Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

== Frequently Asked Questions ==

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<span id="faq-9.1-which-climate-hazards-impact-african-livelihoods-economies-health-and-well-being-the-most"></span>
=== FAQ 9.1 | Which climate hazards impact African livelihoods, economies, health and well-being the most? ===

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''Climate extremes, particularly extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall events, impact the livelihoods, health, and well-being of millions of Africans. They will also continue to impact African economies, limiting adaptation capacity. Interventions based on resilient infrastructure and technologies can achieve numerous developmental and adaptation co-benefits.''

Multi-year droughts have become more frequent in west Africa, and the 2015–2017 Cape Town drought was three times more likely due to human-caused climate change. Above 2°C global warming, drought frequency is projected to increase, and duration will double from approximately 2 to 4 months over north Africa, the western Sahel and southern Africa. Estimates of increased exposure to water stress are higher than those for decreases. By 2050, climate change could expose an additional 951 million people in sub-Saharan Africa to water stress while also reducing exposure to water stress by 459 million people. Compared to population in 2000, human displacement due to river flooding in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to triple for a scenario of low population growth and 1.6°C global warming. Changing rainfall distributions together with warming temperatures will alter the distributions of disease vectors like mosquitoes and midges. Malaria vector hotspots and prevalence are projected to increase in east and southern Africa and the Sahel under even moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by the 2030s, exposing an additional 50.6–62.1 million people to malaria risk.

Increases in the number of hot days and nights, as well as in heatwave intensity and duration, have had negative impacts on agriculture, human health, water availability, energy demand and livelihoods. By some estimates, African countries’ Gross Domestic Product per capita is on average 13.6% lower since 1991 than if human-caused global warming had not occurred. In the future, high temperatures combined with high humidity exceed the threshold for human and livestock tolerance over larger parts of Africa and with greater frequency. Increased average temperatures and lower rainfall will further reduce economic output and growth in Africa, with larger negative impacts than on other regions of the world.

Resilient infrastructure and technologies are required to cope with the increasing climate variability and change (Figure FAQ9.1.1). These include improving housing to limit heat and exposure, along with improving water and sanitation infrastructure. Such interventions to ensure that the most vulnerable are properly protected from climate change have many co-benefits, including for pandemic recovery and prevention.

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[[File:89a4bea913b7447db3f672dce9b633a6 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_9_FAQ_9_1_1.png]]

'''Figure FAQ9.1.1 |''' ''' A schematic illustration of the interconnectedness of different sectors and impacts that spillover to affect the health and well-being of African people.'''

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<span id="faq-9.2-what-are-the-limits-and-benefits-of-climate-change-adaptation-in-africa"></span>
=== FAQ 9.2 | What are the limits and benefits of climate change adaptation in Africa? ===

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''The capacity for African ecosystems to adapt to changing environmental conditions is limited by a range of factors, from heat tolerance to land availability. Adaptation across human settlements and food systems are further constrained by insufficient planning and affordability. Integrated development planning and increasing finance flows can improve African climate change adaptation.''

With increasing warming, there is a lower likelihood species can migrate rapidly enough to track shifting climates, increasing extinction risk across more of Africa. At 2°C global warming more than 10% of African species are at risk of extinction. Species ability to disperse between areas to track shifting climates is limited by fencing, transport infrastructure, and the transformation of landscapes to agriculture and urban areas. Many species will lose large portions of their suitable habitats due to increases in temperature by 2100. Coupled with projected losses of Africa’s protected areas, higher temperatures will also reduce carbon sinks and other ecosystem services. Many nature-based adaptation measures (e.g., for coral reefs, mangroves, marshes) are less effective or no longer effective above 1.5°C of global warming. Human-based adaptation strategies for ecosystems reach their limits as availability and affordability of land decreases, resulting in migration, displacement and relocation.

The limits to adaptation for human settlements arise largely from developmental challenges associated with Africa’s rapid urbanisation, poor development planning, and increasing numbers of urban poor residing in informal settlements. Further limits arise from insufficient consideration of climate change in adaptation planning and infrastructure investment and insufficient financial resources. There are also limits to adaptation for food production strategies. Increasing climate extreme events—droughts and floods—impose specific adaptation responses which poorer households cannot afford. For instance, the use of early maturing or drought-tolerant crop varieties may increase resilience, but adoption by smallholder farmers is hindered by the unavailability or unaffordability of seed.

Adaptation in Africa can reduce risks at current levels of global warming. However, there is very limited evidence for the effectiveness of current adaptation at increased global warming levels. Ambitious, near-term mitigation would yield the largest single contribution to successful adaptation in Africa.

Current adaptation finance flows are billions of USD less than the needs of African countries and around half of finance commitments to Africa reported by developed countries remain undisbursed. Increasing adaptation finance flows by billions of dollars (including public and private sources), removing barriers to accessing finance and providing targeted country support can improve climate change adaptation across Africa.

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=== FAQ 9.3 | How can African countries secure enough food in changing climate conditions for their growing populations? ===

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''Climate change is already impacting African food systems and will worsen food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa in the future. An integrated approach to adaptation planning can serve as a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing African food security challenges.''

Maize and wheat yields have decreased an average of 5.8% and 2.3%, respectively, in sub-Saharan Africa due to climate change. Among the 135 million acutely food-insecure people in crisis globally, more than half (73 million) are in Africa. This is partly due to the growing severity of drought with increasing temperatures also a severe risk factor. Adding to these challenges, Africa has the fastest-growing population in the world that is projected to grow to around 40% of the world’s population by 2100.

Sustainable agricultural development combined with enabling institutional conditions, such as supportive governance systems and policy, can provide farmers with greater yield stability in uncertain climate conditions. It is also widely acknowledged that an integrated approach for adaptation planning that combines (a) climate information services, (b) capacity building, (c) Indigenous and local knowledge systems and (d) strategic financial investment can serve as a flexible and cost-effective solution for addressing African food security challenges.

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<span id="faq-9.4-how-can-african-local-knowledge-serve-climate-adaptation-planning-more-effectively"></span>
=== FAQ 9.4 | How can African local knowledge serve climate adaptation planning more effectively? ===

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''A strong relationship between scientific knowledge and local knowledge is desirable, especially in developing contexts where technology for prediction and modelling is least accessible.''

In many African settings, farmers use the local knowledge gained over time—through experience and passed on orally from generation to generation—to cope with climate challenges. Indigenous Knowledge systems of weather and climate patterns include early warning systems, agroecological farming systems and observation of natural or non-natural climate indicators. For instance, biodiversity and crop diversification are used as a buffer against environmental challenges: if one crop fails, another could survive. Local knowledge of seasons, storms and wind patterns is used to guide and plan farming and other activities.

Collaborative partnerships between research, agricultural extension services and local communities would create new avenues for the co-production of knowledge in climate change adaptation to better inform adaptation policies and practices across Africa.

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