Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.11.2 Projected Risks of Climate Change for African Economies and Livelihoods ===

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Future warming will have negative consequences for economic growth in Africa, relative to a future without additional climate change and assuming current levels of adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Dell--2012|Dell et al., 2012]] ; 2015a; [[#Burke--2015b|Burke et al., 2015b]] ; [[#Acevedo--2017|Acevedo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al., 2020]] ). Statistically based empirical analyses project that global warming of 2.3°C by 2050 could lower GDP per capita across sub-Saharan Africa by 12% (SSP2) ( [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al., 2020]] ) and 80% for warming &gt;4°C by 2100 (SSP5, 75% for MENA) ( [[#Burke--2015b|Burke et al., 2015b]] ). Depending on the future socioeconomic scenario, this could increase global inequality and leave some African countries poorer than at present ( [[#Burke--2015b|Burke et al., 2015b]] ). Inequalities between African countries are projected to widen under climate change, with negative impacts estimated to be largest in west and east Africa ( [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al., 2020]] ). While negative impacts across African economies are highly ''likely'' under climate change, precise magnitudes are debated in the literature. Alternative statistical analyses suggest a 12% reduction of GDP per capita by 2100 under RCP8.5 across African countries relative to a future without climate change ( [[#Kahn--2021|Kahn et al., 2021]] ), while computable general equilibrium models generate smaller damages as well, ranging from 3.8% reduction across sub-Saharan Africa in 2060 under warming of 2.5°C ( [[#Dellink--2019|Dellink et al., 2019]] ) to 12% across all of Africa in 2100 under warming of 5°C (SSP4) ( [[#Takakura--2019|Takakura et al., 2019]] ).

Substantial avoided economic damages to African countries are projected from ambitious, near-term global mitigation limiting global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels ( ''high confidence'' ). Increased economic damage forecasts for Africa under high emissions scenarios start diverging rapidly from low emissions scenarios by the 2030s ( [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al., 2020]] ). Across nearly all African countries, GDP per capita is projected to be at least 5% higher by 2050 and 10–20% higher by 2100 if global warming is held to 1.5°C versus 2°C ( [[#Burke--2018a|Burke et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al., 2020]] ) (Figure 9.37). The probability of this positive gain to GDP per capita from achieving 1.5°C versus 2°C is reported as close to 100% ( [[#Burke--2018a|Burke et al., 2018a]] ). While these estimates rely on temperature and rainfall-driven damages, SLR also poses a risk for Africa. By 2050, damages from SLR across sub-Saharan Africa could reach 2–4% of GDP, depending on the socioeconomic, adaptation and emissions scenario ( [[#Parrado--2020|Parrado et al., 2020]] ).

Heat stress is projected to reduce working hours and work capacity under climate change, with among the largest declines in sub-Saharan Africa and for workers in vulnerable occupation groups, such as those working outdoors ( [[#Kjellstrom--2014|Kjellstrom et al., 2014]] ; 2016; [[#de%20Lima--2021|de Lima et al., 2021]] ; Chapter 5). Global warming of 3°C is projected to reduce labour capacity in agriculture by 30–50% in sub-Saharan Africa (relative to the baseline in 1986–2005) ( [[#de%20Lima--2021|de Lima et al., 2021]] ). These effects lead to substantial aggregate losses, for example, in west Africa, labour productivity impacts under a 3°C temperature increase are estimated to cost up to 8% of GDP ( [[#Roson--2016|Roson and Sartori, 2016]] ). Manufacturing productivity across Africa is projected to decline under RCP8.5 by 0–15% by 2080–2099, with the largest effects in the DRC, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mozambique and Malawi ( [[#Nath--2020|Nath, 2020]] ).

Large risks to road, rail and water infrastructure are projected from climate change with substantial economic cost implications (see [[#9.9.3|Section 9.9.3]] ; Box 9.5).

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