Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

== Executive Summary ==

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===== Where Are We Now? =====

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'''Our current 1.1''' ° '''C warmer world is already affecting natural and human systems in Europe (''' '''''very''''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-001|1]] ''').''' Since AR5, there has been a substantial increase in detected or attributed impacts of climate change in Europe, including extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). Impacts of compound hazards of warming and precipitation have become more frequent ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate change has resulted in losses of, and damages to, people, ecosystems, food systems, infrastructure, energy and water availability, public health and the economy ( ''very high confidence'' ) {13.1.4;13.2.1;13.3.1;13.4.1; 13.5.1;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.8.1;13.10.1} .

'''As impacts vary both across and within European regions, sectors, and societal groups (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), inequalities have deepened (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Southern regions tend to be more negatively affected, while some benefits have been observed, alongside negative impacts in northern and central regions. Traditional lifestyles, for example in the European Arctic, are threatened already ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Poor households have lower capacity to adapt to, and recover from, impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.5.1;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.8.1.;13.8.2;13.10.1;Box 13.2} .

'''The range of options available to deal with climate-change impacts has increased in most of Europe since AR5 (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Growing public perception and adaptation knowledge in public and private sectors, the increasing number of policy and legal frameworks, and dedicated spending on adaptation are all clear indications that the availability of options has expanded ( ''high confidence'' ). Information provision, technical measures and government policies are the most common adaptation actions implemented. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) that restore or recreate ecosystems, build resilience and produce synergies with adaptation and mitigation are increasingly used. Many cities are taking adaptation action, but with large differences in level of ambition and implementation ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.10.2;13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3} .

'''Observed adaptation actions are largely incremental with only a few examples of local transformative action; adaptation actions have demonstrated different degrees of effectiveness in reducing impacts and feasibility of implementation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' For example, adaptation actions such as flood defences and early warning systems have reduced flood damages and heat-related mortality in parts of Europe. Despite progress in adaptation, impacts are observed. Adaptation actions in the private sector are limited, with many businesses and regions remaining under-prepared. A gap remains between planning and implementation of adaptation action ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.2.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.11} .

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===== What Are the Future Risks? =====

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'''Warming in Europe will continue to rise faster than the global mean, widening risk disparities across Europe in the 21st century (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Largely negative impacts are projected for southern regions (e.g., increased cooling needs and water demand, losses in agricultural production and water scarcity) and some short-term benefits are anticipated in the north (e.g., increased crop yields and forest growth) {13.1.4;13.2.1;13.3.1;13.4.1;13.5.1;13.6;13.7.1;13.10.2} .

'''Four key risks (KR) have been identified for Europe, with most becoming more severe at 2''' '''°C global warming levels (GWL) compared with 1.5°C GWL in scenarios with low to medium adaptation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' From 3°C GWL and even with high adaptation, severe risks remain for many sectors in Europe ( ''high confidence'' ). Key risks are: mortality and morbidity of people and ecosystems disruptions due to heat (KR1: heat); loss in agricultural production due to combined heat and droughts (KR2: agriculture); water scarcity across sectors (KR3: water scarcity); impacts of floods on people, economies and infrastructure (KR4: flooding) {13.10.2} .

'''KR1: The number of deaths and people at risk of heat stress will increase two- to threefold at 3''' ° '''C compared with 1.5''' ° '''C GWL (''' '''''high confiden''''' '''ce).''' Risk consequences will become severe more rapidly in Southern and Western Central Europe and urban areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Thermal comfort hours during summer will decrease significantly ( ''high confidence'' ), by as much as 74% in Southern Europe at 3°C GWL. Above 3°C GWL, there are limits to the adaptation potential of people and existing health systems, particularly in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and areas where health systems are under pressure ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.6.1;13.6.2;13.7.1;13.7.2;13.8.1;13.10.2.1} .

'''KR1: Warming will decrease suitable habitat space for current terrestrial and marine ecosystems and irreversibly change their composition, increasing in severity above 2''' ° '''C GWL (''' '''''very''''' '''''high''''' '''''confidence''''' ''').''' Fire-prone areas are projected to expand across Europe, threatening biodiversity and carbon sinks ( ''medium confidence'' ). Adaptation actions (e.g., habitat restoration and protection, fire and forest management, and agroecology) can increase the resilience of ecosystems and their services. Trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation options (e.g., coastal infrastructure and NbS) will result in risks for the integrity and function of ecosystems ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.3.1;13.3.2;13.4.1;13.4.2;13.10.2.1; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2} .

'''KR2: Due to a combination of heat and drought, substantive agricultural production losses are projected for most European areas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by gains in Northern Europe (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Yield losses for maize will reach 50% in response to 3°C GWL, especially in Southern Europe. Yields of some crops (e.g., wheat) may increase in Northern Europe if warming does not exceed 2°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). While irrigation is an effective adaptation option for agriculture, the ability to adapt using irrigation will be increasingly limited by water availability, especially in response to GWL above 3°C ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.5.1;13.5.2;13.10.2.2} .

'''KR3: Risk of water scarcity will become high at 1.5''' ° '''C and very high at 3''' ° '''C GWL in Southern Europe (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), and increase from moderate to high in Western Central Europe (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' In Southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be exposed to water scarcity at 2°C GWL; under 3°C GWL, this risk will double, and significant economic losses in water- and energy-dependent sectors may arise ( ''medium confidence'' ). For Western Central and Southern Europe, and for many cities, the risk of water scarcity will be strongly increasing under 3°C GWL. Adaptation becomes increasingly difficult at 3°C GWL and above, due to geophysical and technological limits; hard limits are ''likely'' [[#footnote-000|2]] first reached in parts of Southern Europe {13.2.1;13.2.2;13.6.1;13.10.2.3} .

'''KR4: Due to warming, changes in precipitation and sea level rise (SLR), risks to people and infrastructures from coastal, riverine and pluvial flooding will increase in Europe (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Risks of inundation and extreme flooding will increase with the accelerating pace of SLR along Europe’s coasts ( ''high confidence'' ). Above 3°C GWL, damage costs and people affected by precipitation and river flooding may double. Coastal flood damage is projected to increase at least tenfold by the end of the 21st century, and even more or earlier with current adaptation and mitigation ( ''high confidence'' ). Sea level rise represents an existential threat for coastal communities and their cultural heritage, particularly beyond 2100 {13.2.1;13.2.2;13.6.2;13.10.2.4;Box 13.1; Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3} .

'''European cities are hotspots for multiple risks of increasing temperatures and extreme heat, floods and droughts (''' '''''high''''' '''''confidence''''' ''').''' Warming beyond 2°C GWL is projected to result in widespread impacts on infrastructure and businesses ( ''high confidence'' ). These impacts include increased risks for energy supply ( ''high confidence'' ) and transport infrastructure ( ''medium confidence'' ), increases in air conditioning needs ( ''very high confidence'' ) and high water demand ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.2.2;13.6.1;13.7.1;13.10.2} .

'''European regions are affected by multiple key risks, with more severe consequences in the south than in the north (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These risks may co-occur and amplify each other, but there is uncertainty about their interactions and their quantifications. There is ''high confidence'' that consequences for socioeconomic and natural systems will be substantial: the number of people exposed to KRs and economic losses are projected to at least double at 3°C GWL compared with 1.5°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ); and increased risks are also projected for biodiversity and ecosystem services, such as carbon regulation. The risks resulting from changes in climatic and non-climatic drivers in many sectors is a key gap in knowledge ( ''high confidence'' ). This gap prevents the precise assessment of systemic risks, socio-ecological tipping points and limits to adaptation {13.10.2;13.10.3;13.10.4} .

'''Climate risks from outside Europe are emerging due to a combination of the position of European countries in the global supply chain and shared resources (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' There is emerging evidence that climate risks in Europe may also impact financial markets, food production and marine resources beyond Europe. Exposure of European countries to inter-regional risks can be reduced by international governance and collaboration on adaptation in other regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.5.2;13.9.1;13.9.2;13.11; Cross-Chapter Box INTEREG in Chapter16} .

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===== What Are the Solutions, Limits and Opportunities of Adaptation? =====

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'''There are a growing range of adaptation options available today to deal with future climate risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Examples of adaptation to the key risks include: behavioural change combined with building interventions, space cooling and urban planning to manage heat risks (KR1); restoration, expansion and connection of protected areas for ecosystems, while generating adaptation and mitigation benefits for people (KR1: heat); irrigation, vegetation cover, changes in farming practices, crop and animal species, and shifting planting (KR2: agriculture); efficiency improvements, water storage, water reuse, early warning systems and land-use change (KR3: water scarcity); early warning systems, reserving space for water and ecosystem-based adaptation, sediment or engineering-based options, land-use change and managed retreat (KR4: flooding). Nature-based Solutions for flood protection and heat alleviation are themselves under threat from warming, extreme heat, drought and SLR ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.9.4;13.10.2;13.11} .

'''In many parts of Europe, existing and planned adaptation measures are not sufficient to avoid the residual risk, especially beyond 1.5''' ° '''C GWL (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Residual risk can result in losses of habitat and ecosystem services, heat related deaths (KR1), crop failures (KR2), water rationing during droughts in Southern Europe (KR3) and loss of land (KR4) ( ''medium confidence'' ). At 3°C GWL and beyond, a combination of many, maybe even all, adaptation options are needed, including transformational changes, to reduce residual risk ( ''medium confidence'' ). {13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.9.4;13.10.2;13.11} .

'''Although adaptation is happening across Europe, it is not implemented at the scale, depth and speed needed to avoid the risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Many sectors and systems, such as flood risk management, critical infrastructure and reforestation, are on self-reinforcing development paths that can result in lock-ins and prevent changes needed to reduce risks in the long term and achieve adaptation targets. Forward-looking and adaptive planning can prevent path dependencies and maladaptation, and ensure timely action ( ''high confidence'' ). Monitoring climate change, socioeconomic developments and progress on implementation is critical in assessing if and when further actions are needed, and evaluating whether adaptation is successful {13.2.2;13.10.2;13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17} .

'''Systemic barriers constrain the implementation of adaptation options in vulnerable sectors, regions and societal groups (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Key barriers are limited resources, lack of private-sector and citizen engagement, insufficient mobilisation of finance, lack of political leadership and low sense of urgency. Most of the adaptation options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources, creating competition and trade-offs, also with mitigation options and socioeconomic developments ( ''high confidence'' ). Europe will face difficult decisions balancing these trade-offs. Novel adaptation options are pilot tested across Europe, but upscaling remains challenging. Prioritisation of options and transitions from incremental to transformational adaptation are limited due to vested interests, economic lock-ins, institutional path dependencies and prevalent practices, cultures, norms and belief systems {13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3} .

'''Several windows of opportunity emerge to accelerate climate resilient development (CRD) (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Such windows are either institutionalised (e.g., budget cycles, policy reforms and evaluations, infrastructure investment cycles) or open unexpectedly (e.g., extreme events, COVID-19 recovery programmes). These windows can be used to accelerate action through mainstreaming and transformational actions ( ''medium confidence'' ). This CRD is visible in European cities, particularly in green infrastructure, energy-efficient buildings and construction, and where co-benefits (e.g., to health, biodiversity) have been identified. Private-sector adaptation takes place mostly in response to extreme events or regulatory, shareholder or consumer pressures and incentives ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.11.3; Box 13.3; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7} .

'''Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond short-term planning and ensuring timely and adequate implementation''' '''(''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Inclusive, equitable and just adaptation pathways are critical for CRD. Such pathways require consideration of SDGs, gender and Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) and practices. The success of adaptation will depend on our understanding of which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context (high confidence). Long lead times for nature-based and infrastructure solutions or planned relocation require implementation in the coming decade to reduce risks in time. To close the adaptation gap, political commitment, persistence and consistent action across scales of government, and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital, is key (high confidence), even when the benefits are not immediately visible {13.2.2;13.8;13.11; Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18} .

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