Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

== Executive Summary ==

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=== Current Impacts ===

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'''Climate change impacts are stressing agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, increasingly hindering efforts to meet human needs (''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-004|1]] ''')''' . Human-induced warming has slowed growth of agricultural productivity over the past 50 years in mid and low latitudes ( ''medium confidence'' ). Crop yields are compromised by surface ozone ( ''high confidence'' ). Methane emissions have negatively impacted crop yields by increasing temperatures and surface ozone concentrations ( ''medium confidence'' ). Warming is negatively affecting crop and grassland quality and harvest stability ( ''high'' co ''nfidence'' ). Warmer and drier conditions have increased tree mortality and forest disturbances in many temperate and boreal biomes ( ''high confidence'' ), negatively impacting provisioning services ( ''medium confidence'' ). Ocean warming has decreased sustainable yields of some wild fish populations ( ''high confidence'' ). Ocean acidification and warming have already affected farmed aquatic species ( ''high'' co ''nfidence'' ). {5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.5.1, 5.6.1, 5.7.1, 5.8.1, 5.9.1}

'''Warming has altered the distribution, growing area suitability and timing of key biological events, such as flowering and insect emergence, impacting food quality and harvest stability''' '''''(high confidence)''''' . It is ''very likely'' [[#footnote-003|2]] that climate change is altering the distribution of cultivated, wild terrestrial, marine and freshwater species. At higher latitudes, warming has expanded potential area but has also altered phenology ( ''high confidence'' ), potentially causing plant–pollinator and pest mismatches ( ''medium confidence'' ). At low latitude, temperatures have crossed upper tolerance thresholds, more frequently leading to heat stress ( ''high'' co ''nfidence'' ). {5.4.1, 5.7.4, 5.8.1, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter , 5.12.3.4}

'''Climate-related extremes have affected the productivity of all agricultural and fishery sectors, with negative consequences for food security and livelihoods (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The frequency of sudden food production losses has increased since at least mid-20th century on land and sea ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). Droughts, floods and marine heatwaves contribute to reduced food availability and increased food prices, threatening food security, nutrition and livelihoods of millions ( ''high confidence'' ). Droughts induced by the 2015–2016 El Niño, partially attributable to human influences ( ''medium confidence'' ), caused acute food insecurity in various regions, including eastern and southern Africa and the dry corridor of Central America ( ''high confidence'' ). In the northeast Pacific, a recent 5-year warm period impacted the migration, distribution and abundance of key fish resources ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing variability in grazing systems has negatively affected animal fertility, mortality and herd recovery rates, reducing livestock keepers’ resilience ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 5.2.1, 5.4.1, 5.4.2, 5.5.2,5.8.1, 5.9.1, 5.12.1, 5.14.2, 5.14.6, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter; WGI AR6 Sections 11.2–11.8}

'''Climate change impacts everybody, but vulnerable groups''' , '''such as women, children, low-income households, Indigenous or other minority groups and small-scale producers, are often at higher risk of malnutrition, livelihood loss, rising costs and competition over resources (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Increasing competition for land, energy and water exacerbates impacts of climate change on food security ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.4.2.2, 5.5.2.6; 5.8.2.2, 5.9.2.1, 5.12.2, 5.12.3.1; 5.12.3.2; 5.12.3.3; 5.13.1, 5.13.3, 5.13.4}

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=== Projected Impacts ===

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'''Climate change will make some current food production areas unsuitable (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Current global crop and livestock areas will increasingly become climatically unsuitable under a high-emission scenario ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., 10% by 2050, over 30% by 2100 under SSP-8.5 versus below 8% by 2100 under SSP1-2.6). Increased, potentially concurrent climate extremes will periodically increase simultaneous losses in major food-producing regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.2.2, 5.4.1, 5.4.3, 5.5.2, 5.5.3, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in this chapter, &lt;a class='section-link' data-title='Projected Impacts on Food Security' href='/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-5#5.12.4'&gt;Section 5.12.4&lt;/a&gt;; WGI Section 11.8}

'''Impacts on food availability and nutritional quality will increase the number of people at risk of hunger, malnutrition and diet-related mortality (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate change will increase the number of people at risk of hunger in mid-century, concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America ( ''high confidence'' ) (e.g., between 8 million under SSP1-6.0 and 80 million people under SSP3-6.0). Increased CO 2 concentrations will reduce nutrient density of some crops ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate change will increase loss of years of full health [[#footnote-002|3]] by 10% in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 because of undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). {5.2.2, 5.4.2, 5.4.3, 5.12.1.2, 5.12.4; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter}

'''Climate change will increasingly expose outdoor workers and animals to heat stress, reducing labour capacity, animal health, and dairy and meat production''' ( ''high confidence'' ). The number of days with climatically stressful conditions for outdoor workers will increase by up to 250 workdays per year by century’s end in some parts of South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Central and South America under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5, with negative consequences such as reduced food productivity, higher costs and prices ( ''medium confidence'' ). From early- to end-century, cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry in the low latitudes will face 72–136 additional days per year of extreme stress from high heat and humidity under SSP5-8.5. Meat and milk productivity will be reduced ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.5.3.4; 5.12.4}

'''Climate change will further increase pressures on terrestrial ecosystem services supporting global food systems (''' '''''high''''' '''co''' '''''nfidence''''' ''').''' Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Greenhouse-gas emissions will negatively impact air, soil and water quality, exacerbating direct climatic impacts on yields ( ''high'' co ''nfidence)'' . {5.4.3, Box 5.3, Box 5.4, 5.5.3.4; 5.7.1, 5.7.4, 5.10.3}

'''Climate change will significantly alter aquatic food provisioning services and water security with regional variances (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate change will reduce marine fisheries and aquaculture productivity, altering the species that will be fished or cultured, and reducing aquaculture habitat in tropical and subtropical areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Global ocean animal biomass will decrease by 5–17% under RCP2.6 and 8.5, respectively, from 1970 to 2100 with an average decline of 5% for every 1°C of warming, affecting food provisioning, revenue value and distribution ( ''medium confidence'' ). Global marine aquaculture will decline under warming and acidification from 2020 to 2100, with potential short-term gains for temperate finfish and overall negative impacts on bivalve aquaculture from habitat reduction (50–100% for some countries in the Northern Hemisphere) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Changes in precipitation, sea level, temperature and extreme climate events will affect food provisioning from inland and coastal aquatic systems ( ''high confidence'' ). Sea level rise and altered precipitation will increase coastal inundation and water conflicts between water-dependent sectors, such as rice production, direct human use and hydropower ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.8.3, 5.9.3, 5.13, Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3}

'''The occurrence and distribution of pests, weeds and diseases, including zoonoses, in agricultural, forest and food systems (terrestrial and aquatic) will be altered, and their control will become costlier (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Changes in the rates of reproduction and distribution of weeds, insect pests, pathogens and disease vectors will increase biotic stress on crops, forests and livestock, and will increase the risk of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). Risks will increase for climate-driven emerging zoonoses ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). {5.4.1.3, 5.9.4, Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter}

'''Forest production systems will have variable responses to climate change across regions, with negative effects being more predominant in tropical forests (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' In temperate and boreal regions, some productivity gains are projected, but tree mortality will increase in some areas ( ''high confidence'' ). In tropical forests, change in species composition and forest structure will lower production ''(medium confidence'' ). Some models project a possible increase in global wood supply and lowering of average wood prices, but they do not account for the negative impacts of extreme events and thus possibly overestimate the wood supply ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.6.2}

'''Climate change will negatively impact food safety (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Higher temperatures and humidity will favour toxigenic fungi, plant and animal-based pathogens, and harmful algal blooms (HABs) ( ''high confidence'' ). More frequent and intense flood events and increased melting of snow and ice will increase food contamination ( ''high confidence'' ). Incidence and severity of HABs and water-borne diseases will increase, as will indirect effects from infrastructure damage during extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.4.3, 5.5.2.3, 5.8.1, 5.8.2, 5.8.3, 5.9.1, 5.11.1, 5.11.3, 5.12.3; Cross-Chapter Box ILLNESS in Chapter 2}

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=== Adaptation ===

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'''Many autonomous adaptation options have been implemented in both terrestrial and aquatic systems, but on-farm adaptations are insufficient to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Autonomous responses include livestock and farm management, switching varieties/species and altered timing of key farm activities such as planting or stocking ( ''high confidence'' ). However, because of limited adaptive capacities and non-climatic compounding drivers of food insecurity, SDG2 will not be met ( ''high confidence'' ). {Table 5.1, 5.4.4; 5.5.4, 5.9.4, 5.10.4; 5.12.4}

'''Various adaptation options are currently feasible and effective at reducing climate impacts in different socio-cultural, economic and geographical contexts (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), but some lack adequate economic or institutional feasibility or information on limits (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Feasible and effective options include cultivar improvements, community-based adaptation, agricultural diversification, climate services, adaptive eco-management in fisheries and aquaculture. There is ''limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' on the institutional feasibility or cost effectiveness of adaptation activities, and the limits to such adaptations. {5.4.4, 5.5.4, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, 5.10.4, 5.11.4, 5.12.4, 5.14.1}

'''Ecosystem-based approaches such as diversification, land restoration, agroecology and agroforestry have the potential to strengthen resilience to climate change with multiple co-benefits, but trade-offs and benefits vary with socio-ecological context (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Ecosystem-based approaches support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes ( ''high confidence'' ), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.4.4.4, 5.6.3, 5.10.4, 5.14.1, Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY this chapter}

'''Bio-based products as part of a circular bioeconomy have potential to support adaptation and mitigation, with sectoral integration, transparent governance and stakeholder involvement key to maximising benefits and managing trade-offs (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' A sustainable bioeconomy relying on bioresources will need to be supported by technology innovation and international cooperation and governance of global trade to disincentivise environmental and social externalities ( ''medium confidence'' ). {Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY this chapter}

'''Sustainable resource management in response to distribution shifts of terrestrial and aquatic species under climate change is an effective adaptation option to reduce food and nutritional risk, conflict and loss of livelihood (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptive transboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood diversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing will reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably harvested wild products and revenues ( ''medium confidence'' ). Other options include shared quotas and access rights considering trade-offs, shifting livelihoods to follow target species, new markets for emerging species, and technology {Cross Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, 5.8.4, 5.14.3.4}

'''Implemented adaptation in crop production will be insufficient to offset the negative effects of climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Currently available management options have the potential to compensate global crop production losses due to climate change up to ~2°C warming, but the negative impacts even with adaptation will grow substantially from the mid-century under high temperature change scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). Regionally, the negative effects will prevail sooner where current temperatures are already higher as in lower latitudes ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.2.2, 5.4.3, 5.4.4, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, 5.14.2.4}

'''Supportive public policies will enhance effectiveness and/or feasibility of adaptation in ecosystem provisioning services (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Policies that support system transitions include shifting subsidies, removing perverse incentives, regulation and certification, green public procurement, investment in sustainable value chains, support for capacity-building, access to insurance premiums, payments for ecosystem services, and social protection, among others ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.4.4.3; 5.4.4.4; 5.10.4.4; 5.12.6; 5.13.4; 5.14.1.3; 5.14.2.4; Box 5.13, Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 2}

'''Harnessing youth innovation and vision alongside other SDGs such as gender equity, Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, and urban and rural livelihoods, will support effective climate change adaptation to ensure resilient economies in food systems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptation strategies that address power inequities lead to co-benefits in equity outcomes and resilience for vulnerable groups ( ''medium confidence'' ). Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge facilitate adaptation strategies for ecosystem provisioning, especially when combined with scientific knowledge using participatory and community-based approaches ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.4.4.3, Table 5.6, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.2, 5.9.4.1, 5.9.5, 5.10.2.2, 5.12.7, 5.12.8, 5.13.4, 5.13.5, 5.14.1.1, 5.14.1.2, 5.14.1.4,5.14.2.1, Box 5.13, 5.14.2.2 }

'''Policy decisions related to climate change adaptation and mitigation that ignore or worsen risks of adverse effects for different groups and ecosystems increase vulnerability, negatively affect capacity to deal with climate impacts, and impede sustainable development (''' '''''medium confidence with robust evidence, medium agreement''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Lacking sufficient stakeholder participation, large-scale land acquisitions have had mostly negative implications for vulnerable groups and climate change adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Policy and programme appraisal of adaptation options that consider the risks of adverse effects across different groups at different scales and use inclusive rights-based approaches help avoid maladaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Successful forest adaptation involves recognition of land rights and cooperation with Indigenous Peoples and other local communities who depend on forest resources ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.6.3; 5.12.3, 5.13.1; 5.13.2; 5.14.2.1}

'''Financial barriers limit implementation of adaptation options in agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry, and vastly more public and private investment is required (''' '''''high confidence)''''' '''.''' Public-sector investment in adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries has grown four-fold since 2010, but adaptation costs will be much higher to meet future adaptation needs ( ''medium confidence'' ). Expanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks will enable and incentivise climate change adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.14.3, 5.14.5., Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17}

'''Climate resilient development pathways offer a way forward to guide climate action in food system transitions, but operationalisation is hampered by limited indicators and analyses (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Robust analyses are needed that detail plausible pathways to move towards more resilient, equitable and sustainable food systems in ways that are socially, economically and environmentally acceptable through time (high confidence). Appropriate monitoring and rapid feedback to food system actors will be critical to the success of many current and future adaptation actions (high confidence). {5.14.4}

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