Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-5 (section)

=== CCP5.2.7 Synthesis of Observed Impacts and Attribution and Observed Adaptations ===

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==== CCP5.2.7.1 Observed Impacts and Attribution to Anthropogenic Climate Change ====

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The assessment of observed impacts identified a large number of impacts across all major mountain regions of the world and for a large variety of systems, based on more than 300 references (SMCCP5.2). The literature was assessed and the results classified on a per-region and per-system basis. Confidence statements on detection and attribution are based on expert judgement following IPCC guidelines ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-1#1.3.4|Section 1.3.4]] ), building on evidence from multiple sources in the literature ( [[#Mach--2017|Mach et al., 2017]] ) (SMCCP5.2). Figure CCP5.4 provides an overview of the assessment results.

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[[File:a73cf4f2f1c552dbb3cb3f07140e64fa IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP5_004.png]]

'''Figure CCP5.4 |''' '''Synthesis of detection and attribution of impacts of anthropogenic climate change on different natural and human systems in mountain regions.''' For each system and region assessed, the level of confidence for detection and for attribution to anthropogenic climate change is indicated. Also indicated is how strong the contribution of climate change is to the observed changes, considering climatic and non-climatic causal factors. Observed impacts were analysed in terms of negative impacts (e.g., economic or non-economic damages, losses, contribution to increasing risks for society), where the numbers refer to the percentage of references indicating negative impacts for a given impact. The percentage of local community perception indicates the percentage of all literature references for a given system and region that account for local knowledge. The number of references refers to the total number of literature references considered for an impact on a specific system and region. ‘Not assessed’ refers to ''limited evidence'' in the literature (SMCCP5.2 and Table SMCCP5.5–5.14).

Climate change impacts have been documented in mountains on all continents. A wide range of human and natural systems have been affected by climate change to date, including the cryosphere, water resources, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture, tourism, energy production, infrastructure, health and life, migration, disasters and community and cultural values. The confidence levels for the detection of impacts are generally in the range of medium to high. The contribution of climate change to detected impacts varies depending on the affected system and on climatic and non-climatic drivers. The highest levels of confidence for the attribution of detected impacts to anthropogenic climate change are related to the cryosphere. More generally, those impacts are more strongly driven by increasing temperatures and show higher confidence for attribution than those impacts driven mainly by precipitation changes. The level of contribution of climate change to observed impacts is predominantly medium or high, indicating the high sensitivity of natural and human systems in mountains to climate change. Furthermore, the vast majority of detected impacts imply negative impacts on natural and human systems ( ''high confidence'' ).

Local knowledge plays an important role in documenting impacts of climate change in mountain regions. Since IPCC AR5, the evidence for meaningful climate change impacts being reported using local knowledge sources has increased substantially ( ''high confidence'' ). Similarly, important regional gaps present in the IPCC AR5 are addressed here (e.g., Africa), resulting in a much more comprehensive and regionally balanced assessment and perspective.

Furthermore, the science of attributing negative impacts of climate change to anthropogenic emissions or even individual polluters is becoming increasingly important for climate litigation ( [[#Marjanac--2017|Marjanac et al., 2017]] ; [[#McCormick--2017|McCormick et al., 2017]] ; [[#Otto--2017|Otto et al., 2017]] ; [[#Setzer--2019|Setzer and Vanhala, 2019]] ), and there is emerging evidence that mountains are becoming sites of litigation cases, with cases, for instance, in Peru, Colombia and India ( [[#UNEP--2017|UNEP, 2017]] ). Recent studies put litigation cases such as the Lliuya vs RWE (the German multi-national energy company) case, on the risk of glacier lake floods in Peru, in a broader context of differentiated responsibilities and justice ( [[#Huggel--2020b|Huggel et al., 2020b]] ).

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==== CCP5.2.7.2 Synthesis of Observed Adaptation ====

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Extending from recent assessments of observed adaptation in high mountain areas ( [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al., 2019]] ; [[#McDowell--2019|McDowell et al., 2019]] ) new evidence for the geographically larger space for mountains assessed in this CCP is available from a mountain-specific reanalysis of the GAMI data set, which contains 423 articles reporting adaptation in mountains ( [[#Berrang-Ford--2021|Berrang-Ford et al., 2021]] ; [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3), some of which also include those reported in Section CCP5.2. In these articles, adaptation measures in mountains are reported from all regions worldwide, with a preponderance from Asia and Africa. Of all reported adaptations, 91% involve individuals or households, frequently engaged in smallholder agriculture and/or pastoralism; local governments are also often involved (31%), as are sub-national or local civil society actors (29%), while private-sector involvement remains scarce (below 10%). Food, fibre and other ecosystem products (76%) and poverty, livelihoods and sustainable development (55%) are by far the most often reported adaptations in mountains, followed by water and sanitation (28%) and health, well-being and communities (26%) ( [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2).

Adaptation measures most commonly found include farming-related changes (e.g., resilient or drought-tolerant crop varieties, irrigation techniques, crop storage and livestock insurance schemes), infrastructure development, Indigenous knowledge, community-based capacity-building and ecosystem-based adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2). Nature-based solutions (NbS) are an adaptation component in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of many mountain countries around the world ( [[#UNEP--2021|UNEP, 2021]] ). Furthermore, Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge are often reported as informing adaptation efforts, and Indigenous Peoples, marginalised people and gender issues are recognised in several national adaptation strategies, but autonomous responses are often insufficiently understood ( [[#Mishra--2019|Mishra et al., 2019]] ).

The GAMI-based reanalysis for mountains indicates that food security (75%), poverty (47%), consumption and production (36%), terrestrial and freshwater ecosystem services (19%) and clean water and sanitation (18%) are important aspects of vulnerability that adaptations address, with an emphasis on responses to climate-related shocks and stressors ( [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.2). The reanalysis also shows that more than 80% of adaptations in mountains are behavioural/cultural in nature, and more than 50% are ecosystem-based or technological or infrastructural.

About a third of the assessed adaptation activities are in the planning and early implementation stage, and around a fifth are in a stage of advanced implementation ( [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2). Several lines of evidence converge, indicating that most observed adaptations in mountains are incremental in nature and not transformative ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Mishra--2019|Mishra et al., 2019]] ; [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2). Nevertheless, some adaptation measures such as NbS were found to have important transformative potential in mountains if different knowledge types are combined, and community engagement and ecosystem management processes are in place ( [[#Palomo--2021|Palomo et al., 2021]] ).

Overall, and consistent with the findings in SROCC, the systematic monitoring and evaluation processes that have been implemented to track adaptation progress remain limited, and there is ''limited evidence'' and prevailing uncertainties on the extent to which observed adaptation efforts reduce risks ( [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al., 2019]] ; [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ; [[#UNEP--2021|UNEP, 2021]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2).

Limits to adaptation are found in a majority (&gt;80%) of the assessed adaptation studies; around half of the studies reported soft limits, and less than a third identified both hard and soft limits to adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2). Soft limits are frequently related to governance, economics and social/cultural constraints and can be overcome in principle through targeted efforts to address social conditions that impede adaptation planning and action. Hard limits are more frequently described as biophysical, such as precipitous declines in water supply. Examples of adaptation limits include lack of access to credit and markets, fixed livelihoods, insufficient awareness of climate risk, poor access to technology, the erosion of existing skills and knowledge, social inequities, lack of trust and social cohesion, inequitable gender norms and perceptions of conflict or scarcity. Furthermore, land tenure insecurity, poor integration of adaptation programmes across governing scales and a lack of decision-making power among vulnerable groups, along with inadequate funding for government-implemented adaptation programmes, are reported to limit adaptation ( [[#Mishra--2019|Mishra et al., 2019]] ; [[#McDowell--2021b|McDowell et al., 2021b]] ) (SMCCP5.3.2). Hard limits imply that further adaptation action is unfeasible, ineffective or unacceptable, resulting in inevitable losses and damages in mountain areas ( ''medium evidence, medium agreement'' ) ( [[#Huggel--2019|Huggel et al., 2019]] ).

Overall, adaptation in mountain regions is taking place in various ways, in different sectors, scales, levels, quality, and effectiveness ( ''high confidence'' ). Most responses are incremental, with asymmetries of power among state, institutions and individuals, costs or capital requirements of adaptation, lack of coordinated planning, resistance to institutional change, household risk aversion, and lack of access to information inhibiting more transformational responses (SMCCP5.3.2). Aside from poverty reduction, there is ''limited evidence'' of adaptations effectively remediating the underlying social determinants of vulnerability (e.g., gender, ethnic identity).

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