Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

== Executive Summary ==

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===== Observed Impacts and Future Risks =====

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'''Climate change impacts and cascading impacts in polar regions, particularly the Arctic, are already occurring at a magnitude and pace unprecedented in recent history (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), and much faster than projected for other world regions (''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-001|1]] ''').'''

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'''The polar regions, notably the Arctic and maritime Antarctic, are experiencing impacts from climate change at magnitudes and rates that are among the highest in the world, and will become profoundly different in the near-term future (by 2050) under all warming scenarios (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' In the Arctic, accelerated sea ice loss (particularly during summer), increased permafrost thaw and extreme high temperatures have substantially impacted marine, freshwater and terrestrial sociological–ecological systems ( ''very high confidence'' ). Multiple physical, ecological and societal elements of polar regions are approaching a level of change potentially irreversible for hundreds of years, if not millennia ( ''high confidence'' ). Evidence of borealisation of terrestrial and marine systems is emerging ( ''high confidence'' ), and cascading impacts are ongoing and widespread yet challenging to quantify fully due to complexity and lags in ecological expression of change. Loss of multi-year sea ice and the occurrence of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean by the middle of this century will result in substantial range contraction, if not the disappearance of several Arctic fish, crab, bird and marine mammal species, including possible extinction of seals and polar bears in certain regions ( ''high confidence'' ). In the Arctic, permafrost thaw and snowfall decrease lead to profound hydrological changes, an overall greening of the tundra and regional browning of tundra and boreal forests ( ''high confidence'' ). {CCP6.1; Table CCP6.1; Table CCP6.2; CCP6.2.1; CCP6.2.2; Table CCP6.5 }

'''Contractions of the polar climate zones lead to distribution shifts and changes in food webs, induce declines in many species (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''') with impacts on subsistence harvests and commercial fisheries, and threaten global dependence on polar regions for substantial marine food production (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climate change has induced food web changes resulting in population declines in polar sea birds, including penguins, and marine and terrestrial mammals ( ''high confidence'' ). Globally and regionally important harvested fish and invertebrate species are also contracting ranges and declining productivity, including Pacific cod, salmon, snow and king crab in the Arctic and krill in the Antarctic ( ''medium confidence'' ), with implications for global food systems ( ''high confidence'' ). {Table CCP6.2; CCP6.2.1; CCP6.2.3; Table CCP6.3; Table CCP6.4 }

'''Loss of sea ice is rapidly expanding opportunities, but also increasing risks for shipping and other economic industries in polar regions (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Reduced sea ice enables greater access to high-latitudinal seas for industries, such as fisheries, shipping, tourism ( ''very high confidence'' ) and Arctic maritime trade and resource extraction ( ''medium confidence'' ). Navigational risks have grown due to increasingly mobile multi-year ice, poor hydrographic charting in newly open areas, and limited weather, water, ice and climate data and services ( ''high confidence'' ). Cascading risks from polar shipping growth include increased air emissions, underwater noise pollution, disruption to subsistence hunting and cultural activities in the Arctic ( ''high confidence'' ) and potential for invasive marine species and geopolitical tensions ( ''medium confidence'' ). {Table CCP6.3; CCP6.2.4; Box CCP6.1; Table CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6}

'''Increased permafrost thaw and flooding will disrupt economically important transportation and supply-chain infrastructure to remote Arctic settlements (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), increasing risks to economies, Arctic tourism and tourism to cultural heritage sites (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Arctic permafrost thaw is projected to impact most infrastructure by the middle of this century, impacting millions of people and their economies, and costing billions in damages ( ''high confidence'' ). {CCP6.2.3; CCP6.2.4; Box CCP6.1; CCP6.2.5; CCP6.3.1; Table CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6}

'''Climate change increasingly threatens many facets of Arctic livelihoods, culture, identity, health and security, particularly for Indigenous Peoples (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' It has negatively impacted mental health and increased risks of injury, food insecurity and foodborne and waterborne disease, with risks amplified for those reliant on the environment for subsistence, livelihoods and identity ( ''high confidence'' ). Permafrost thaw, sea level rise and reduced sea ice protection have already damaged or destroyed many cultural heritage sites in some Arctic regions ( ''very high confidence'' ) and are projected to continue across all Arctic regions ( ''very high confidence'' ). {CCP6.2.3; Table CCP6.3; CCP6.2.4; CCP6.2.5; CCP6.2.6; Figure CCP6.3; Box CCP6.2; CCP6.3.1; Table CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6}

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===== Climate Resilient Development =====

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'''Climate resilience for Arctic Indigenous Peoples and local communities is dependent on Indigenous self-determination in climate-adaptation action (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), inclusive, coordinated and transboundary governance (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and ecosystem-based policies (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') to effectively address climate change impacts and risks across scales and sectors, and to achieve a resilient, secure and equitable future.'''

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'''Development of robust pathways for climate resilience in the Arctic can be accelerated by adaptation strategies and governance that reflect local conditions, cultures and adaptive capacities of communities and sectors (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Effectiveness of adaptation strategies will be enhanced by accounting for the geographic, climatic, ecological and cultural uniqueness of the polar regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). Colonialism can inhibit the development of robust climate adaptation strategies, and exacerbate climate risks ( ''very high confidence'' ). Inclusive decision making in establishing climate adaptations can foster resilience, reflect the unique environmental, cultural and economic imperatives of the region and support both market-based and sharing economies ( ''high confidence'' ). {Box CCP6.2; Table CCP6.6; CCP6.3.2; CCP6.4 }

'''Indigenous self-determination in managing climate change impacts, adaptations and solutions can accelerate effective robust climate resilient development pathways in the Arctic (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Arctic Indigenous self-determination in decision making can establish robust climate resilience, especially in Indigenous communities, incorporating locally derived definitions of social and economic success, culturally legitimate institutions of government, strategic visioning and thinking and public-spirited, nation-building leadership (very high confidence). {Box CCP6.2; CCP6.3; CCP6.4 }

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===== Adaptation =====

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'''Adaptations to manage climate change impacts and risks in polar regions are urgently needed (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), but implementation is uneven (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), limits to adaptation are high and maladaptation is probable (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').'''

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'''Polar zones will continue to contract and diminish in extent under climate change, and local adaptations will be insufficient to achieve long-term resilience of polar systems (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The pace and extent of change in polar regions is challenging the ability of social and natural systems to adapt ( ''medium confidence'' ). Management of different sectors with specific measures to reduce the potential for compounding risks and the development of climate-sensitive strategies would support the resilience of polar systems. Resilience of natural systems can be enhanced through strategies that maintain ecological connectivity over large spatial scales and reduce the particular impact of local extreme events on biodiversity ( ''medium confidence'' ). {CCP6.2; Box CCP6.1; CCP6.3; Table CCP6.5; Table CCP6.6; Figure CCP6.6; CCP6.4 }

'''Timing, direction and scale of polar climate change impacts differ sub-regionally and will require adaptation strategies that are flexible, equitable, inclusive and integrated across sectors and governance arrangements to effectively reduce risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Governance around climate change planning, preparation and response has been limited in scope, and has often not considered interacting effects of climate change with other risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Reactive management strategies will not succeed in reducing risks in polar regions given the rapid change and increasing potential for extreme events ( ''high confidence'' ). Greater inclusivity of stakeholders and communities, along with using diverse sources of information, including Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge, can benefit robust planning and decision making, and uptake of adaptations ( ''high confidence'' ). Effectiveness in preparing for and adapting to climate risks can benefit from improved climate, weather and ice forecasting services, tools for integrating climate change data and different types of knowledge into management processes and enhanced polar search, rescue and emergency response capabilities ( ''high confidence'' ). {CCP6.2.3.1; CCP6.3; Table CCP6.6; CCP6.4; Box CCP6.2; Box CCP6.3; Figure CCP6.8}

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