Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

=== 9.12.2 Projected Risks ===

<div id="h2-48-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Sea level rise (SLR) and its associated hazards will present increasing climate risk to African heritage in the coming decades (Figure 9.38; [[#Marzeion--2014|Marzeion and Levermann, 2014]] ; [[#Reimann--2018|Reimann et al., 2018]] ; [[#Brito--2020|Brito and Naia, 2020]] ). Although no continental assessment has quantified climate risk to African heritage and little is known of near-term exposure to hazards such as SLR and erosion, for a handful of coastal heritage sites included in global or Mediterranean studies, 10 cultural sites are identified to be physically exposed to SLR by 2100 at high emissions scenarios (RCP8.5) ( [[#Marzeion--2014|Marzeion and Levermann, 2014]] ; [[#Reimann--2018|Reimann et al., 2018]] ), of which, seven World Heritage Sites in the Mediterranean are also projected to face medium or high risk of erosion (Figure 9.38; [[#Reimann--2018|Reimann et al., 2018]] ). Further, [[#Brito--2020|Brito and Naia (2020)]] identify natural heritage sites across 27 African countries that will be affected by SLR by 2100 (RCP8.5), of which 15 sites covering eight countries demonstrated a high need for proactive management actions because of high levels of biodiversity, international conservation relevance and exposure to SLR (Figure 9.38). These nascent studies highlight the potential severity of risk and loss and damage from climate change to African heritage, as well as gaps in knowledge of climate risk to African cultural and natural, particularly concerning bio-cultural heritage.

<div id="_idContainer118" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:29fc4ccffcc6249479acf5f9493f62bf IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_9_038.png]]

'''Figure 9.38 |''' '''Risk to Africa’s cultural and natural coastal heritage sites from see level rise (SLR) and erosion by 2100.'''

'''(a)''' World Heritage Sites projected to be exposed to flooding from SLR under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) by 2100 ( [[#Marzeion--2014|Marzeion and Levermann, 2014]] ; [[#Reimann--2018|Reimann et al., 2018]] ). For north Africa, multiple sites are already identified to be at medium or high risk from erosion under both current and future SLR conditions ( [[#Reimann--2018|Reimann et al., 2018]] ). At the time of assessment erosion risk had not been assessed for other African regions

'''(b)''' The 15 African natural sites (coastal protected areas) projected to be most exposed to negative impacts from SLR and thus as priority sites for adaptation ( [[#Brito--2020|Brito and Naia, 2020]] ).

Although climate change is a significant risk to heritage sites ( [[#Brito--2020|Brito and Naia, 2020]] ), there is little research on how heritage management is adapting to climate change, and particularly, whether the capacity of current heritage management systems can prepare for and deal with consequences of climate change ( [[#Phillips--2015|Phillips, 2015]] ; see also Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3).

Worsening climate impacts are cumulative and often exacerbate the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites to other existing risks, including conflict, terrorism, poverty, invasive species, competition for natural resources and pollution ( [[#Markham--2016|Markham et al., 2016]] ). These issues may affect a broad range of tourism segments, including beach vacation sites, safari tourism, cultural tourism and visits to historic cities ( [[#UNWTO--2008|UNWTO, 2008]] ). Climate change impacts have the potential to increase tourist safety concerns, especially at sites where increased intensity of extreme weather events or vulnerability to floods and landslides are projected ( [[#Markham--2016|Markham et al., 2016]] ) (see also Cross-Chapter Box EXTREMES in Chapter 2). There may also be circumstances where interventions required to preserve and protect the resource alter its cultural significance ( [[#van%20Wyk--2017|van Wyk, 2017]] ).

<div id="9.12.3" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="adaptation-1"></span>