Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.3.4.2 Geographical Shifts of Emissions Embodied in Trade ====

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With the rapid growth of developing countries, the geographical centre of global trade as well as emissions embodies in trade is changing. The fast growth of Asian countries is shifting the global trade centre from Europe to Asia ( [[#Zhang--2019|Zhang et al. 2019]] ). Asian exports in monetary units increased by 235% from 1996 to 2011, and its share in global exports increased from 25% to 46%, whereas Europe’s share in global exports decreased from 51% in 1996 to 39% in 2011. After 2011, global trade has stalled, but Asia’s share of global exports further increased to 42% in 2020 ( [[#UNCTAD--2021|UNCTAD 2021]] ).

In addition to changes in trade volume, trading patterns have also been changing significantly in Asian countries. These countries are replacing traditional trading hubs (such as Russia and Germany) due to the fast growth in trade flows, especially with countries of the Global South ( [[#Zhang--2019|Zhang et al. 2019]] ). The largest geographical shifts in trade-embodied emissions between 1995 and 2011 occurred in high-tech, electronics, and machinery ( [[#Malik--2016|Malik and Lan 2016]] ; [[#Jiang--2018|]] [[#Jiang--2018|Jiang et al. 2018]] ). For example, China is shifting its exports to include more low-carbon and higher value-added goods and services. As a result, China’s exported emissions declined by 20% from 2008 to 2015 ( [[#Mi--2018|Mi et al. 2018]] ).

Developing countries are increasingly playing an important role in global trade. EET between developing countries, so-called South-South trade, has more than doubled between 2004 (0.47 Gt) and 2011 (1.11 Gt), which is seen as a reflection of a new phase of globalisation ( [[#Meng--2018|Meng et al. 2018]] ). Developing countries, therefore, have gained importance as global suppliers of goods and services and have also become more relevant as global consumers as they grow their domestic demand ( [[#Fernández-Amador--2016|Fernández-Amador et al. 2016]] ). Since 2014, CO 2 emission transfer between developing countries has plateaued and then slightly declined and seems to have stabilised at around the same level of transfers between non-OECD and OECD countries at around 2.4 GtCO 2 yr –1 ( [[#Wood--2020a|Wood et al. 2020a]] ). In both cases, a decrease in carbon intensity of trade just about offset increased trade volumes ( [[#Wood--2020a|Wood et al. 2020a]] ).

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