Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-1 (section)

==== 1.2.2.1 Concepts related to risk, uncertainty and confidence ====

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In context of the SRCCL, risk refers to the potential for the adverse consequences for human or (land-based) ecological systems, arising from climate change or responses to climate change. Risk related to climate change impacts integrates across the hazard itself, the time of exposure and the vulnerability of the system; the assessment of all three of these components, their interactions and outcomes, is uncertain (see Glossary for expanded definition, and Section 7.1.2). For instance, a risk to human society is the continued loss of productive land which might arise from climate change, mismanagement, or a combination of both factors. However, risk can also arise from the potential for adverse consequences from responses to climate change, such as widespread deployment of bioenergy which is intended to reduce GHG emissions and thus limit climate change, but can present its own risks to food security (Chapters 5–7).

Demonstrating with some statistical certainty that the climate or the land system affected by climate or land use has changed (detection),

and evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to that change (with a formal assessment of confidence (attribution); see Glossary) remain challenging aspects in both observations and models (Rosenzweig and Neofotis 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r390|390]]</sup> ; Gillett et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r391|391]]</sup> ; Lean 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r392|392]]</sup> ). Uncertainties arising for example, from missing or imprecise data, ambiguous terminology, incomplete process representation in models, or human decision-making contribute to these challenges, and some examples are provided in this subsection. In order to reflect various sources of uncertainties in the state of scientific understanding, IPCC assessment reports provide estimates of confidence (Mastrandrea et al. 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r393|393]]</sup> ). This confidence language is also used in the SRCCL (Figure 1.5).

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'''Figure 1.5'''

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[[File:55b66f2e798c07918f09fffeaf51f20b Figure-1.5-1024x511.jpg]]

Use of confidence language.

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