Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-4 (section)

== CCP4.4 Adaptation and Sustainable Development in the Mediterranean Basin ==

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<span id="ccp4.4.1-ocean-and-coastal-systems"></span>
=== CCP4.4.1 Ocean and Coastal Systems ===

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Adaptation options for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries include improving and enlarging the regional network of marine protected areas, transnational management of marine food resources, sustainable fishery practices, developing collaborative monitoring, research and managing knowledge platforms for fisheries ( [[#Bjørkan--2020|Bjørkan et al., 2020]] ; [[#Raicevich--2020|Raicevich et al., 2020]] ) and sustainable aquaculture ( [[#Ehlers--2016|Ehlers, 2016]] ; Lacroix, 2016).

Adaptation options to sea level rise in the Mediterranean include nature-based solutions, such as beach and shore nourishment, dune restoration, or ecosystem-based adaptation and restoration in low-lying coasts, lagoons, estuaries and deltas ( [[#Aragonés--2015|Aragonés et al., 2015]] ; [[#Aspe--2016|Aspe et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loizidou--2016|Loizidou et al., 2016]] ; [[#Danovaro--2018|Danovaro et al., 2018]] ). Engineering plays a major role for coastal adaptation too, through breakwaters, seawalls, dykes, surge barriers and submerged breakwaters ( [[#Sancho-García--2013|Sancho-García et al., 2013]] ; [[#Becchi--2014|Becchi et al., 2014]] ; [[#Balouin--2015|Balouin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Masria--2015|Masria et al., 2015]] ; [[#Tsoukala--2015|Tsoukala et al., 2015]] ; [[#Bouvier--2017|Bouvier et al., 2017]] ). Many engineering-based coastal adaptation imply large residual impacts on coastal ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Micheli--2013|Micheli et al., 2013]] ; [[#Masria--2015|Masria et al., 2015]] ; [[#Cooper--2016|Cooper et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bonnici--2018|Bonnici et al., 2018]] ). A sea surface height control dam at the Strait of Gibraltar has been proposed for mitigating sea level rise in the Mediterranean, but this would ''likely'' involve major impacts on ecosystems and fisheries ( [[#Gower--2015|Gower, 2015]] ).

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=== CCP4.4.2 Inland Ecosystems ===

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In forests, adaptation to impacts of warming and drought may involve multiple forest management strategies, such as thinning ( [[#Fernández-de-Uña--2015|Fernández-de-Uña et al., 2015]] ; [[#Giuggiola--2016|Giuggiola et al., 2016]] ; [[#Aldea--2017|Aldea et al., 2017]] ; [[#del%20Río--2017|del Río et al., 2017]] ; [[#Gleason--2017|Gleason et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lechuga--2017|Lechuga et al., 2017]] ; [[#Vilà-Cabrera--2018|Vilà-Cabrera et al., 2018]] ), increasing the share of drought-tolerant species and provenances ( [[#Hlásny--2014|Hlásny et al., 2014]] ; [[#Calvo--2016|Calvo et al., 2016]] ), or promoting mixed-species stands ( [[#Ruiz-Benito--2014|Ruiz-Benito et al., 2014]] ; [[#Guyot--2016|Guyot et al., 2016]] ; [[#Sánchez-Pinillos--2016|Sánchez-Pinillos et al., 2016]] ; [[#del%20Río--2017|del Río et al., 2017]] ; [[#Jactel--2017|Jactel et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ratcliffe--2017|Ratcliffe et al., 2017]] ).

Adaptation options to increased fire risks include improved planning of residential development such as to avoid inevitable wildfire ( [[#Schoennagel--2017|Schoennagel et al., 2017]] ; [[#Samara--2018|Samara et al., 2018]] ), improved fire suppression capacities and strategies ( [[#Brotons--2013|Brotons et al., 2013]] ; [[#Regos--2014|Regos et al., 2014]] ; [[#Khabarov--2016|Khabarov et al., 2016]] ; [[#Turco--2018a|Turco et al., 2018a]] ; 2018b), managing and planning landscape matrix schemes to reduce fire risk ( [[#de%20Rigo--2017|de Rigo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Erdős--2018|Erdős et al., 2018]] ), thinning, slash management and prescribed burning techniques ( [[#Fernandes--2016|Fernandes et al., 2016]] ; 2018; [[#Khabarov--2016|Khabarov et al., 2016]] ; [[#Regos--2016|Regos et al., 2016]] ; [[#Piqué--2018|Piqué and Domènech, 2018]] ; [[#Samara--2018|Samara et al., 2018]] ; [[#Vilà-Cabrera--2018|Vilà-Cabrera et al., 2018]] ; [[#Duane--2019|Duane et al., 2019]] ), as well as understory grazing ( [[#Varga--2016|Varga et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vilà-Cabrera--2018|Vilà-Cabrera et al., 2018]] ).

Adaptation of forest management generally requires improved monitoring systems of forest condition and natural disturbances ( [[#Hlásny--2014|Hlásny et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hengeveld--2015|Hengeveld et al., 2015]] ; [[#Maes--2015|Maes et al., 2015]] ), supported by participatory forest management and planning processes and local self-governance mechanisms ( [[#Bouriaud--2013|Bouriaud et al., 2013]] ; 2015).

For freshwater ecosystems, adaptation options include hydrological and land use planning at basin scale, which can be complemented with local conservation and restoration efforts, and the preservation of natural flow variability of rivers and streams ( [[#Aspe--2016|Aspe et al., 2016]] ; [[#Loizidou--2016|Loizidou et al., 2016]] ; [[#Cid--2017|Cid et al., 2017]] ; [[#Menció--2018|Menció and Boix, 2018]] ; [[#Morant--2020|Morant et al., 2020]] ).

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<span id="ccp4.4.3-water-management-agriculture-and-food-security"></span>
=== CCP4.4.3 Water Management, Agriculture and Food Security ===

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Adaptation options to address water shortages at the national scale include transboundary resource management ( [[#Escriva-Bou--2017|Escriva-Bou et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pulido-Velazquez--2018|Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2018]] ), promoting fair, equitable and sustainable water trade in international markets ( [[#Johansson--2016|Johansson et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lee--2019|Lee et al., 2019]] ), regional, national and basin-scale management plans for water resources ( [[#Wilhite--2014|Wilhite et al., 2014]] ; [[#Paneque--2015|Paneque, 2015]] ; [[#Urquijo--2015|Urquijo et al., 2015]] ; [[#Estrela--2016|Estrela and Sancho, 2016]] ; [[#Vargas--2019|Vargas and Paneque, 2019]] ), improved groundwater monitoring and strategic management ( [[#Pulido-Velazquez--2020|Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2020]] ), and economic instruments to manage water demand (prices policies, markets and subsidies).

Technical options include the reduction of losses in water distribution networks for drinking water and irrigation ( [[#Burak--2016|Burak and Margat, 2016]] ; [[#Fader--2016|Fader et al., 2016]] ), desalinisation, often combined with generation of electricity ( [[#Papanicolas--2016|Papanicolas et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bonanos--2017|Bonanos et al., 2017]] ; [[#Jones--2019|Jones et al., 2019]] ), artificial recharge of groundwater and subterranean dams ( [[#Djuma--2017|Djuma et al., 2017]] ; [[#De%20Giglio--2018|De Giglio et al., 2018]] ; [[#Missimer--2018|Missimer and Maliva, 2018]] ; [[#Baena-Ruiz--2020|Baena-Ruiz et al., 2020]] ), and waste water reuse ( [[#Kalavrouziotis--2015|Kalavrouziotis et al., 2015]] ; [[#Barba-Suñol--2018|Barba-Suñol et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cherfouh--2018|Cherfouh et al., 2018]] ). On the demand side, options include changing diet and water consumption patterns ( [[#Blas--2016|Blas et al., 2016]] ; [[#Gul--2017|Gul et al., 2017]] ; [[#Blas--2018|Blas et al., 2018]] ), and enhancing water use efficiency in the tourism and food sectors ( [[#Hadjikakou--2013|Hadjikakou et al., 2013]] ; [[#Moresi--2014|Moresi, 2014]] ).

In the agriculture sector, improved efficiency of irrigation practices can be achieved by changing surface water irrigation for other techniques and shifting to more sustainable practices ( [[#Mrabet--2012|Mrabet et al., 2012]] ; [[#Benlhabib--2014|Benlhabib et al., 2014]] ; [[#Boari--2015|Boari et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ćosić--2015|Ćosić et al., 2015]] ; [[#Guilherme--2015|Guilherme et al., 2015]] ; [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ; [[#Cantore--2016|Cantore et al., 2016]] ; [[#Triberti--2016|Triberti et al., 2016]] ; [[#AbdAllah--2018|AbdAllah et al., 2018]] ; [[#Billen--2018|Billen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Iglesias--2018|Iglesias et al., 2018]] ; [[#Malek--2018|Malek and Verburg, 2018]] ; [[#Vargas--2019|Vargas and Paneque, 2019]] ). Overall, the region could save 35% of water resources by improved irrigation techniques ( [[#Fader--2016|Fader et al., 2016]] ). However, maladaptive drip irrigation subsidies and developments can also result in the unsustainable use of groundwater resources and excessive agriculture intensification, indicating the need for careful strategic planning, regulation and monitoring of these options ( [[#Venot--2017|Venot et al., 2017]] ). In the livestock sector, adaptation options for heat wave-induced mortality of animals include the choice of more resistant genetic provenances ( [[#Rojas-Downing--2017|Rojas-Downing et al., 2017]] ).

Other adaptation options in the agricultural sector include agro-ecological techniques that increase the water retention capacity of soils (mulching, zero tillage, reduced tillage, etc.) ( [[#Aguilera--2013a|Aguilera et al., 2013a]] ; [[#Aguilera--2013b|Aguilera et al., 2013b]] ; [[#Almagro--2016|Almagro et al., 2016]] ; [[#Sanz-Cobena--2017|Sanz-Cobena et al., 2017]] ; [[#Tomaz--2017|Tomaz et al., 2017]] ; [[#Bhakta--2019|Bhakta et al., 2019]] ; [[#García-Tejero--2020|García-Tejero et al., 2020]] ) and promoting crop diversification, adapting the crop calendar and the use of new varieties adapted to evolving conditions. Many of these strategies for more sustainable production are also intended to address the food security risks and import dependence in the region. Other options are to manage nitrogen resources, food demand, change diets and reduce food waste ( [[#Billen--2018|Billen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Schils--2018|Schils et al., 2018]] ; [[#Billen--2019|Billen et al., 2019]] ; [[#Garnier--2019|Garnier et al., 2019]] ; [[#Aguilera--2020|Aguilera et al., 2020]] ; [[#Lassaletta--2021|Lassaletta et al., 2021]] ).

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=== CCP4.4.4 Human Health ===

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In the Mediterranean region, adapting to increasing heat wave impacts involves local urban health adaptation plans, as well as increasing the capacity of healthcare systems ( [[#Fernandez%20Milan--2015|Fernandez Milan and Creutzig, 2015]] ; [[#Larsen--2015|Larsen, 2015]] ; [[#Paz--2016|Paz et al., 2016]] ; [[#Liotta--2018|Liotta et al., 2018]] ; [[#Reckien--2018|Reckien et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tsiros--2018|Tsiros et al., 2018]] ). Local urban adaptation strategies need to be integrative and address housing and infrastructure, the increase and design of urban green areas, education and awareness-raising of the most vulnerable communities, the implementation of early warning systems for extreme events and the surveillance of climate change induced diseases, the strengthening of local emergency and healthcare services, and the general strengthening adaptive capacity of the community and of the local institutions.

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<span id="ccp4.4.5-limits-to-adaptation-equity-and-climate-justice"></span>
=== CCP4.4.5 Limits to Adaptation, Equity and Climate Justice ===

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There is ''low confidence'' that the Mediterranean region can adapt to rapid sea level rise for the case of rapid Antarctic ice-sheets collapse, even in regions with high capabilities to adapt, such as the northwest Mediterranean ( [[#Poumadère--2008|Poumadère et al., 2008]] ). Residual coastal risks are still largely unquantified. For moderate levels of sea level rise, it is ''unlikely'' that these changes alone will exceed the technical limits of coastal adaptation over the 21st century ( [[#Hinkel--2018|Hinkel et al., 2018]] ). Beyond 2100, continued sea level rise may require managed retreat in low-lying Mediterranean areas, particularly in delta areas, such as the Nile (Figure CCP4.6). There is little knowledge on the potential for adaptation at these timescales.

Regional adaptation initiatives occur in a highly asymmetric geographic context characterised by contrasting demographic, environmental and socioeconomic trends in the southern, eastern and northern parts of the Mediterranean Basin ( [[#Pausas--2012|Pausas and Fernández-Muñoz, 2012]] ). Adaptation plans in Mediterranean countries are also limited by a lack of effective regional governance schemes (with the partial exception of European countries subject to the European directives and strategies), hampering the effective implementation of regionally harmonised adaptation strategies, plans and quantitative targets ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ; [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al., 2019]] ). Adaptation to sea level rise is essentially limited by social barriers along urban coasts in the northwest Mediterranean at present ( [[#Hinkel--2018|Hinkel et al., 2018]] ), while the adaptation dilemma involving economic and financial barriers is greater in peri-urban, rural and natural areas, as well as in the southern and eastern Mediterranean. In addition, limited regional monitoring of risks and adaptation options hampers adaptation in domains and sectors ( [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al., 2018]] ).

In the Mediterranean region, vulnerability is strongly affected by equity: people most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are the elderly, especially women ( [[#Iñiguez--2016|Iñiguez et al., 2016]] ; [[#Achebak--2018|Achebak et al., 2018]] ) and children, who are often strongly affected by climate change ( [[#Watts--2019|Watts et al., 2019]] ). An increase of heat waves poses a significant health risk especially for young children living in urban areas ( [[#UNICEF--2014|UNICEF, 2014]] ; [[#Perera--2017|Perera, 2017]] ; [[#Royé--2017|Royé, 2017]] ) and for elderly women, in particular those affected by other conditions such as respiratory diseases ( [[#Sellers--2016|Sellers, 2016]] ; [[#Achebak--2018|Achebak et al., 2018]] ). Children and future generations in eastern Mediterranean countries are those most at risk of food insecurity, in both quantity and quality ( [[#Prosperi--2014|Prosperi et al., 2014]] ). In the region, many children are particularly vulnerable due to scarcity of drinking water and food, aggravated by droughts and flooding ( [[#Philipsborn--2018|Philipsborn and Chan, 2018]] ). The potential for adaptation to and preparation for vector-borne diseases and other health risks, expected to increase with climate change, differs among Mediterranean countries ( [[#Negev--2015|Negev et al., 2015]] ). Climate change in the Mediterranean region also impacts some groups disproportionately (e.g., poor farmers, urban migrants, seasonal workers) and livelihoods ( [[#Waha--2017|Waha et al., 2017]] ), favouring mobility and migration ( [[#Nori--2020|Nori and Farinella, 2020]] ).

To safeguard the rights of the most vulnerable people in the Mediterranean region, climate adaptation plans and measures must consider the cost of adaptation ( [[#Watts--2019|Watts et al., 2019]] ). In addition, some adaptation options can have side and residual effects, favouring some countries/groups over others. Climate-just adaptation options are those that promote fair solutions for all and take into account region-specific socioeconomic and geopolitical variabilities and vulnerabilities, such as the lack of inclusive and participatory approaches ( [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ) and pre-existing vulnerabilities, as in the case of Palestine ( [[#Jarrar--2015|Jarrar, 2015]] ) and Syria ( [[#Gleick--2014|Gleick, 2014]] ).

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<span id="ccp4.4.6-pathways-for-sustainable-development"></span>
=== CCP4.4.6 Pathways for Sustainable Development ===

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Climate-resilient sustainable development pathways are trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realise the goal of sustainable development through iterative, continually evolving socioecological processes (Chapters 1; 18; [[#Denton--2014|Denton et al., 2014]] ). Transformative adaptation can be promoted through social and political processes, identifying the enabling conditions and strategies that facilitate structural changes ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ; [[#Ramieri--2018|Ramieri et al., 2018]] ; [[#EC--2020|EC, 2020]] ; [[#UNEP/MAP%20and%20Plan%20Bleu--2020|UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu, 2020]] ). The main options include ongoing structural change in the renewable energy system in this region, the production of renewable biological resources, measures towards increased water irrigation efficiency, behavioural changes in multiple sectors and improved regional governance (Table CCP4.2; [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al., 2018]] ).

'''Table CCP4.2 |''' Transformative adaptation and mitigation options for climate-resilient sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Code'''

! '''Sector'''

! '''Transformative option'''

! '''References'''

|-
| T1

| Energy, transport and tourism

| National plans and regulations to decarbonise fuel sources and electricity grids on the supply side, for reducing energy demand and increasing efficiency and converting transport systems from fossil fuels to electricity.

| [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]] ; Bastianin et al. (2017); EEA (2018a; 2018b; 2019); [[#OME--2018|OME (2018)]] ; [[#CMI%20and%20EC--2019|CMI and EC (2019)]] ; [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al. (2019)]] ; [[#EC--2020|EC (2020)]] ; Simionescu et al. (2020)

|-
| T2

| Energy

| Deployment of large-scale Mediterranean transboundary renewable energy infrastructures and interconnections. Transboundary energy market integration schemes.

| [[#EIB%20and%20IRENA--2015|EIB and IRENA (2015)]] ; [[#Tagliapietra--2018|Tagliapietra (2018)]] ; [[#CMI%20and%20EC--2019|CMI and EC (2019)]] ; Zappa et al. (2019); [[#CMI%20and%20EC--2020|CMI and]] [[#EC--2020|EC (2020)]]

|-
| T3

| Energy

| Definition of ‘Important Projects of Common European Interest’ pooling financial resources and funding large-scale innovation projects across borders in the Mediterranean. Green hydrogen projects in Mediterranean North Africa (especially Morocco) have already been suggested as strategic actions.

| CMI and EC (2019; 2020)

|-
| T4

| Energy – finance

| EU Renewable Energy Financing Mechanisms such as calls for proposals for new renewable energy projects, including joint projects with third Mediterranean countries, joint support schemes, innovative technology projects or other projects that contribute to the enabling framework of the Renewable Directive 2018/2001. The mechanism can provide resources from payments by Member States, EU funds (European Green Deal Investment Plan, the Sustainable Finance Strategy, the Just Transition Fund, Connecting Europe Facility) or private sector contributions.

| CMI and EC (2019; 2020)

|-
| T5

| Water

| Improving efficiency of irrigation practices, including changing surface water irrigation for other techniques, use of remote sensing in intensive agriculture, optimisation of irrigation practices and other approaches. The Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing improved irrigation techniques.

| [[#Iglesias--2011|Iglesias et al. (2011)]] ; [[#Boari--2015|Boari et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Ćosić--2015|Ćosić et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Dhehibi--2015|Dhehibi et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Guilherme--2015|Guilherme et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote (2015)]] ; [[#Cantore--2016|Cantore et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Fader--2016|Fader et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Iglesias--2017|Iglesias et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Kang--2017|Kang et al. (2017)]] ; AbdAllah et al. (2018); Iglesias et al. (2018); [[#Malek--2018|Malek and Verburg (2018)]] ; [[#Vargas--2019|Vargas and Paneque (2019)]]

|-
| T6

| Water

| Improvement of water resource availability and quality. Desalinisation and co-generation of electricity and potable water in integrated Concentration Solar Power plants. Reduce climate impacts on nitrate and other pollutant concentrations through improved agriculture and fertilizer management.

| Abufayed and El-Ghuel (2001); [[#Elimelech--2011|Elimelech and Phillip (2011)]] ; Aguilera et al. (2015); [[#Papanicolas--2016|Papanicolas et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Bonanos--2017|Bonanos et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Jones--2019|Jones et al. (2019)]] ; [[#Lange--2019|Lange (2019)]]

|-
| T7

| Water

| Reduce/control water demand and use through efficiency management and/or modernisation in irrigation.

| Sanchis-Ibor et al. (2016); [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]]

|-
| T8

| Water

| Water demand management. Behavioural shifts in consumption and diet choice. Diet type influences the amount of water needed to produce and process food. Food waste implies the waste of the water used in the production cycle.

| Blas et al. (2016; 2018); Gul et al. (2017)

|-
| T9

| Water

| Adaptation by increasing water trade in international markets (commodity markets).

| Antonelli et al. (2012); [[#Hoekstra--2012|Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012)]] ; [[#Johansson--2016|Johansson et al. (2016)]] ; Lee et al. (2019)

|-
| T10

| Food and fisheries

| Changing diets, managing food demand and reducing food waste. Reductions in the demand for livestock products.

| [[#Bajželj--2014|Bajželj et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Havlík--2014|Havlík et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Tilman--2014|Tilman and Clark (2014)]] ; [[#Westhoek--2014|Westhoek et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Herrero--2016|Herrero et al. (2016)]] ; [[#van%20Sluisveld--2016|van Sluisveld et al. (2016)]]

|-
| T11

| Food and fisheries

| Shift to more sustainable fishery practices. Collaborative monitoring, research and managing knowledge platforms.

| [[#Bjørkan--2020|Bjørkan et al. (2020)]] ; [[#Raicevich--2020|Raicevich et al. (2020)]]

|-
| T12

| Human conflict, displacement, migration and security

| Implementation of more effective Mediterranean regional policies and institutional frameworks for human rights protection, management of transboundary human migration, resolution of political and armed conflicts, increased internal displacements and food security.

| [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]]

|-
| T13

| Finance

| Enhanced Mediterranean transnational governance and financial bilateral and multilateral capacity. Increased finance for regional cooperation and development (above current levels, USD 8300 million yr -1 ).

| [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]] ; [[#Midgley--2018|Midgley et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Fosse--2019|Fosse et al. (2019)]]

|-
| T14

| Coastal

| Nature-based solutions aiming at reducing future coastal risks by restoring a buffer zone in coastal areas (e.g., through managed realignment), leaving space for sediments and coastal ecosystems, thus reducing the hazard and exposure to coastal flooding and erosion.

| Pranzini et al. (2015)

|}

There also are risks for nonlinear climate change impacts in key socioeconomic and environmental processes, which could promote reactive changes and forced transformations (Table CCP4.3).

'''Table CCP4.3 |''' Nonlinear processes that could force reactive changes and social transformations for climate-resilient sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin. Nonlinearity implies the absence of a straight-line relationship between the independent variable and the response variable. In other words, changes in the output do not change in direct proportion to changes in the independent variable and the form of the relationship is often described by applying nonlinear mathematical models. Gradual changes induced by climate warming in thermal exposure or rainfall availability can induce nonlinear effects on social and ecological response variables.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Code'''

! '''Sector'''

! '''Processes'''

! '''References'''

|-
| P1

| Agriculture and migration

| Adverse nonlinear impacts of temperature on agricultural productivity can induce nonlinear effect on human migration. The temperature–migration relationship is nonlinear and resembles the nonlinear temperature–yield relationship. These relationships affect mostly agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.

| [[#Reuveny--2007|Reuveny (2007)]] ; [[#Schlenker--2009|Schlenker and Roberts (2009)]] ; [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al. (2016)]]

|-
| P3

| All societal sectors

| The increase in climatic impacts and catastrophic events is associated with nonlinear changes in economic and social impacts.

| [[#Burke--2014|Burke et al. (2014)]] ; Burke et al. (2015); [[#Carleton--2016|Carleton and Hsiang (2016)]] ; [[#Hsiang--2017|Hsiang et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Prahl--2018|Prahl et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Coronese--2019|Coronese et al. (2019)]]

|-
| P4

| All economic sectors

| Nonlinear temperature effects on labour conditions.

| [[#Burke--2014|Burke et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Graff%20Zivin--2014|Graff Zivin and Neidell (2014)]] ; Burke et al. (2015); [[#Somanathan--2018|Somanathan et al. (2018)]]

|-
| P5

| All economic sectors

| Nonlinear temperature effects on GDP. Higher temperature may reduce GDP in Mediterranean agricultural countries more than non-agricultural countries. Extreme heat over 30°C significantly reduces the GDP of agricultural countries but not the non-agricultural ones. GDP is a main determinant of international migration. The nonlinear relationship between GDP and temperature in agricultural countries provides indirect evidence for the agricultural linkage between temperature and migration.

| Dell et al. (2012); Burke et al. (2014; 2015); [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al. (2016)]]

|-
| P6

| All societal sectors

| Nonlinear effects of temperature on human conflict.

| [[#Baylis--2015|Baylis (2015)]] ; [[#Burke--2018|Burke et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Koubi--2018|Koubi (2018)]] ; [[#Baylis--2020|Baylis (2020)]]

|-
| P7

| Food, health and demography

| In low-income areas of the Mediterranean Basin and sub-Saharan Africa regions higher poverty rates, malnutrition and elevated infant mortality are coupled with higher fertility, implying a higher rate of population growth that in turn can generate more poverty. These demographic cycles can in turn interact with climatic impacts and conflict-induced displacement and migration processes.

| [[#Vörösmarty--2000|Vörösmarty et al. (2000)]] ; Barrios et al. (2006); [[#Reuveny--2007|Reuveny (2007)]] ; Hsiang et al. (2013); Ghimire et al. (2015); [[#Brzoska--2016|Brzoska and]] [[#Fröhlich--2016|Fröhlich (2016)]] ; [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Cattaneo--2016|Cattaneo and Peri (2016)]] ; [[#Grecequet--2017|Grecequet et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Waha--2017|Waha et al. (2017)]] ; [[#WFP--2017|WFP (2017)]] ; [[#Livi%20Bacci--2018|Livi Bacci (2018)]] ; [[#Raineri--2018|Raineri (2018)]] ; [[#Scott--2020|Scott et al. (2020)]]

|-
| P8

| Energy

| Nonlinear effects of increased temperatures on energy demand and supply. High temperatures provoke demand surges while straining supply and transmission.

| [[#Carleton--2016|Carleton and Hsiang (2016)]]

|-
| P9

| Industry

| Nonlinear effects of temperature on industrial production.

| [[#Hsiang--2015|Hsiang and Meng (2015)]]

|}

In the Mediterranean Basin, indicators for progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) show multiple directions of transformative change ( [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al., 2019]] ). In some sectors, such as energy, there are general positive trends in sustainability ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ), but there also are significant imbalances between northern and southern shores of the basin for most SDGs. Over the coming decades the Mediterranean Basin will ''likely'' experience sustained growth in renewable energy investments, accompanied by a shift in regional geographical patterns of energy demand ( [[#OME--2018|OME, 2018]] ). However, future developmental pathways, solution space and feasible system transformations could be constrained by multiple factors for several SDGs, such as social conflicts, lack of regional governance, limited action capacity and financial constraints (Figure CCP4.9; Table CCP4.3).

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[[File:3f03e0230d2319de95c586e927579c8b IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP4_009.png]]

'''Figure CCP4.9 |''' '''Differences in present-day SDG indicator values between northern (blue) and southern (gold) Mediterranean countries.''' Yellow-shaded areas indicate better indicator values for the SDG descriptor. Red-shaded areas indicate poor performance on SDG values. Details of calculations and indicators in Table SMCCP4.3.

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=== CCP4.4.7 Governance and Finance for Sustainable Development ===

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Several multilateral institutions are managing international environmental governance in the Mediterranean Sea, including, (a) the Barcelona Convention or Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean (established under the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP), (b) the General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM, a subsidiary of the FAO) and (iii) the Agreement on the Conservation of Cetaceans in the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea (ACCOBAMS, also under UNEP). These institutions act cooperatively pursuing synergies and greater effectiveness (Lacroix, 2016). The Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) under the Barcelona Convention System involves 21 Mediterranean countries and the EU and promotes the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development (MSSD), coordinated by the Mediterranean Commission on Sustainable Development (MCSD) ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ). MAP is primarily financed by national governments and the EU. Its financial capacity for regional environmental governance remains limited, with available annual funds in the range of 5–10 million Euro ( [[#Humphrey--2015|Humphrey and Lucas, 2015]] ).

Bilateral public climate finance in the Mediterranean area includes loans by multilateral development banks, bilateral official development aid and international climate fund projects ( [[#Midgley--2018|Midgley et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tagliapietra--2018|Tagliapietra, 2018]] ). Bilateral public and private financial resources invested in international climate finance in southern Mediterranean countries are two orders of magnitude greater than the existing multilateral regional governance programmes for the environment ( [[#EC--2018|EC, 2018]] ; [[#Midgley--2018|Midgley et al., 2018]] ; [[#Fosse--2019|Fosse et al., 2019]] ). The MSSD is a tool for enhancing the governance of environmental issues, proposing the biannual reporting by the national parties of a set of quantitative indicators, including the commitments and obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change climate agreement, and other climate change mitigation and adaptation policy actions.

Existing legal and institutional structures can facilitate coordination and collaboration across scales ( [[#DeCaro--2017|DeCaro et al., 2017]] ). Legislative mechanisms, such as the rules governing water uses in time of drought, already exist in some Mediterranean countries, but they might not be suitable to cope with irreversible changes (e.g., the depletion of groundwater aquifers) or be flexible enough to respond to the needs of water users under a changing climate ( [[#Nanni--2012|Nanni, 2012]] ). Although legislation can be recognised as a tool in support of adaptive water management, there is a need for better coordination among the various legal provisions that define institutional roles and set out the mechanisms for the management of water resources across different scales (regional/national/sub-national) and sectors (agriculture, industry, urban, energy).

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