Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

=== Box 4.1 | Adaptation gap and NDCs ===

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NDCs have been an important driver of national adaptation planning, with cascading effects on sectors and sub-national action, especially in developing countries. Yet, only 40 developing countries have quantifiable adaptation targets in their current NDCs; 49 countries include quantifiable targets in their national legislation ( [[#UNEP--2018a|UNEP 2018a]] ).

Working Group II contribution to this Assessment finds that the overall extent of adaptation-related responses in human systems is low ( ''high confidence'' ) and that there is limited evidence on the extent to which adaptation-related responses in human systems are reducing climate risk (O’Neill et al. 2020). Thus there is an adaptation gap ( [[#UNEP--2018a|UNEP 2018a]] ), and bridging that gap requires enablers including institutional capacity, planning and investment ( [[#UNEP--2016|UNEP 2016]] ). Estimates of adaptation costs vary greatly across studies. Recent studies based on climate change under RCP8.5 report adaptation costs for developing countries of up to 400 billion (300 billion in RCP2.6) USD2005 in 2030 (New et al. 2020). Of the NDCs submitted in 2015, 50 countries estimated adaptation costs of USD39 billion annually. Both public and private finance for adaptation is increasing, but remains insufficient and constitutes a small fraction (4–8%) of total climate finance which is mostly aimed at mitigation. The pledge of developed countries of mobilising finance for developing countries to address adaptation needs globally as part of the Paris Agreement are insufficient. By 2030 the adaptation needs are expected to be three to six times larger than what is pledged, further increasing towards 2050 ( [[#UNEP--2016|UNEP 2016]] ; New et al. 2020).

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