Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.3.1.1 Observed Impacts ====

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Widespread and severe impacts on ecosystems and species are now evident across the region ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Table 11.4). Climate impacts reflect both ongoing change and discrete extreme weather events ( [[#Harris--2018|Harris et al., 2018]] ), and the climatic change signal is emerging despite confounding influences ( [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] ). Fundamental shifts are observed in the structure and composition of some ecosystems and associated services (Table 11.4). Impacts documented for species include global and local extinctions, severe regional population declines and phenotypic responses (Table 11.4). In terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, land use impacts are interacting with climate, resulting in significant changes to ecosystem structure, composition and function ( [[#Bergstrom--2021|Bergstrom et al., 2021]] ), with some landscapes experiencing catastrophic impacts (Table 11.4). Some of the observed changes may be irreversible where projected impacts on ecosystems and species persist (Table 11.5). Of note is the global extinction of an endemic mammal species, the Bramble Cay melomys ( ''Melomys rubicola'' ), from the loss of habitat attributable in part to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surges in the Torres Strait (Table 11.4).

Natural forest and woodland ecosystem processes are experiencing differing impacts and responses depending on the climate zone ( ''high confidence'' ). In Australia, an overall increase in the forest fire danger index, associated with warming and drying trends (Table 11.2a), has been observed particularly for southern and eastern Australia in recent decades (Box 11.1). The 2019–2020 mega wildfires of south eastern Australia burnt between 5.8 and 8.1 million hectares of mainly temperate broadleaf forest and woodland, but with substantial areas of rainforest also impacted, and were unprecedented in their geographic location, spatial extent and forest types burnt ( [[#Boer--2020|Boer et al., 2020]] ; [[#Nolan--2020|Nolan et al., 2020]] ; [[#Abram--2021|Abram et al., 2021]] ; [[#Collins--2021|Collins et al., 2021]] ; [[#Godfree--2021|Godfree et al., 2021]] ). The human influence on these events is evident ( [[#Abram--2021|Abram et al., 2021]] ; [[#van%20Oldenborgh--2021|van Oldenborgh et al., 2021]] ) (Box 11.1). The fires had significant consequences for wildlife ( [[#Hyman--2020|Hyman et al., 2020]] ; [[#Nolan--2020|Nolan et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ward--2020|Ward et al., 2020]] ) (Box 11.1) and flow-on impacts for aquatic fauna ( [[#Silva--2020|Silva et al., 2020]] ). In southern Australia, deeply rooted native tree species can access soil and groundwater resources during drought, providing a level of natural resilience ( [[#Bell--2020|Bell and Nikolaus Callow, 2020]] ; [[#Liu--2020|Liu et al., 2020]] ). However, the Northern Jarrah forests of south western Australia have experienced tree mortality and dieback from long-term precipitation decline and acute heatwave-compounded drought ( [[#Wardell-Johnson--2015|Wardell-Johnson et al., 2015]] ; [[#Matusick--2018|Matusick et al., 2018]] ). While there is limited information on observed impacts for New Zealand, increased mast seeding events in beech forest ecosystems that stimulate invasive population irruptions have been recorded ( [[#Schauber--2002|Schauber et al., 2002]] ; [[#Tompkins--2013|Tompkins et al., 2013]] ).

'''Table 11.2a |''' Observed climate change for Australia.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Climate variable

! Observed change

! References

|-
| Air temperature over land

| Increased by 1.4°C from 1910 to 2019, with 2019 being the warmest year; 9 of the 10 warmest on record have occurred since 2005; clear anthropogenic attribution.

| ( [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#Trewin--2020|Trewin et al., 2020]] ; BoM, 2021a; [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Sea surface temperature

| Increased by 1.0°C from 1900 to 2019 (0.09°C/decade), with an increase of 0.16°C–0.20°C/decade since 1950 in the southeast. Eight of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2010.

| ( [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] )

|-
| Air temperature extremes over land

| More extremely hot days and fewer extremely cold days in most regions. Weaker warming trends in minimum temperatures in southeast Australia compared to elsewhere during 1960–2016. Frost frequency in southeast and southwest Australia has been relatively unchanged since the 1980s. Very high monthly maximum or minimum temperatures that occurred around 2% of the time in the past (1960–1989) now occur 11–12% of the time (2005–2019). Multi-day heatwave events have increased in frequency and duration across many regions since 1950. In 2019, the national average maximum temperature exceeded the 99th percentile on 43 days (more than triple the number in any of the years prior to 2000) and exceeded 39°C on 33 days (more than the number observed from 1960 to 2018 combined).

| ( [[#Perkins-Kirkpatrick--2016|Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al., 2016]] ; [[#Alexander--2017|Alexander and Arblaster, 2017]] ; [[#Pepler--2018|Pepler et al., 2018]] ; [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#Perkins-Kirkpatrick--2020|Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis, 2020]] ; [[#Trancoso--2020|Trancoso et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Sea temperature extremes

| Intense marine heatwave in 2011 near western Australia (peak intensity 4°C, duration 100 days). The likelihood of an event of this duration is estimated to be about five times higher than under pre-industrial conditions. Marine heatwave over northern Australia in 2016 (peak intensity 1.5°C, duration 200 days). Marine heatwave in the Tasman Sea and around southeast mainland Australia and Tasmania from September 2015 to May 2016 (peak intensity 2.5°C, duration 250 days)—likelihood of an event of this intensity and duration has increased about 50-fold. Marine heatwave in the Tasman Sea from November 2017 to March 2018 (peak intensity 3°C, duration 100 days). Marine heatwave on the GBR in 2020 (peak intensity 1.2°C, duration 90 days)

| ( [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2018|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2018|CSIRO, 2018]] ; [[#BoM--2020|BoM, 2020]] ; [[#Laufkötter--2020|Laufkötter et al., 2020]] ; [[#Oliver--2021|Oliver et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Rainfall

| Northern Australian rainfall has increased since the 1970s, with an attributable human influence. April to October rainfall has decreased 16% since the 1970s in southwestern Australia (partly due to human influence) and 12% from 2000–2019 in south-eastern Australia. The lowest recorded average rainfall in Australia occurred in 2019.

| ( [[#Delworth--2014|Delworth and Zeng, 2014]] ; [[#Knutson--2018|Knutson and Zeng, 2018]] ; [[#Dey--2019|Dey et al., 2019]] ; [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; BoM, 2021a)

|-
| Rainfall extremes

| Hourly extreme rainfall intensities increased by 10–20% in many locations between 1966 to1989 and 1990 to 2013. Daily rainfall associated with thunderstorms increased 13–24% from 1979 to 2016, particularly in northern Australia. Daily rainfall intensity increased in the northwest from 1950 to 2005 and in the east from 1911 to 2014 and decreased in the southwest and Tasmania from 1911 to 2010.

| ( [[#Donat--2016|Donat et al., 2016]] ; [[#Alexander--2017|Alexander and Arblaster, 2017]] ; [[#Evans--2017|Evans et al., 2017]] ; [[#Guerreiro--2018|Guerreiro et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dey--2019|Dey et al., 2019]] ; [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#Bruyère--2020|Bruyère et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dowdy--2020|Dowdy, 2020]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ; [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Drought

| Major Australian droughts occurred in 1895–1902, 1914–1915, 1937–1945, 1965–1968, 1982–1983, 1997–2009 and 2017–2019. Fewer droughts have occurred across most of northern and central Australia since the 1970s, and more droughts have occurred in the southwest since the 1970s; drought trends in the southeast have been mixed since the late 1990s.

| ( [[#Gallant--2013|Gallant et al., 2013]] ; [[#Delworth--2014|Delworth and Zeng, 2014]] ; [[#Alexander--2017|Alexander and Arblaster, 2017]] ; [[#Dai--2017|Dai and Zhao, 2017]] ; [[#Knutson--2018|Knutson and Zeng, 2018]] ; [[#Dey--2019|Dey et al., 2019]] ; [[#Spinoni--2019|Spinoni et al., 2019]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ; [[#Rauniyar--2020|Rauniyar and Power, 2020]] ; BoM, 2021b; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Wind speed

| Wind speed decreased 0.067 m/s/decade over land in the period 1941–2016, with a decrease of 0.062 m/s/decade over land from 1979 to 2015, and a decrease of 0.05–0.10 m/s/decade over land from 1988 to 2019. Wind speed increased 0.02 m/s/year across the Southern Ocean during 1985–2018.

| ( [[#Troccoli--2012|Troccoli et al., 2012]] ; [[#Young--2019|Young and Ribal, 2019]] ; [[#Blunden--2020|Blunden and Arndt, 2020]] ; [[#Azorin-Molina--2021|Azorin-Molina et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Sea level rise

| Relative SLR was 3.4 mm/year from 1993 to 2019, which includes the influence of internal variability (e.g., ENSO) and anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

| ( [[#Watson--2020|Watson, 2020]] )

|-
| Fire

| An increase in the number of extreme fire weather days from July 1950 to June 1985 compared to July 1985 to June 2020, especially in the south and east, partly attributed to climate change. More dangerous conditions for extreme pyro convection events since 1979, particularly in south-eastern Australia. Extreme fire weather in 2019–2020 was at least 30% more likely due to climate change.

| ( [[#Dowdy--2018|Dowdy and Pepler, 2018]] ; [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#van%20Oldenborgh--2021|van Oldenborgh et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Tropical cyclones and other storms

| Fewer tropical cyclones since 1982, with a 22% reduction in translation speed over Australian land areas in the period1949–2016. No significant trend in the number of East Coast Lows. From 1979 to 2016, thunderstorms and dry lightning decreased in spring and summer in northern and central Australia, decreased in the north in autumn, and increased in the southeast in all seasons. Convective rainfall intensity per thunderstorm increased by about 20% in the north and 10% in the south. An increase in the frequency of large to giant hail events across southeastern Queensland and northeastern and eastern New South Wales in the most recent decade. Seven major hail storms over eastern Australia from 2014 to 2020 and three major floods over eastern Australia from 2019 to 2021.

| ( [[#Pepler--2015b|Pepler et al., 2015b]] ; [[#Ji--2018|Ji et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kossin--2018|Kossin, 2018]] ; [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#Dowdy--2020|Dowdy, 2020]] ; [[#ICA--2021|ICA, 2021]] ; [[#Bruyère--2020|Bruyère et al., 2020]] )

|-
| Snow

| At Spencers Creek (1830 m elevation) in NSW, annual maximum snow depth decreased 10% and length of snow season decreased 5% during 2000–2013 relative to 1954–1999. At Rocky Valley Dam (1650 m elevation) in Victoria, annual maximum snow depth decreased 5.7 cm/decade from 1954 to 2011. At Mt Hotham, Mt Buller and Falls Creek (1638–1760 m elevation), annual maximum snow depth decreased 15%/decade from 1988 to 2013.

| ( [[#Bhend--2012|Bhend et al., 2012]] ; [[#Fiddes--2015|Fiddes et al., 2015]] ; [[#Pepler--2015a|Pepler et al., 2015a]] ; [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] )

|-
| Ocean acidification

| Average pH of surface waters has decreased since the 1880s by about 0.1 (over 30% increase in acidity).

| ( [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM and]] [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] )

|}

'''Table 11.3b |''' Projected climate change for New Zealand. Projections are given for different RCPs (RCP2.6 is low, RCP4.5 is medium, RCP8.5 is high) and years (e.g., 20-year period centred on 2090). Uncertainty ranges are 5th–95th percentiles, and median projections are given in square brackets where possible. Preliminary projections (10th–90th percentiles) based on CMIP6 models are included for some climate variables from the [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC (2021)]] WGI report.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Climate variable

! Projected change (year, RCP) relative to 1986–2005

! References

|-
| Air temperature

| Annual mean temperature

* +0.2–1.3°C [0.7°C] (2040, RCP2.6), +0.5–1.7°C [1.0°C] (2040, RCP8.5), +0.1–1.4°C [0.7°C] (2090, RCP2.6), +2.0–4.6°C [3.0°C] (2090, RCP8.5)
* More warming in summer and autumn, less in winter and spring
* More warming in the north than the south
* Preliminary CMIP6 projections: +0.4°C–1.1°C (2050, SSP1-RCP2.6), +0.9°C–1.7°C (2050, SSP5-RCP8.5), +0.5°C–1.5°C (2090, SSP1-RCP2.6), +2.2°C–4.1°C (2090, SSP5-RCP8.5) relative to 1995–2014

| ( [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] );

( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] )

|-
| Sea surface temperature

| * +1.0°C (2045, RCP8.5),
* +2.5°C (2090, RCP8.5).

| ( [[#Law--2018b|Law et al., 2018b]] )

|-
| Air temperature extremes

| * Annual frequency of days over 25°C may increase 20–60% (2040, RCP2.6) to 50–100% (2040, RCP8.5), and 20–60% (2090, RCP2.6) to 130–350% (2090, RCP8.5)
* Annual frost frequency may decrease 20–60% (2040, RCP2.6) to 30–70% (2040, RCP8.5), and 20–60% (2090, RCP2.6) to 70–95% (2090, RCP8.5).

| ( [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] )

|-
| Rainfall

| Annual mean rainfall

* Waikato, Auckland and Northland: −7 to +7% (2040, RCP2.6), −8 to +5% (2040, RCP8.5), −5 to +11% [+2%] (2090, RCP2.6), −15 to +12% [−2%] (2090, RCP8.5)
* Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne: −8 to +8% [−1%] (2040, RCP2.6), −12 to +7% [−2%] (2040, RCP8.5), −9 to +4% [−2%] (2090, RCP2.6), −15 to +15% [−3%] (2090, RCP8.5)
* Taranaki, Manawatū and Wellington: −4 to +9% [+1%] (2040, RCP2.6), −6 to +10% [+1%] (2040, RCP8.5), −6 to +15% [+3%] (2090, RCP2.6), −14 to +14% [+2%] (2090, RCP8.5)
* Tasman-Nelson and Marlborough: −3 to +5% [+1%] (2040, RCP2.6), −3 to +8% [+1%] (2040, RCP8.5), −4 to +8% [+2%] (2090, RCP2.6), −3 to +15% [+5%] (2090, RCP8.5)
* West coast and Southland: −4 to +12% [+3%] (2040, RCP2.6), −4 to +12% [+4%] (2040, RCP8.5), −2 to +18% [+5%] (2090, RCP2.6), −8 to +23% (2090, RCP8.5)
* Canterbury and Otago: −7 to +15% [+3%] (2040, RCP2.6), −7 to +19% [+3%] (2040, RCP8.5), −6 to +18% (2090, RCP2.6), −9 to +28% [+8%] (2090, RCP8.5)

| ( [[#Liu--2018|Liu et al., 2018]] ; [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] )

|-
| Rainfall extremes

| Intensity of daily rain with 20-year recurrence interval

* +2.8 to 7.2% [5%] (2040, RCP2.6)
* +4.2 to 10.4% [7%] (2040, RCP8.5)
* +2.8 to 7.2% [5%] (2090, RCP2.6)
* +12.6 to 31.5% [2%] (2090, RCP8.5)

| ( [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] )

|-
| Drought

| Increase in potential evapotranspiration deficit

* Northern and eastern North Island: 100–200 mm (2090, RCP8.5)
* Western North Island: 50–100 mm (2090, RCP8.5)
* Eastern South Island: 50–200 mm (2090, RCP8.5)
* Western South Island: 0–50 mm (2090, RCP8.5)

| ( [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] )

|-
| Wind speed

| 99th percentile of daily mean wind speed

* Northern North Island: 0 to −5% (2090, RCP8.5)
* Southern North Island: 0 to +5% (2090, RCP8.5)
* South Island: 0 to +10% (2090, RCP8.5)

| ( [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] )

|-
| Sea level rise

| * 23 cm (2050, RCP2.6)
* 28 cm (2050, RCP8.5)
* 42 cm (2090 RCP2.6)
* 67 cm (2090 RCP8.5)

These projections have not been updated to include an Antarctic dynamic ice sheet factor which increased global sea level projections for RCP 8.5 by approx. 10 cm. Preliminary CMIP6 projections indicate 40–50 cm (2090, SSP1-RCP2.6) and 70–90 cm (2090, SSP5-RCP8.5).

| ( [[#MfE--2017a|MfE, 2017a]] ; [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] )

|-
| Sea level extremes

| For a rise in sea level of 30 cm, the 1-in-100-year high water levels may occur about

* Every 4 years at the port of Auckland
* Every 2 years at the port of Dunedin
* Once a year at the port of Wellington
* Once a year at the port of Christchurch

| ( [[#PCE--2015|PCE, 2015]] )

|-
| Fire

| * Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) increases 50–100% in coastal Marlborough and Otago, 40–50% in Wellington and 30–40% in Taranaki and Whanganui, 0–30% elsewhere (2050, A1B).
* Number of days with very high or extreme fire weather increase &gt;100% in coastal Otago, Marlborough and the lower North Island, 50–100% in Taupō and Rotorua, 20–50% in the rest of the North Island, and little change in the rest of the South Island (2050, A1B).

| ( [[#Pearce--2011|Pearce et al., 2011]] )

|-
| Tropical cyclones and other storms

| Poleward shift of mid-latitude cyclones and potential for a small reduction in frequency

| ( [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] )

|-
| Snow and ice

| * Maximum snow depth on 31 August may decline by 0–10% (2040, A1B) and 26–54% (2090, A1B).
* Annual snow days may be reduced by 5–15 days (2040, RCP2.6), 10–25 days (2040, RCP8.5), 5–15 days (2090, RCP2.6) and 15–45 days (2090 RCP8.5).
* Relative to 2015, New Zealand glaciers are projected to lose 36%, 53% and 77% of their mass by the end of the century under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.
* Over the period 2006–2099, New Zealand glaciers are projected to lose 50 to 92% of their ice volume for RCP2.6 to RCP8.5.

| ( [[#Hendrikx--2013|Hendrikx et al., 2013]] ; [[#MfE--2018|MfE, 2018]] ; [[#Marzeion--2020|Marzeion et al., 2020]] ; [[#Anderson--2021|Anderson et al., 2021]] )

|-
| Ocean acidification

| pH is projected to drop by about 0.1 (2090, RCP2.6) to 0.3 (2090 RCP8.5).

| ( [[#CSIRO%20and%20BOM--2015|CSIRO and BOM, 2015]] ; [[#Hurd--2018|Hurd et al., 2018]] ; [[#Law--2018b|Law et al., 2018b]] )

|}

'''Table 11.4 |''' Observed impacts on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and species in the region where there is documented evidence that these are directly (e.g., a species thermal tolerances are exceeded) or indirectly (e.g., through changed fire regimes) the result of climate change pressures.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Ecosystem

! Climate-related pressure

! Impact

! Source

|-
| colspan="4"| Australia

|-
| Forest and woodlands of southern and southwestern Australia

| 30-year declining rainfall

| Drought-induced canopy dieback across a range of forest and woodland types (e.g., northern jarrah)

| ( [[#Matusick--2018|Matusick et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
|
| Multiple wildfires in short succession resulting from increased fire risk conditions, including declining winter rainfall and increasing hot days

| Local extirpations and replacement of dominant canopy tree species and replacement by woody shrubs due to seeders having insufficient time to reach reproductive age (alpine ash) or vegetative regeneration capacity is exhausted (snow gum woodlands)

| ( [[#Slatyer--2010|Slatyer, 2010]] ; [[#Bowman--2014|Bowman et al., 2014]] ; [[#Fairman--2016|Fairman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Harris--2018|Harris et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zylstra--2018|Zylstra, 2018]] )

|-
|
| Background warming and drying created soil and vegetation conditions that are conducive to fires being ignited by lightning storms in regions that have rarely experienced fire over the last few millennia

| Death of fire-sensitive trees species from unprecedented fire events (Palaeo-endemic pencil pine forest growing in sphagnum, Tasmania, killed by lightning-ignited fires in 2016)

| ( [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Australian Alps Bioregion and Tasmanian alpine zones

| Severe winter drought; warming and climate-induced biotic interactions

| Shifts in dominant vegetation with a decline in grasses and other graminoids and an increase in forb and shrub cover in Bogong High Plains, Victoria, Australia

| ( [[#Bhend--2012|Bhend et al., 2012]] ; [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
|
| Snow loss, fire, drought and temperature changes

| Changing interactions within and among three key alpine taxa related to food supply and vegetation habitat resources: The mountain pygmy-possum ( ''Burramys parvus'' ), the mountain plum pine ( ''Podocarpus lawrencei'' ) and the bogong moth ( ''Agrostis infusia'' )

| ( [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
|
| Retreat of snow line

| Increased species diversity in alpine zone

| ( [[#Slatyer--2010|Slatyer, 2010]] )

|-
|
| Reduced snow cover

| Loss of snow-related habitat for alpine zone endemic and obligate species

| ( [[#ACE%20CRC--2010|ACE CRC, 2010]] ; [[#Pepler--2015a|Pepler et al., 2015a]] ; [[#Thompson--2016|Thompson, 2016]] ; [[#Mitchell--2019|Mitchell et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Wet Tropics World Heritage Area

| Warming and increasing length of dry season

| Some vertebrate species have already declined in both distribution area and population size, both earlier and more severely than originally predicted

| ( [[#Moran--2014|Moran et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Sub-Antarctic Macquarie island

| Reduced summer water availability for 17 consecutive summers, and increases in mean wind speed, sunshine hours and evapotranspiration over four decades

| Dieback in critically endangered habitat-forming cushion plant ''Azorella macquariensis'' in the fellfield and herb field communities

| ( [[#Bergstrom--2015|Bergstrom et al., 2015]] ; [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Mass mortality of wildlife species (flying foxes, freshwater fish)

| Extreme heat events; rising water temperatures, temperature fluctuations, altered rainfall regimes including droughts and reduced in-flows

| Flying foxes—thermal tolerances of species exceeded; fish—amplified extreme temperature fluctuations, increasing annual water basin temperatures, extreme droughts and reduced runoff after rainfall

| ( [[#AAS--2019|AAS, 2019]] ; [[#Ratnayake--2019|Ratnayake et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vertessy--2019|Vertessy et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Bramble Cay melomys (mammal)

''Melomys rubicola''

| SLR and storm surges in Torres Strait

| Loss of habitat and global extinction

| ( [[#Lunney--2014|Lunney et al., 2014]] ; [[#Gynther--2016|Gynther et al., 2016]] ; [[#Waller--2017|Waller et al., 2017]] ; [[#CSIRO--2018|CSIRO, 2018]] )

|-
| Koala, ''Phascolarctos cinereus''

| Increasing drought and rising temperatures, compounding impacts of habitat loss, fire and increasing human population

| Population declines and enhanced risk of local extinctions

| ( [[#Lunney--2014|Lunney et al., 2014]] )

|-
| Tawny dragon lizard, ''Ctenophorus decresii''

| Desiccation stress driven by higher body temperatures and declining rainfall

| Population decline and potential local extinction in Flinders Ranges, south Australia

| ( [[#Walker--2015|Walker et al., 2015]] )

|-
| Birds

| Changing thermal regimes including increasing thermal stress and changes in plant productivity are identified as being causal

| Changes in body size, mass and condition and other traits linked to heat exchange

| ( [[#Gardner--2014a|Gardner et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Gardner--2014b|Gardner et al., 2014b]] ; [[#Campbell-Tennant--2015|Campbell-Tennant et al., 2015]] ; [[#Gardner--2018|Gardner et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hoffmann--2019|Hoffmann et al., 2019]] )

|-
| colspan="4"| New Zealand

|-
| Forest birds

| Warming

| Increasing invasive predation pressure on endemic forest birds surviving in cool forest refugia, particularly larger-bodied bird species that nest in tree cavities and are poor dispersers

| ( [[#Walker--2019|Walker et al., 2019]] )

|-
| Coastal ecosystems

| More severe storms and rising sea levels

| Erosion of coastal habitats, including dunes and cliffs, is reducing habitat

| ( [[#Rouse--2017|Rouse et al., 2017]] )

|-
| Beech forest ecosystems

| Increasing mean temperatures and indirectly through effects of events like ENSO

| Increased beech mast seeding events that stimulate population irruptions for invasive rodents and mustelids, which then prey on native species

| ( [[#Schauber--2002|Schauber et al., 2002]] ; [[#Tompkins--2013|Tompkins et al., 2013]] )

|}

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