographical and/or demographic factors such as gender, age, race, class, caste, Indigeneity and disability (Thomas et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r266|266]]</sup> ; Sections 2.3.6 and 3.5; Cross-Chapter Box 9). Disparities and inequities in such factors may result in social exclusion, inequalities and non-climatic challenges to health and wellbeing, economic development and basic human rights (Adger et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r267|267]]</sup> ; Olsson et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r268|268]]</sup> ; Smith et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r269|269]]</sup> ). Those less advantaged often also have reduced access to and control over the social, financial, technological and environmental resources that are required for adaptation and transformation (Oppenheimer et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r270|270]]</sup> ; AMAP, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r271|271]]</sup> ), thus limiting options for coping and adapting to change (Hijioka et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r272|272]]</sup> ). However, even populations with greater wealth and privilege can be vulnerable to some climate change risks (Cardona et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r273|273]]</sup> ; Smith et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r274|274]]</sup> ), especially if sources of wealth and wellbeing depend upon established infrastructure that is poorly suited to ocean or cryosphere change.

Institutions and governance can shape vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and it can be challenging for weak governance structures to respond effectively to extreme or persistent climate change hazards (Sections 6.4 and 6.9; Cross-Chapter Box 3 in Chapter 1; Berrang-Ford et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r275|275]]</sup> ; Hijioka et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r276|276]]</sup> ). Furthermore, populations can be negatively impacted by inappropriate climate change mitigation and/or adaptation policies, particularly ones that further marginalise their knowledge, culture, values and livelihoods (Field et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r277|277]]</sup> ; Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1).

Vulnerability is not static in place and time, nor homogeneously experienced. The vulnerabilities of individuals, groups, and populations to climate change is dynamic and diverse, and reflects changing societal and environmental conditions (Thomas et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r278|278]]</sup> ). SROCC examines vulnerability following the conceptual definition presented in Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1, and vulnerability in human systems is treated in relative rather than absolute terms.

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