Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

== Executive Summary ==

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<div id="Vulnerability" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="vulnerability-and-observed-impacts"></span>
===== Vulnerability and observed impacts: =====

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'''Central and South America (CSA) are highly exposed, vulnerable and strongly impacted by climate change''' ''''',''''' '''a situation amplified by inequality, poverty, population growth and high population density, land use change particularly deforestation with the consequent biodiversity loss, soil degradation, and high dependence of national and local economies on natural resources for the production of commodities (''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-001|1]] ''').''' Profound economic, ethnic and social inequalities are exacerbated by climate change. High levels of widespread poverty, weak water governance, unequal access to safe water and sanitation services and lack of infrastructure and financing reduce adaptation capacity, increasing and creating new population vulnerabilities ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' {12.1.1, 12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2}

'''The Amazon forest, one of the world’s largest biodiversity and carbon repositories, is highly vulnerable to drought (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' The Amazon forest was highly impacted by the unprecedented droughts and higher temperatures observed in 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016, which are attributed partly to climate change. This resulted in high tree mortality rates and basin-wide reductions in forest productivity, momentarily turning pristine forest areas from a carbon sink into a net source of carbon to the atmosphere ( ''high confidence'' ). Other terrestrial ecosystems in CSA have been impacted by climate change, through persistent drought or extreme climatic events. The combined effect of anthropogenic land use change and climate change increases the vulnerabilities of terrestrial ecosystems to extreme climate events and fires ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10}

'''The distribution of terrestrial species has changed in the Andes due to increasing temperature (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Species have shifted upslope, leading to range contractions for highland species and range contractions and expansions for lowland species, including crops and vectors of diseases ( ''very high confidence'' ). {12.3.2.4}

'''Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region, such as coral reefs, estuaries, salt marshes, mangroves and sandy beaches, are highly sensitive and negatively impacted by climate change and derived hazards (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Observed impacts include the reduction in coral abundance, density and cover in Central America (CA), northwestern South America (NWS) and northeastern South America (NES) and an increasing number of coral bleaching events in CA and NES; other observed impacts are changes in the plankton community and in ocean and coastal food web structures, loss of vegetated wetlands and changes in macrobenthic communities in CA, NWS, northern South America (NSA) and southeastern South America (SES). {12.3, 12.5.2, Figure 12.8, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.3}

'''Global warming has caused glacier loss in the Andes from 30% to more than 50% of their area since the 1980s. Glacier retreat, temperature increase and precipitation variability, together with land use changes, have affected ecosystems, water resources and livelihoods through landslides and flood disasters (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' In several areas of the Andes, flood and landslide disasters have increased, and water availability and quality and soil erosion have been affected by both climatic and non-climatic factors ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.2, 12.3.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.13, Table SM12.6}

'''The scientific evidence since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) increased the confidence in the synergy among fire, land use change, particularly deforestation, and climate change, directly impacting human health, ecosystem functioning, forest structure, food security and the livelihoods of resource-dependent communities''' '''(''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Regional increases in temperature, aridity and drought increased the frequency and intensity of fire. On average, people in the region were more exposed to high fire danger between 1 and 26 additional days depending on the sub-region for the years 2017–2020 compared to 2001–2004 ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.2, 12.3, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10, Table 12.5}

'''Changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation and extreme temperatures are impacting agricultural production (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Since the mid-20th century, increasing mean precipitation has positively impacted agricultural production in SES, although extremely long dry spells have become more frequent, affecting the economies of large cities in southeastern Brazil. Conversely, reduced precipitation and altered rainfall at the start and end of the rainy season and during the mid-summer drought (MSD) is impacting rainfed subsistence farming, particularly in the Dry Corridor in CA and in the tropical Andes, compromising food security ( ''high confidence'' ). The crop growth duration for maize in those regions was reduced by at least 5% between 1981–2010 and 2015–2019. {12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.6, Table 12.4}

'''Climate change affects the epidemiology of climate-sensitive infectious diseases in the region (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Examples are the effects of warming temperatures on increasing the suitability of transmission of vector-borne diseases, including endemic and emerging arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika ( ''medium confidence'' ). The reproduction potential for the transmission of dengue increased between 17% and 80% for the period 1950–1954 to 2016–2021, depending on the sub-region, as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.3, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, Table 12.1}

'''The Andes, northeastern Brazil and the northern countries in CA are among the more sensitive regions to climatic-related migrations and displacements, a phenomenon that has increased since AR5 (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climatic drivers interact with social, political, geopolitical and economic drivers; the most common climatic drivers for migration and displacements are droughts, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.1.4, 12.3.2.4, 12.3.3.4, 12.3.5.4, 12.5.8.4}

'''The impacts of climate change are not of equal scope for men and women (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Women, particularly the poorest, are more vulnerable and are impacted in greater proportion. Often they have less capacity to adapt, further widening structural gender gaps ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.7.3, 12.5.2.4, 12.5.2.5, 12.5.7.3, 12.5.8.1, 12.5.8.3, 12.5.8.4}

<div id="Current" class="h4-container"></div>

<span id="current-adaptation-responses"></span>
===== Current adaptation responses: =====

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'''Ecosystem-based adaptation is the most common adaptation strategy for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' There is a focus on the protection of native terrestrial vegetation through the implementation of protected areas and payment for ecosystem services (PES), especially those related to water provision ''.'' The adaptation measures in place, however, are insufficient to safeguard terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the CSA from the negative impacts of climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.5.1, 12.5.3, 12.6}

'''Adaptation initiatives in ocean and coastal ecosystems mainly focus on conservation, protection and restoration)''' '''(''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The main adaptation measures are ocean zoning, the prohibition of productive activities (e.g., fisheries, aquaculture, mining and tourism) on marine ecosystems, the improvement of research and education programmes and the creation of specific national policies ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.5.2}

'''Adaptive water management has mainly centred on enhancing the quantity and quality of water supply, including large infrastructure projects, which, however, are often contested and can exacerbate water-related conflicts (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Inclusive water regimes that overcome social inequalities and approaches including nature-based solutions, such as wetland restoration and water storage and infiltration infrastructure, with synergies for ecosystem conservation and disaster risk reduction, have been found to be more successful for adaptation and sustainable development ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.5.3, 12.6.1, 12.6.3}

'''Adaptation strategies for agricultural production are increasing in the region as a response to current and projected changes in climate (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The main observed adaptation strategies in agriculture and forestry are soil and water management conservation, crop diversification, climate-smart agriculture, early-warning systems (EWSs), upward shifting for plantations to avoid warming habitat and pests and improved management of pastures and livestock. Adaptation requires governance improvements and new strategies to address the changing climate; nevertheless, barriers limiting adaptive capacity persist such as lack of educational programmes for farmers, adequate knowledge of site-specific adaptation and institutional and financial constraints ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' {12.5.4}

'''Urban adaptation in the region includes solutions on regulation, planning, urban water management and housing (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Regulation, planning and control systems are central tools for reducing risk associated with the security of buildings and their location and the proper supply of basic urban services and transport ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' The adoption of nature-based solutions (e.g., urban agriculture and river restoration) and hybrid (grey-green) infrastructure is still in the early stages, with weak connections to poverty and inequality reduction strategies ( ''medium confidence'' ). Focusing on risk reduction encompasses upgrading informal and precarious settlements, built environments and housing conditions, which offer an important but still limited contribution to urban adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.5.5, 12.5.7, 12.6.1}

'''Adaptation initiatives for the health sector are mainly focused on the development of climate services such as integrated climate-health surveillance and observatories, forecasting climate-related disasters and vulnerability maps (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate services for the health sector are largely focused on epidemic forecast tools and associated EWSs for vector-borne diseases and heat and cold waves. Political, institutional and financial barriers reduce the feasibility of implementing these tools ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.5.6, Table 12.9, Table 12.11}

'''Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) are crucial for the adaptation and resilience of social-ecological systems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' IKLK can contribute to reducing the vulnerability of local communities to climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.5.1, 12.5.8, 12.6.2}

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<span id="what-are-the-projected-impacts-and-key-risks"></span>
===== What are the projected impacts and key risks? =====

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'''Climate change is projected to convert existing risks in the region into severe key risks (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Key risks are assessed as follows: 1. Risk of food insecurity due to droughts; 2. Risk to people and infrastructure due to floods and landslides; 3. Risk of water insecurity due to declining snow cover, shrinking glaciers and rainfall variability; 4. Risk of increasing epidemics, particularly of vector-borne diseases; 5. Cascading risks surpassing public service systems; 6. Risk of large-scale changes and biome shifts in the Amazon; 7. Risks to coral reef ecosystems; and 8. Risks to coastal socioecological systems due to sea level rise (SLR), storm surges and coastal erosion. {12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}

'''Impacts on rural livelihoods and food security, particularly for small and medium-sized farmers and Indigenous peoples in the mountains, are projected to worsen, including the overall reduction of agricultural production, suitable farming area and water availability (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Projected yield reductions by 2050 under the A2 scenario are as follows: beans 19%, maize 4–21%, rice 23% in CA with seasonal droughts projected to lengthen, intensify and increase in frequency. Small fisheries and farming of seafood will be negatively affected as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events become more frequent and intense and ocean warming and acidification continues ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.2, 12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.4}

'''Extreme precipitation events, which result in floods, landslides and droughts, are projected to intensify in magnitude and frequency due to climate change (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Floods and landslides pose a risk to life and infrastructure; a 1.5°C increase would result in an increase of 100–200% in the population affected by floods in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, 300% in Ecuador and 400% in Peru ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.3, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.5}

'''Increasing water scarcity and competition over water are projected (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Disruption in water flows will significantly degrade ecosystems such as high-elevation wetlands and affect farming communities, public health and energy production ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3, Figure 12.3, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11}

'''In coming decades, endemic and emerging climate-sensitive infectious diseases are projected to increase (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' This can happen through expanded distribution of vectors, especially viral infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in transition areas between urban and suburban, or rural settings, and upslope in the mountains ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.3.2, 12.3.5, 12.3.7, Figure 12.5, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}

'''The positive feedback between climate change and land use change, particularly deforestation, is projected to increase the threat to the Amazon forest, resulting in the increase of fire occurrence, forest degradation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and long-term loss of forest structure (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The combined effect of both impacts will lead to a long-term decrease in carbon stocks in forest biomass, compromising Amazonia’s role as a carbon sink, largely conditioned on the forest’s responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 ( ''medium confidence'' ). The southern portion of the Amazon has become a net carbon source to the atmosphere in the past decade ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.3, 12.3.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}

'''Up to 85% of natural systems (plant and animal species, habitats and communities) evaluated in the literature for biodiversity hotspots in the region are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Available studies focus mainly on vertebrates and plants of the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado in Brazil and in CA, with a large knowledge gap on freshwater ecosystems {12.3, 12.5.1, CCP1}

'''Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region will continue to be highly impacted by climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Coral reefs are projected to lose their habitat, change their distribution range and suffer more bleaching events driven by ocean warming. In the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, by 2050, virtually every coral reef will experience at least one severe bleaching event per year ( ''high confidence'' ). Under all RCP scenarios of climate change, there will be changes in the geographical distribution of marine species and ocean and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, estuaries and rocky shores, as well as those species held in fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ). {Figure 12.9, Table SM12.3, Table SM12.4}

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===== Contribution of adaptation to solutions and barriers to adaptation =====

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'''Policies and actions at multiple scales and the participation of actors from all social groups, including the most exposed and vulnerable populations, are critical elements for effective adaptation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Engaging social movements and local actors in policymaking and planning for adaptation generate positive synergies and better results. Adaptation policies and programmes that consider age, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity are more efficient because these factors determine vulnerability and potential benefits of adaptation. Socioeconomic and political factors that provide some level of safety and continuity of policies and actions are critical enablers of adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' {12.5.1, 12.5.2, 12.5.7, 12.5.8, 12.6.4}

'''The knowledge and awareness of climate change as a threat have been increasing since AR5 due to the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the region, information available and climate justice activism (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Conflicts in which the direct biophysical impacts of climate change play a major role can unleash protests and strengthen social movements ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.5.8, 12.6.4}

'''Research approaches that integrate IKLK systems with natural and social sciences have increased since AR5 (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' and are helping to improve decision-making processes in the region, reduce maladaptation and foster transformational adaptation through the integration with ecosystem-based adaptation and community-based adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.5.1, 12.5.8, 12.6.2}

'''The most widely reported obstacle to adaptation in terrestrial, freshwater, ocean and coastal ecosystems is financing (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' There is also a significant gap in identifying limits to adaptation and weak institutional capacity for implementation. This hinders the development of comprehensive adaptation programmes, even under adequate funding. {12.5.1, 12.5.2}

'''The use of climate-smart agriculture technologies strengthening synergies among productivity and mitigation is rising as an important adaptation strategy in the region (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Pertinent information for farmers provided by climate information services is facilitating the understanding of the role of climate compared with other drivers in perceived productivity changes. Index insurance builds resilience and contributes to adaptation by protecting farmers’ assets in the face of major climate shocks, by promoting access to credit and by the adoption of improved farm technologies and practices. {12.5.4}

'''Institutional instability, fragmented services and poor water management, inadequate governance structures, insufficient data and analysis of adaptation experience are barriers to addressing the water challenges in the region (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' {12.5.3}

'''Inequality, poverty and informality shaping cities in the region increase vulnerability to climate change, while policies, plans or interventions addressing these social challenges with inclusive approaches represent opportunities for adaptation''' '''(''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Initiatives to improve informal and precarious settlement, guaranteeing access to land and decent housing, are aligned with comprehensive adaptation policies that include the development and reduction of poverty, inequality and disaster risk ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.5.5, 12.5.7}

Adaptation policies often address climate impact drivers, but seldom include the social and economic underpinnings of vulnerability. This narrow scope limits adaptation results and compromises their continuity in the region (high confidence). In a context of unaddressed underdevelopment, adaptation policies tackling poverty and inequality are marginal, underfunded and not clearly included at national, regional or urban levels. Dialogue and agreement that include multiple actors are mechanisms to acknowledge trade-offs and promote dynamic, site-specific adaptation options (medium confidence). {12.5.7}

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<span id="introduction"></span>