Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

===== 10.4.2.1.2 Species ranges and biodiversity =====

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Since AR5, new evidence has appeared of alterations in terrestrial and freshwater species, populations and communities in line with climate change across Asia ( ''medium to high confidence'' ) ( [[#Arias--2021|Arias et al., 2021]] ). In North Asia, temperature increase and droughts have promoted spread northward of the current silk moth outbreak (has affected nearly 2.5 × 10 6 ha) in Central Siberia dark taiga since 2014 ( [[#Kharuk--2017b|Kharuk et al., 2017b]] ; [[#Kharuk--2020|Kharuk et al., 2020]] ). The climatic range of the Colorado potato beetle ( ''Leptinotarsa decemlineata'' ) in 1991–2010 expanded east- and northward in Siberia and the Russian Far East compared with the 1951–1970 range ( [[#Popova--2014|Popova, 2014]] ). The climatic range of ''Ixodes ricinus'' , a vector of dangerous human diseases, expanded into Central Asia and south of the Russian Far East ( [[#Semenov--2020|Semenov et al., 2020]] ). A butterfly ( ''Melanargia russiae'' ) in the Middle Urals moved northward ( [[#Zakharova--2017|Zakharova et al., 2017]] ). Thrush birds in West Siberia penetrated northward up to the limits of the sparse woodlands ( [[#Ryzhanovskiy--2019a|Ryzhanovskiy, 2019a]] ). The increase in the length of frost-free period observed in the Ilmen Nature Reserve, Middle Urals, during recent decades is supposed to be interlinked with changes in the amplitude and frequency of population waves of bank vole ( [[#Kiseleva--2020|Kiseleva, 2020]] ). In Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve, Russian Altai, in the period 2005–2015, alpine plant species have shifted towards higher altitudes by 5.3 m on average ( [[#Artemov--2018|Artemov, 2018]] ). Wild reindeer herds in Taimyr, north of Central Siberia, migrated northward to the Arctic Sea coast in hot summers between 1999–2003 and 2009–2016 because of an earlier massive emergence of bloodsucking insects ( [[#Pospelova--2017|Pospelova et al., 2017]] ). In Yakutia, the ranges of red deer, elk and the northern pika are expanding, and the winter survival of the mouse-like rodents has increased ( [[#Safronov--2016|Safronov, 2016]] ). In the Chukchi Sea, in recent decades the average duration polar bears spent onshore increased by 30 d ( [[#Rode--2015b|Rode et al., 2015b]] ) in line with global warming and the rapid decline of their sea ice habitat ( [[#Derocher--2013|Derocher et al., 2013]] ; [[#Jenssen--2015|Jenssen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rode--2015a|Rode et al., 2015a]] ).

In Central Kazakh Steppe, in line with warming, in 2018 there were more ‘southern’ sub-arid species in the communities and fewer relatively ‘northern’ boreal and polyzonal species of ground beetles (Carabidae) and black beetles (Tenebrionidae) than in 1976–1978 ( [[#Mordkovich--2020|Mordkovich et al., 2020]] ). The present distribution of Asian black birch ( ''Betula davurica'' Pall.) in East and North Asia was formed as a result of northward expansion during post-Last Glacial Maximum global warming ( [[#Shitara--2018|Shitara et al., 2018]] ). Both upper and lower limits of avifauna of two New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, have been shifting upslope since 1965 ( [[#Freeman--2014|Freeman and Freeman, 2014]] ). In Republic of Korea, for the past 60 years, the northern boundary line of 63 southern butterfly species has moved further north ( [[#Bae--2020|Bae et al., 2020]] ). The change in the butterflies’ occurrence in this period has been influenced mostly by large-scale reforestation, not by climate change ( [[#Kwon--2021|Kwon et al., 2021]] ). Warming-driven geographic range shift was recorded in 87% of 124 endemic plant species studied in the Sikkim Himalaya in the periods 1849–1850 and 2007–2010 ( [[#Telwala--2013|Telwala et al., 2013]] ). In Darjeeling, India, significant change in lichen community structure was shown in response to climate change and anthropogenic pollution ( [[#Bajpai--2016|Bajpai et al., 2016]] ).

The observed loss of biodiversity and habitat of animals and plants has been linked to climate change in some parts of Asia ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate change, together with human disturbances, have caused local extinction of some large and medium-sized mammals during the past three centuries in China ( [[#Wan--2019|Wan et al., 2019]] ). Climate change has shown significant impacts on subalpine plant species at low altitudes and latitudes in Republic of Korea and may impose a big threat to these plant species ( [[#Adhikari--2018|Adhikari et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kim--2019c|Kim et al., 2019c]] ). Climate change has caused habitat loss of amphibians ( [[#Surasinghe--2011|Surasinghe, 2011]] ) and extinction of some endemic species in Sri Lanka ( [[#Kottawa-Arachchi--2017|Kottawa-Arachchi and Wijeratne, 2017]] ).

There is evidence that climate change can alter species interaction or spatial distribution of invasive species in Asia ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate warming has enhanced the competitive ability of the native species ( ''Sparganium angustifolium'' ) against the invasive species ( ''Egeria densa'' ) in China under a mesocosm experiment in a greenhouse ( [[#Yu--2018e|Yu et al., 2018e]] ). It has also increased the non-target effect on a native plant ( ''Alternanthera sessilis'' ) by a biological control beetle ( ''Agasicles hygrophila'' ) in China due to range expansion of the beetle and change of phenology of the plant ( [[#Lu--2015|Lu et al., 2015]] ). Climate warming has expanded the distribution of invasive bamboos ( ''Phyllostachys edulis'' and ''P. bambusoides'' ) northward and upslope in Japan ( [[#Takano--2017|Takano et al., 2017]] ), while soil dry-down rates have been a key driver of invasion of dwarf bamboo ( ''Sasa kurilensis'' ) in central Hokkaido above and below the treeline ( [[#Winkler--2016|Winkler et al., 2016]] ).

Climate change along with land-use and land-cover change influences soil organic carbon content, microbial biomass C, microbial respiration and the soil carbon cycle in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran ( [[#Soleimani--2019|Soleimani et al., 2019]] ; [[#Francaviglia--2020|Francaviglia et al., 2020]] ). In the fir forest ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau, winter warming affects the ammonia-oxidising bacteria and archaea, thus altering the nitrogen cycle ( [[#Huang--2016|Huang et al., 2016]] ). Ecosystem carbon pool in the spruce forests of the northeast Tibetan Plateau was reduced by about 25% by deforestation due to recent decades of climate warming as well as wood pasture and logging ( [[#Wagner--2015|Wagner et al., 2015]] ). In Mongolia’s forest steppe, recent decades of drought- and land-use-induced deforestation has reduced the ecosystem carbon stock density by about 40% ( [[#Dulamsuren--2016|Dulamsuren et al., 2016]] ). In Inner Mongolia, the predicted decreases in precipitation and warming for most of the temperate grassland region could lead to a pH change, which would contribute to a soil C-N-P decoupling that could reduce plant growth and production in arid ecosystems ( [[#Jiao--2016|Jiao et al., 2016]] ).

In Central Asia, in the Vakhsh, Kafirnigan and Kyzylsu river basins, Tajikistan, it has been shown that temperature stimulates algal species diversity, while precipitation and altitude suppress it ( [[#Barinova--2015|Barinova et al., 2015]] ). In line with the warming of Lake Baikal, Russia, since the 1990s in the lake’s south basin, there have been shifts in diatom community composition towards higher abundances of the cosmopolitan ''Synedra acus'' and a decline in endemic species, mainly ''Cyclotella minuta'' and ''Stephanodiscus meyerii'' , and to a lesser extent ''Aulacoseira baicalensis'' and ''A. skvortzowii'' ( [[#Roberts--2018|Roberts et al., 2018]] ). In Gonghai Lake, North China, diatom biodiversity has increased remarkably from 1966, but began to decline after 1990 presumably in response to rapid climate warming ( [[#Yan--2018|Yan et al., 2018]] ).

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