Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.2.1 Hazards ====

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Significant increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and significant decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes ( [[#Dereczynski--2020|Dereczynski et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ) were ''likely'' [[#footnote-000|2]] observed (Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 Table 11.13) ( [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ).

Insufficient data coverage and trends in available data are generally not significant for heavy precipitation ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Dereczynski--2020|Dereczynski et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sun--2021|Sun et al., 2021]] ) (Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 Table 11.14) ( [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ).

ENSO is the dominant phenomenon affecting weather conditions in all of CSA and along the Pacific Coast of NWS, causing heavy rains, storms, floods, landslides, heat and cold waves and extreme SLR ( [[#Ashok--2007|Ashok et al., 2007]] ; [[#Reguero--2015|Reguero et al., 2015]] ; [[#Wang--2017b|Wang et al., 2017b]] ; [[#Muis--2018|Muis et al., 2018]] ; [[#Rodríguez-Morata--2018|Rodríguez-Morata et al., 2018]] ; [[#Rodríguez-Morata--2019|Rodríguez-Morata et al., 2019]] ; [[#Cai--2020|Cai et al., 2020]] ). There is ''medium confidence'' that extreme ENSO will increase long after 1.5°C warming stabilisation according to CMIP5 ( [[#Cai--2015|Cai et al., 2015]] , 2018; [[#Wang--2017b|Wang et al., 2017b]] ). It is ''very likely'' that ENSO rainfall variability, used for defining extreme El Niño and La Niña, will increase significantly, regardless of amplitude changes in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability, by the second half of the 21st century in scenarios SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 (WGI AR6 Chapter 4) (Lee et al., 2021).

Warming and drier conditions are projected through the reduction of total annual precipitation, extreme precipitation and consecutive wet days and an increase in consecutive dry days ( [[#Chou--2014|Chou et al., 2014]] ). Heatwaves will increase in frequency and severity in places close to the equator like Colombia ( [[#Guo--2018|Guo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feron--2019|Feron et al., 2019]] ), with a decrease but strong wetting in coastal areas, pluvial and river flood and mean wind increase ( [[#Mora--2014|Mora et al., 2014]] ). Models project a ''very likely'' 2°C GWL increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes. Nevertheless, models project inconsistent changes in the region for extreme precipitation ( ''low confidence'' ) (Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 Table 12.14) ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). The main climate impact drivers in the region, like extreme heat, mean precipitation and coastal and oceanic drivers, will increase and snow, ice and permafrost will decrease with ''high confidence'' (WGI AR6 Table 12.6) ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ).

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