Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

=== FAQ CCP6.2 | Is sea ice reduction in the polar regions driving an increase in shipping traffic? ===

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''The polar seas have captured the imagination of global nations for centuries for its natural resource, tourism, scientific, and maritime trade potential. As the polar regions are warming at two to three times the rate of the global average leading to rapid reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, international attention has been reinvigorated and investments are being made by Arctic and non-Arctic nations alike with a view to utilise newly accessible seaways. Between 2013 and 2019, ship traffic entering the Arctic grew by 25% and the total distance travelled increased by 75%. Similar shipping growth trends are evident in the Antarctic, albeit to a lesser extent. Expected growth in Arctic shipping will influence a suite of cascading environmental and cultural risks with implications for Indigenous Peoples.''

There has been debate among shipping stakeholders, rightsholders and experts about the extent to which climate change and sea ice change is directly influencing increases in shipping activity in the polar regions relative to other social, technological, political and economic factors such as commodity prices, tourism demand, global economic trends, infrastructure support and service availability. Understanding the connection between climate change and polar shipping activity will allow for more reliable projections of possible future traffic trends and will aid in identifying appropriate adaptation and infrastructure needs required to support future management of the industry. Recent studies have observed increasing statistical correlations between sea ice change and shipping trends in the polar regions, and many have concluded that although economic factors remain the main driver of shipping activities, followed by infrastructure availability, climate change does indeed play a varying but important role in influencing operator intentions. The ‘opening of polar seaways’ due to sea ice reduction is indeed ‘enabling’ opportunities for polar shipping among all types of vessels due to increasingly accessible areas that were previously covered by multi-year ice, but the extent to which climate change will specifically ‘drive’ an increase in shipping demand remains highly dependent on the vessel type and the reasons for operation. There are certain vessel types, such as those supporting international trade, mining operations or community re-supply, where analysis shows no correlation or weak correlations with sea ice change, suggesting that climate change is enabling these types of ships via increased open water areas and season lengths but that it is not necessarily driving demand. Conversely, there are certain vessel types, such as yachts and cruise ships, where correlations between sea ice change and traffic increases are stronger, and where there is evidence to suggest that these vessels are indeed driven to visit the polar regions because they perceive waterways as exotic and exciting due to being newly accessible or they want to have a Polar experience before it disappears or is irreversibly changed as is the case with last chance tourists. As sea ice recedes and polar shipping opportunities grow, there will be an increased need to better identify and implement Indigenous self-determined and equitable shipping governance frameworks that facilitate benefits and minimise risks.

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[[File:3b0291fb0f95acc5131b4fc275c8f150 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP6_FAQ_CCP6_2_1.png]]

'''Figure FAQ CCP6.2.1''' '''|''' '''Projected operational accessibility along Arctic maritime trade routes (Northwest Passage, Transpolar Route and Northern Sea Route) under future warming (left) and observed increases in commercial ship traffic along the routes from 2012 to 2019.'''

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