Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

== Executive Summary ==

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'''Adverse impacts of climate change, development deficits and inequality exacerbate each other. Existing vulnerabilities and inequalities intensify with adverse impacts of climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-005|1]] ''').''' These impacts disproportionately affect marginalised groups, amplifying inequalities and undermining sustainable development across all regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Due to their socioeconomic conditions and the broader development context, many poor communities, especially in regions with high levels of vulnerability and inequality, are less resilient to diverse climate impacts ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.2, 8.3.3}

'''Under all emissions scenarios, climate change reduces capacities for adaptive responses and limits choices and opportunities for sustainable development. Higher levels of global warming lead to greater constraints on societies. Climate change increases the threat of chronic and sudden onset development challenges, such as poverty traps and food insecurity (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptation interventions and transformative solutions that prioritise inclusive and wide-ranging climate resilient development and the reduction of poverty and inequality are increasingly seen as necessary to minimise loss and damage from climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.2.1, 8.2.2, 8.3.1, 8.3.2, 8.3.3}

'''Observed societal impacts of climate change, such as mortality due to floods, droughts and storms, are much greater for regions with high vulnerability compared to regions with low vulnerability, which reveals the different starting points that regions have in their move towards climate resilient development (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Observed average mortality from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for regions and countries ranked as very high vulnerable, such as Mozambique, Somalia, Nigeria, Afghanistan and Haiti compared to very low vulnerable regions and countries, such as UK, Australia, Canada and Sweden in the last decade ( ''high confidence'' ). Over 3.3 billion people are living in countries classified as very highly or highly vulnerable, while around 1.8 billion people live in countries with low or very low vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ). Approximately 3.6 billion people live in low and lower middle-income countries, which are most vulnerable and disproportionally bear the human costs of disasters due to extreme weather events and hazards ( ''high confidence'' ). The population in most vulnerable countries is projected to increase significantly by 2050 and 2100, while the population in countries with low vulnerability is projected to decrease or grow only slightly. Vulnerability is a result of many interlinked issues concerning poverty, migration, inequality, access to basic services, education, institutions and governance capacities, often made more complex by past developments, such as histories of colonialism ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.3.2, 8.3.3}

'''A growing range of economic and non-economic losses have been detected and attributed to climate extremes and slow-onset events under observed increases in global temperatures (''' '''''medium evidence, high agreement''''' ''').''' If future climate change under high emissions scenarios continues and increases risks, without strong adaptation measures, losses and damages will ''likely'' [[#footnote-004|2]] be concentrated among the poorest vulnerable populations ( ''high confidence'' ). The intersection of inequality and poverty presents significant adaptation limits, resulting in residual risks for people and groups in vulnerable situations, including women, youth, elderly, ethnic and religious minorities, Indigenous People and refugees. Climate change is ''likely'' to force economic transitions among the poorest groups, accelerating the switch from agriculture to other forms of wage labour, with implications for labour migration and urbanisation ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Under an inequality scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 4) the projected number of people living in extreme poverty may increase by 122 million by 2030 ( ''medium confidence'' ). {8.2, 8.3.4, 8.4.1, 8.4.5, Figure 8.6, Box 8.5, 16.5.2.3.4}

'''Both climate change and vulnerability threaten the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' This undermines progress toward various goals such as no poverty (SDG1), zero hunger (SDG2), gender equality (SDG5) and reducing inequality (SDG10), among others ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Gender inequality and discrimination are among the barriers to adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.2.1¸8.4.5} Also maladaptation can lead to additional complex and compounding future risks and threaten sustainable development ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.4.5.5, 8.2.1.7}

'''Under higher emissions scenarios and increasing climate hazards, the potential for social tipping points increases (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Even with moderate climate change [[#footnote-003|3]] people in vulnerable regions will experience a further erosion of livelihood security that can interact with humanitarian crises, such as displacement and forced migration ( ''high confidence'' ) and violent conflict, and lead to social tipping points ( ''medium confidence'' ). Social tipping points can also be coupled with environmental tipping points. {8.3, 8.4.4}

'''Vulnerable population groups in most vulnerable regions have the most urgent need for adaptation (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The most vulnerable regions are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These regions are characterised by compound challenges of high levels of poverty, a significant number of people without access to basic services, such as water and sanitation, and wealth and gender inequalities, as well as governance challenges. Areas of high human vulnerability are characterised by larger transboundary regional clusters ( ''high confidence'' ). Additional support and structures are needed to reduce the existing gaps between future adaptation needs and current capacities, and to support transitions from vulnerable livelihoods with adequate integration of the Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) systems. Greater investments are required under higher levels of global warming and of inequality (Relative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5; RCP8.5 and SSP4) ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.3, 8.4, Box 8.6}

'''The direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have worsened inequalities within societies, thereby increasing existing vulnerabilities to climate change and further limiting the ability of marginalised communities to adapt (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to increase the adverse consequences of climate change since the financial consequences have led to a shift in priorities and constrain vulnerability reduction ( ''medium confidence'' ). Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic is also influencing the capacities of governmental institutions in developing nations to support planned adaptation and poverty reduction of most vulnerable people/groups, since the crisis also means significant reductions in tax revenues ( ''high confidence'' ). {8.3, 8.4, 8.4.5.5}

'''Those with climate-sensitive livelihoods and precarious livelihood conditions are often least able to adapt, afforded limited adaptation opportunities and have little influence on decision making (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Enabling environments that support sustainable development are essential for adaptation and climate resilient development (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Enabling and supportive environments for adaptation share common governance characteristics, including multiple actors and assets, multiple centres of power at different levels and an effective vertical and horizontal integration between levels ( ''high confidence'' ). Enabling conditions can support livelihood strategies that do not undermine human well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ). {8.5.1, 8.5.2, 8.6.3, 5.13}

'''Mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change influence inequalities, poverty and livelihood security and thereby aspects of climate justice (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Improving coherence between adaptations of different social groups and sectors at different scales can reduce maladaptation, enable mitigation and advance progress towards climate resilience (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The poor typically have low carbon footprints but are disproportionately affected by adverse consequences of climate change and also lack access to adaptation options. In many cases, the poor and most vulnerable people and groups are most adversely affected by maladaptation ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Climate justice and rights-based approaches are increasingly recognised as key principles within mitigation and adaptation strategies and projects ( ''medium confidence'' ). Narrowing gender gaps can play a transformative role in pursuing climate justice ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate resilient development is therefore closely coupled with issues of climate justice. Synergies between adaptation and mitigation exist, and these can have benefits for the poor ( ''medium confidence'' ). {8.4, 8.4.5.5, 8.6}

'''There is increasing evidence that nature-based solutions (e.g., urban green infrastructure, ecosystem-based management) can provide important livelihood options and reduce poverty while also supporting mitigation and adaptation (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' However, the trade-offs over time between nature-based solutions and their dynamics are insufficiently understood. Appropriate governance, including mainstreaming and policy coherence, supported by adaptation finance that targets the poor and marginalised, is essential for adaptation and climate compatible development (medium confidence). {8.5.2, 8.6.3, 5.14}

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