Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.11.1 Observed Impacts of Climate Change on African Economies and Livelihoods ===

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==== 9.11.1.1 Economic Output and Growth ====

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Increased average temperatures and lower rainfall have reduced economic output and growth in Africa, with larger negative impacts than other regions of the world ( [[#Abidoye--2015|Abidoye and Odusola, 2015]] ; [[#Burke--2015a|Burke et al., 2015a]] ; [[#Acevedo--2017|Acevedo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kalkuhl--2020|Kalkuhl and Wenz, 2020]] ). In one estimate, GDP per capita is on average 13.6% lower for African countries than it would be if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred ( [[#Diffenbaugh--2019|Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019]] ), although impacts vary substantially across countries (see Figure 9.37). As such, global warming has increased economic inequality between temperate, northern Hemisphere countries and those in Africa ( [[#Diffenbaugh--2019|Diffenbaugh and Burke, 2019]] ). Warming also leads to differential economic damages within Africa ( [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al., 2020]] ). One estimate found a 1°C increase in 20-year average temperature reduced GDP growth by 0.67 percentage points, with the greatest impacts in Central African Republic, DRC and Zimbabwe ( [[#Abidoye--2015|Abidoye and Odusola, 2015]] ). Changes in rainfall patterns also influence individual and national incomes. Had total rainfall not declined between 1960 and 2000, the gap between African GDP and that of the rest of the developing world would be 15–40% smaller than today, with the largest impacts in countries heavily dependent on agriculture and hydropower ( [[#Barrios--2010|Barrios et al., 2010]] ).

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[[File:3e92195da20fcb17e8b468e6d8200654 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_9_037.png]]

'''Figure 9.37 |''' '''Observed aggregate economic impacts and projected risks from climate change in Africa.'''

'''(a)''' Estimated effect of human-caused climate change on GDP per capita for 48 African countries between 1991 and 2010.

'''(b)''' Projected effect on GDP per capita of global warming of ~4°C by 2100 compared to economic growth with no further global warming after 2010.

'''(c)''' Projected percentage increase in GDP per capita of holding global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C above pre-industrial level.

'''(d)''' Probability of realising any economic benefits by holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C. Data sources: Burke et al. (2015b); (2018a); [[#Diffenbaugh--2019|Diffenbaugh and Burke (2019)]] .

Aggregate macroeconomic impacts manifest through many channels ( [[#Carleton--2016|Carleton et al., 2016]] ). Macroeconomic evidence suggests aggregate impacts occurred largely through losses in agriculture with a smaller role for manufacturing ( [[#Barrios--2010|Barrios et al., 2010]] ; [[#Burke--2015b|Burke et al., 2015b]] ; [[#Acevedo--2017|Acevedo et al., 2017]] ). Sector-specific analyses confirm that declines in productivity of food crops, commodity crops and overall land productivity contribute to lower macroeconomic performance under rising temperatures ( [[#Schlenker--2010|Schlenker and Lobell, 2010]] ; [[#Bezabih--2011|Bezabih et al., 2011]] ; [[#Jaramillo--2011|Jaramillo et al., 2011]] ; [[#Lobell--2011|Lobell et al., 2011]] ; [[#Adhikari--2015|Adhikari et al., 2015]] ). Labour supply and productivity declines in manufacturing, industry, services and daily wage labour have been observed in other regions ( [[#Graff%20Zivin--2014|Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2014]] ; [[#Somanathan--2015|Somanathan et al., 2015]] ; [[#Day--2019|Day et al., 2019]] ; [[#Nath--2020|Nath, 2020]] ) and contribute to aggregate economic declines, countering aggregate poverty reduction strategies and other SDGs ( [[#Satterthwaite--2017|Satterthwaite and Bartlett, 2017]] ; [[#Day--2019|Day et al., 2019]] ). In a case study of a rural town in South Africa, over 80% of businesses (both formal and informal) lost over 50% of employees and revenue due to agricultural drought ( [[#Hlalele--2016|Hlalele et al., 2016]] ). Drought and extreme heat events have also reduced tourism revenues in Africa ( [[#9.6.3|Section 9.6.3]] ). Infrastructure damage and transport disruptions from adverse climate events reduce access to services and growth opportunities ( [[#Chinowsky--2014|Chinowsky et al., 2014]] ). In global data sets including Africa, tropical cyclones have been shown to have large and long-lasting negative impacts on GDP growth ( [[#Hsiang--2014|Hsiang and Jina, 2014]] ).

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==== 9.11.1.2 Human Capital Development and Education ====

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Investments in human capital, particularly education, are critical for socioeconomic development and poverty reduction providing valuable skills and expanding labour market opportunities. Much progress has been made in improving education access, however, in sub-Saharan Africa, 32% of children, adolescents and youth (~97 million people) remain out of school ( [[#UNESCO%20Institute%20of%20Statistics--2018|UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2018]] ). Climate variability and change can undermine educational attainment with negative impacts on later life earning potential and adaptive capacity to future climate change (Figure 9.11; [[#Lutz--2014|Lutz et al., 2014]] ).

Several studies indicate that experiencing low rainfall, warming temperatures or extreme weather events reduce education attainment and that future climate change may reduce children’s school participation, particularly for agriculturally dependent and poor urban households. In west and central Africa, experiencing lower-than-average rainfall during early life is associated with up to 1.8 fewer years of completed schooling in adolescence, while more rainfall and milder temperatures during the main agricultural season are positively associated with educational attainment for boys and girls in rural Ethiopia ( [[#Randell--2016|Randell and Gray, 2016]] ; [[#Randell--2019|Randell and Gray, 2019]] ). In Uganda, low rainfall reduced primary school enrolment by 5% for girls ( [[#Björkman-Nyqvist--2013|Björkman-Nyqvist, 2013]] ), and in Malawi, ''in utero'' drought exposure was associated with delayed school entry among boys ( [[#Abiona--2017|Abiona, 2017]] ). In rural Zimbabwe, experiencing drought conditions during the first few years of life was associated with fewer grades of completed schooling in adolescence, which translates into a 14% reduction in lifetime earnings ( [[#Alderman--2006|Alderman et al., 2006]] ). In Cameroon, warming temperatures have negatively affected plantain yields, which in turn is linked to lower educational attainment ( [[#Fuller--2018|Fuller et al., 2018]] ). One suggested mechanism underlying the relationship between climate and schooling is that adverse climatic conditions can reduce income among farming households, leading them to pull children out of school ( [[#Randell--2016|Randell and Gray, 2016]] ; [[#Marchetta--2019|Marchetta et al., 2019]] ). Other potential mechanisms are poor harvests from droughts or supply interruptions from extreme weather events leading to undernutrition among young children, negatively affecting cognitive development and schooling potential ( [[#Alderman--2006|Alderman et al., 2006]] ; [[#Bartlett--2008|Bartlett, 2008]] ).

More research is needed on climate change impacts on education in Africa. This information can help ensure families keep children in school amid climate-related income shocks. For example, in Mexico, a conditional cash transfer programme mitigated the negative effect of natural disasters on school attendance ( [[#de%20Janvry--2006|de Janvry et al., 2006]] ).

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