Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

==== CCP6.2.3.3 Commonalities in impacts and risks across polar fisheries ====

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Fisheries play an increasingly important role in addressing global food and nutritional deficits ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6.3|Section 3.6.3]] )( [[#Béné--2016|Béné et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ding--2017|Ding et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Costello--2020|Costello et al., 2020]] ), especially as climate change has already reduced global yields from key crops ( [[#Myers--2017|Myers et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ray--2019|Ray et al., 2019]] ; [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ). Antarctic and Arctic systems support some of the world’s largest fisheries, including those for Antarctic krill and Arctic walleye pollock ( ''Gadus chalcogrammus'' ), which constitute a critical source of protein and macronutrients to a growing population of seafood consumers, as well as various aquaculture and livestock feeds (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5) (Table CCP6.4) ( [[#Huntington--2013|Huntington et al., 2013]] ; [[#Raheem--2018|Raheem, 2018]] ; [[#Hicks--2019|Hicks et al., 2019]] ; [[#Steiner--2019|Steiner et al., 2019]] ; [[#FAO--2020|FAO, 2020]] ; [[#Cavanagh--2021|Cavanagh et al., 2021]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ; [[#Murphy--2021|Murphy et al., 2021]] ). Marine sources of protein and nutrition are important in transformational future scenarios where dietary shifts and provisioning policies provide multiple co-benefits to equity, food security and carbon mitigation ( [[#Springmann--2016|Springmann et al., 2016]] ; [[#Poore--2018|Poore and Nemecek, 2018]] ; [[#Thiault--2019|Thiault et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kim--2020|Kim et al., 2020]] ). Shifting spatial distributions of fish stocks have led to transboundary management challenges in the Atlantic, Bering Sea and Arctic areas previously inaccessible due to sea ice (Table CCP6.6) ( [[#Gullestad--2020|Gullestad et al., 2020]] ).

Cascading and interacting effects of climate change impacts in polar regions (Table CCP6.1) will reduce access to, and productivity of, future fisheries, and pose significant risks to regional and global food and nutritional security that increase with atmospheric carbon levels and declines in sea ice ( ''high confidence'' ) (Table CCP6.6). Although it is expected that fisheries will continue to contract poleward under future warming (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5) (Table CCP6.4) ( [[#Alabia--2018|Alabia et al., 2018]] ; [[#Morley--2018|Morley et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stevenson--2019|Stevenson and Lauth, 2019]] ; [[#Caccavo--2021|Caccavo et al., 2021]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ), global and regional models differ in their projections of fisheries catch potential for the polar regions under climate change. For example, some global-scale models project increases in potential fishery yields in Arctic Canada ( [[#Cheung--2018|Cheung, 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ; [[#Tai--2019|Tai et al., 2019]] ), whereas many observational studies and high-resolution regional projections suggest overall declines in biomass, productivity and yield associated with warming and loss of sea ice in multiple regions such as the Bering Sea ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hollowed--2020|Hollowed et al., 2020]] ; [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Mueter--2020|Mueter et al., 2020]] ; [[#Reum--2020|Reum et al., 2020]] ). Reduced production of macronutrients and protein by polar marine sources will disproportionately impact people already experiencing food and nutritional scarcity ( [[#Myers--2017|Myers et al., 2017]] ), marine-dependent communities within and beyond polar regions, and women and children who require higher quantities of macronutrients ( ''high confidence'' ).

Large-scale commercial fisheries are expected to continue to operate in polar regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Barange--2018|Barange et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cavanagh--2021|Cavanagh et al., 2021]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ), and will shift poleward ( ''high confidence'' ) toward geopolitical and management boundaries ( ''high confidence'' ) (CCP6.3.2.3; Table CCP6.6). Warming and climate impacts will continue to impact transboundary stocks and increase the potential for conflict in fisheries management ( [[#Pinsky--2018|Pinsky et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mendenhall--2020|Mendenhall et al., 2020]] ; [[#Palacios-Abrantes--2020|Palacios-Abrantes et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sumaila--2020|Sumaila et al., 2020]] ). Increased distances from ports to redistributed fishing grounds as well as increased frequency of storms and other extreme events are expected to increase risks and costs for fishery operations ( ''medium confidence'' ) and impact shore-based infrastructure and emergency response services (CCP6.2.4). Observed and expected increases in mobile ice combined with abrupt wind can create major hazards for fish operators in Antarctica and the Arctic, with consequences to human safety and total revenue (Dawson and et al., 2017; [[#Barber--2018|Barber et al., 2018]] ; [[#Grant--2021|Grant et al., 2021]] ). There will be increased demand for new port infrastructure across the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ); new ports have already been proposed for the Northern Bering Sea, and small craft harbour investments are being considered across Arctic Canada and Greenland. Ecosystem-based management (EBM), increasing diversity and flexibility in harvest portfolios as well as access to high-resolution ecological forecasts and projections, and climate-informed advice will promote adaptation and climate resilience in fisheries (Dawson and et al., 2017; [[#Brooks--2018|Brooks et al., 2018]] ; [[#Karp--2019|Karp et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hollowed--2020|Hollowed et al., 2020]] ). Coupling adaptation measures with global carbon mitigation strategies substantially decreases climate change risks to polar fisheries ( ''very high confidence'' ) (CCP6.3).

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