Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-7 (section)

==== 7.3.1.1 Conversion of Natural Ecosystems to Agriculture ====

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Previous IPCC reports identify land-use change as an important driver of emissions and agriculture as a key driver of land-use change, causing both deforestation and wetland drainage (P. [[#Smith--2019|Smith et al. 2019]] a). The AR5 reported a trend of declining global agricultural land area since 2000 (Smith et al. 2014). The latest data ( [[#FAO--2021b|FAO 2021b]] ) indicate a 2% reduction in the global agricultural area between 2000 and 2019 (Figure 7.10). This area includes (though is not limited to) land under permanent and temporary crops or pasture, temporary fallow and natural meadows and pasture utilised for grazing or agricultural purposes ( [[#FAO--2021b|FAO 2021b]] ), although the extent of land used for grazing may not be fully captured ( [[#Fetzel--2017|Fetzel et al. 2017]] ). Data indicate changes in how agricultural land is used. Between 2000 and 2019, the area classified as permanent meadow and pasture decreased (–6%) while cropland area (under arable production and temporary crops) increased (+2%). A key driver of this change has been a general trend of intensification, including in livestock production (Barger et al. 2018; [[#OECD/FAO--2019|OECD/FAO 2019]] ; [[#UNEP--2019|UNEP 2019]] ), whereby less grazing land is supporting increasing livestock numbers in conjunction with greater use of crops as livestock feed (Barger et al. 2018). The share of feed crops, such as maize and soybean, of global crop production is projected to grow as the demand for animal feed increases with further intensification of livestock production ( [[#OECD/FAO--2019|OECD/FAO 2019]] ). Despite increased demand for food, feed, fuel and fibre from a growing human population ( [[#FAO--2019b|FAO 2019b]] ), global agricultural land area is projected to remain relatively stable during the next decade, with increases in production expected to result from agricultural intensification ( [[#OECD/FAO--2019|OECD/FAO 2019]] ).

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[[File:b0434d0760f149058329c3f76c6ebb5e IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_7_10.png]]

'''Figure 7.10 | Trends in average global and regional land area under specific land uses ( [[#FAO--2021b|FAO 2021b]] ), inorganic nitrogen fertiliser use ( [[#FAO--2021e|FAO 2021e]] ) (top) and number of livestock ( [[#FAO--2021c|FAO 2021c]] ) (bottom) for three decades.''' For land use classification ‘cropland’ represents the FAOSTAT category ‘arable land’ which includes land under temporary crops, meadow, pasture and fallow. ‘Forest’ and ‘permanent meadow and pasture’ follow FAOSTAT categories.

Despite a decline in global agricultural area, the latest data document some regional expansion between 2000 and 2019, specifically in Africa (+3%) and Asia and the Pacific (+1%). Agricultural area declined in all other regions, notably in developed countries (–9%), due to multiple factors including among others, urbanisation (see [[#7.3.1.2|Section 7.3.1.2]] ).

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