Editing IPCC:AR6/SYR/SPM (section)

=== Synergies and Trade-Offs with Sustainable Development ===

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'''C.4 Accelerated and equitable action in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts is critical to sustainable development. Mitigation and adaptation actions have more synergies than trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals. Synergies and trade-offs depend on context and scale of implementation. (''high confidence'') Links to longer report3.4, 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.9, Figure 4.5'''
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C.4.1 Mitigation efforts embedded within the wider development context can increase the pace, depth and breadth of emission reductions ''(medium confidence)'' . Countries at all stages of economic development seek to improve the well-being of people, and their development priorities reflect different starting points and contexts. Different contexts include but are not limited to social, economic, environmental, cultural, political circumstances, resource endowment, capabilities, international environment, and prior development ''(high confidence)'' . In regions with high dependency on fossil fuels for, among other things, revenue and employment generation, mitigating risk for sustainable development requires policies that promote economic and energy sector diversification and considerations of just transitions principles, processes and practices ''(high confidence)'' . Eradicating extreme poverty, energy poverty, and providing decent living standards in low-emitting countries / regions in the context of achieving sustainable development objectives, in the near term, can be achieved without significant global emissions growth ''(high confidence). Links to longer report 4.4, 4.6, Annex I: Glossary''

C.4.2 Many mitigation and adaptation actions have multiple synergies with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and sustainable development generally, but some actions can also have trade-offs. Potential synergies with SDGs exceed potential trade-offs; synergies and trade-offs depend on the pace and magnitude of change and the development context including inequalities with consideration of climate justice. Trade-offs can be evaluated and minimised by giving emphasis to capacity building, finance, governance, technology transfer, investments, development, context specific gender-based and other social equity considerations with meaningful participation of Indigenous Peoples, local communities and vulnerable populations. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 3.4.1, 4.6, Figure 4.5, 4.9''

C.4.3 Implementing both mitigation and adaptation actions together and taking trade-offs into account supports co-benefits and synergies for human health and well-being. For example, improved access to clean energy sources and technologies generates health benefits especially for women and children; electrification combined with low-GHG energy, and shifts to active mobility and public transport can enhance air quality, health, employment, and can elicit energy security and deliver equity. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.2, 4.5.3, 4.5.5, 4.6, 4.9''

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'''C.5 Prioritising equity, climate justice, social justice, inclusion and just transition processes can enable adaptation and ambitious mitigation actions and climate resilient development. Adaptation outcomes are enhanced by increased support to regions and people with the highest vulnerability to climatic hazards. Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs improves resilience. Many options are available for reducing emission-intensive consumption, including through behavioural and lifestyle changes, with co-benefits for societal well-being. '''''(high confidence)''''' Links to longer report 4.4, 4.5'''
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C.5.1 Equity remains a central element in the UN climate regime, notwithstanding shifts in differentiation between states over time and challenges in assessing fair shares. Ambitious mitigation pathways imply large and sometimes disruptive changes in economic structure, with significant distributional consequences, within and between countries. Distributional consequences within and between countries include shifting of income and employment during the transition from high- to low-emissions activities. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.4''

C.5.2 Adaptation and mitigation actions, that prioritise equity, social justice, climate justice, rights-based approaches, and inclusivity, lead to more sustainable outcomes, reduce trade-offs, support transformative change and advance climate resilient development. Redistributive policies across sectors and regions that shield the poor and vulnerable, social safety nets, equity, inclusion and just transitions, at all scales can enable deeper societal ambitions and resolve trade-offs with sustainable development goals. Attention to equity and broad and meaningful participation of all relevant actors in decision making at all scales can build social trust which builds on equitable sharing of benefits and burdens of mitigation that deepen and widen support for transformative changes. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.4''

C.5.3 Regions and people (3.3 to 3.6 billion in number) with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic hazards (see A.2.2). Adaptation outcomes for the most vulnerable within and across countries and regions are enhanced through approaches focusing on equity, inclusivity and rights-based approaches. Vulnerability is exacerbated by inequity and marginalisation linked to e.g., gender, ethnicity, low incomes, informal settlements, disability, age, and historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Integrating climate adaptation into social protection programs, including cash transfers and public works programs, is highly feasible and increases resilience to climate change, especially when supported by basic services and infrastructure. The greatest gains in well-being in urban areas can be achieved by prioritising access to finance to reduce climate risk for low-income and marginalised communities including people living in informal settlements. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.4, 4.5.3, 4.5.5, 4.5.6''

C.5.4 The design of regulatory instruments and economic instruments and consumption-based approaches, can advance equity. Individuals with high socio-economic status contribute disproportionately to emissions, and have the highest potential for emissions reductions. Many options are available for reducing emission-intensive consumption while improving societal well-being. Socio-cultural options, behaviour and lifestyle changes supported by policies, infrastructure, and technology can help end-users shift to low-emissions-intensive consumption, with multiple co-benefits. A substantial share of the population in low-emitting countries lack access to modern energy services. Technology development, transfer, capacity building and financing can support developing countries/ regions leapfrogging or transitioning to low-emissions transport systems thereby providing multiple co-benefits. Climate resilient development is advanced when actors work in equitable, just and inclusive ways to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, toward equitable and just outcomes. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 2.1, 4.4''

'''''Governance and Policies'''''

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'''C.6 Effective climate action is enabled by political commitment, well-aligned multilevel governance, institutional frameworks, laws, policies and strategies and enhanced access to finance and technology. Clear goals, coordination across multiple policy domains, and inclusive governance processes facilitate effective climate action. Regulatory and economic instruments can support deep emissions reductions and climate resilience if scaled up and applied widely. Climate resilient development benefits from drawing on diverse knowledge. '''''(high confidence)''''' Links to longer report 2.2, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7'''
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C.6.1 Effective climate governance enables mitigation and adaptation. Effective governance provides overall direction on setting targets and priorities and mainstreaming climate action across policy domains and levels, based on national circumstances and in the context of international cooperation. It enhances monitoring and evaluation and regulatory certainty, prioritising inclusive, transparent and equitable decision-making, and improves access to finance and technology (see C.7). ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 2.2.2, 4.7''

C.6.2 Effective local, municipal, national and subnational institutions build consensus for climate action among diverse interests, enable coordination and inform strategy setting but require adequate institutional capacity. Policy support is influenced by actors in civil society, including businesses, youth, women, labour, media, Indigenous Peoples, and local communities. Effectiveness is enhanced by political commitment and partnerships between different groups in society. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 2.2, 4.7''

C.6.3 Effective multilevel govence for mitigation, adaptation, risk management, and climate resilient development is enabled by inclusive decision processes that prioritise equity and justice in planning and implementation, allocation of appropriate resources, institutional review, and monitoring and evaluation. Vulnerabilities and climate risks are often reduced through carefully designed and implemented laws, policies, participatory processes, and interventions that address context specific inequities such as those based on gender, ethnicity, disability, age, location and income. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.4, 4.7''

C.6.4 Regulatory and economic instruments could support deep emissions reductions if scaled up and applied more widely ''(high confidence)'' . Scaling up and enhancing the use of regulatory instruments can improve mitigation outcomes in sectoral applications, consistent with national circumstances ''(high confidence)'' . Where implemented, carbon pricing instruments have incentivized low-cost emissions reduction measures but have been less effective, on their own and at prevailing prices during the assessment period, to promote higher-cost measures necessary for further reductions ''(medium confidence)'' . Equity and distributional impacts of such carbon pricing instruments, e.g., carbon taxes and emissions trading, can be addressed by using revenue to support low-income households, among other approaches. Removing fossil fuel subsidies would reduce emissions [[#footnote-003|54]] and yield benefits such as improved public revenue, macroeconomic and sustainability performance; subsidy removal can have adverse distributional impacts, especially on the most economically vulnerable groups which, in some cases can be mitigated by measures such as redistributing revenue saved, all of which depend on national circumstances ''(high confidence).'' Economy-wide policy packages, such as public spending commitments, pricing reforms, can meet short-term economic goals while reducing emissions and shifting development pathways towards sustainability ''(medium confidence)'' . Effective policy packages would be comprehensive, consistent, balanced across objectives, and tailored to national circumstances ''(high confidence).'' Links to longer report 2.2.2, 4.7

C.6.5 Drawing on diverse knowledges and cultural values, meaningful participation and inclusive engagement processes—including Indigenous Knowledge, local knowledge, and scientific knowledge—facilitates climate resilient development, builds capacity and allows locally appropriate and socially acceptable solutions. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.4, 4.5.6, 4.7''

'''''Finance, Technology and International Cooperation'''''

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'''C.7 Finance, technology and international cooperation are critical enablers for accelerated climate action. If climate goals are to be achieved, both adaptation and mitigation financing would need to increase many-fold. There is sufficient global capital to close the global investment gaps but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action. Enhancing technology innovation systems is key to accelerate the widespread adoption of technologies and practices. Enhancing international cooperation is possible through multiple channels. '''''(high confidence)''''' Links to longer report 2.3, 4.8'''
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C.7.1 Improved availability of and access to finance [[#footnote-002|55]] would enable accelerated climate action ''(very high confidence)'' . Addressing needs and gaps and broadening equitable access to domestic and international finance, when combined with other supportive actions, can act as a catalyst for accelerating adaptation and mitigation, and enabling climate resilient development ''(high confidence)'' . If climate goals are to be achieved, and to address rising risks and accelerate investments in emissions reductions, both adaptation and mitigation finance would need to increase many-fold ''(high confidence). Links to longer report 4.8.1''

C.7.2 Increased access to finance can build capacity and address soft limits to adaptation and avert rising risks, especially for developing countries, vulnerable groups, regions and sectors ''(high confidence)'' . Public finance is an important enabler of adaptation and mitigation, and can also leverage private finance ''(high confidence)'' . Average annual modelled mitigation investment requirements for 2020 to 2030 in scenarios that limit warming to 2°C or 1.5°C are a factor of three to six greater than current levels [[#footnote-001|56]] , and total mitigation investments (public, private, domestic and international) would need to increase across all sectors and regions ''(medium confidence).'' Even if extensive global mitigation efforts are implemented, there will be a need for financial, technical, and human resources for adaptation ''(high confidence). Links to longer report 4.3, 4.8.1''

C.7.3 There is sufficient global capital and liquidity to close global investment gaps, given the size of the global financial system, but there are barriers to redirect capital to climate action both within and outside the global financial sector and in the context of economic vulnerabilities and indebtedness facing developing countries. Reducing financing barriers for scaling up financial flows would require clear signalling and support by governments, including a stronger alignment of public finances in order to lower real and perceived regulatory, cost and market barriers and risks and improving the risk-return profile of investments. At the same time, depending on national contexts, financial actors, including investors, financial intermediaries, central banks and financial regulators can shift the systemic underpricing of climate-related risks, and reduce sectoral and regional mismatches between available capital and investment needs. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.8.1''

C.7.4 Tracked financial flows fall short of the levels needed for adaptation and to achieve mitigation goals across all sectors and regions. These gaps create many opportunities and the challenge of closing gaps is largest in developing countries. Accelerated financial support for developing countries from developed countries and other sources is a critical enabler to enhance adaptation and mitigation actions and address inequities in access to finance, including its costs, terms and conditions, and economic vulnerability to climate change for developing countries. Scaled-up public grants for mitigation and adaptation funding for vulnerable regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, would be cost-effective and have high social returns in terms of access to basic energy. Options for scaling up mitigation in developing countries include: increased levels of public finance and publicly mobilised private finance flows from developed to developing countries in the context of the USD 100 billion-a-year goal; increased use of public guarantees to reduce risks and leverage private flows at lower cost; local capital markets development; and building greater trust in international cooperation processes. A coordinated effort to make the post-pandemic recovery sustainable over the longer-term can accelerate climate action, including in developing regions and countries facing high debt costs, debt distress and macroeconomic uncertainty. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.8.1''

C.7.5 Enhancing technology innovation systems can provide opportunities to lower emissions growth, create social and environmental co-benefits, and achieve other SDGs. Policy packages tailored to national contexts and technological characteristics have been effective in supporting low-emission innovation and technology diffusion. Public policies can support training and R&amp;D, complemented by both regulatory and market-based instruments that create incentives and market opportunities. Technological innovation can have trade-offs such as new and greater environmental impacts, social inequalities, overdependence on foreign knowledge and providers, distributional impacts and rebound effects [[#footnote-000|57]] , requiring appropriate governance and policies to enhance potential and reduce trade-offs. Innovation and adoption of low-emission technologies lags in most developing countries, particularly least developed ones, due in part to weaker enabling conditions, including limited finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity building. ''(high confidence) Links to longer report 4.8.3''

C.7.6 International cooperation is a critical enabler for achieving ambitious climate change mitigation, adaptation, and climate resilient development ''(high confidence)'' . Climate resilient development is enabled by increased international cooperation including mobilising and enhancing access to finance, particularly for developing countries, vulnerable regions, sectors and groups and aligning finance flows for climate action to be consistent with ambition levels and funding needs ''(high confidence)'' . Enhancing international cooperation on finance, technology and capacity building can enable greater ambition and can act as a catalyst for accelerating mitigation and adaptation, and shifting development pathways towards sustainability ''(high confidence)'' . This includes support to NDCs and accelerating technology development and deployment ''(high confidence)'' . Transnational partnerships can stimulate policy development, technology diffusion, adaptation and mitigation, though uncertainties remain over their costs, feasibility and effectiveness ''(medium confidence)'' . International environmental and sectoral agreements, institutions and initiatives are helping, and in some cases may help, to stimulate low GHG emissions investments and reduce emissions ''(medium confidence). Links to longer report 2.2.2, 4.8.2''

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'''[[#footnote-056-backlink|1]]''' '''1''' The three Working Group contributions to AR6 are: AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis; AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability; and AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Their assessments cover scientific literature accepted for publication respectively by 31 January 2021, 1 September 2021 and 11 October 2021.

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'''[[#footnote-055-backlink|2]]''' '''2''' The three Special Reports are: Global Warming of 1.5°C (2018): an IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (SR1.5); Climate Change and Land (2019): an IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL); and The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (2019) (SROCC). The Special Reports cover scientific literature accepted for publication respectively by 15 May 2018, 7 April 2019 and 15 May 2019.

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'''[[#footnote-054-backlink|3]]''' '''3''' In this report, the near term is defined as the period until 2040. The long term is defined as the period beyond 2040.

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[[#footnote-053-backlink|4]] Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. The IPCC calibrated language uses five qualifiers to express a level of confidence: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, for example, ''medium confidence'' . The following terms are used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, more likely than not &gt;50–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%; more likely than not &gt;50–100%; and extremely unlikely 0–5%) are also used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., ''very likely'' . This is consistent with AR5 and the other AR6 Reports.

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[[#footnote-052-backlink|5]] 5 Ranges given throughout the SPM represent ''very likely'' ranges (5–95% range) unless otherwise stated.

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[[#footnote-051-backlink|6]] The estimated increase in global surface temperature since AR5 is principally due to further warming since 2003-2012 (+0.19 [0.16 to 0.22] °C). Additionally, methodological advances and new datasets have provided a more complete spatial representation of changes in surface temperature, including in the Arctic. These and other improvements have also increased the estimate of global surface temperature change by approximately 0.1°C, but this increase does not represent additional physical warming since AR5.

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[[#footnote-050-backlink|7]] The period distinction with A.1.1 arises because the attribution studies consider this slightly earlier period. The observed warming to 2010-2019 is 1.06 [0.88 to 1.21] °C.

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[[#footnote-049-backlink|8]] Contributions from emissions to the 2010-2019 warming relative to 1850-1900 assessed from radiative forcing studies are: CO 2 0.8 [0.5 to 1.2] °C; methane 0.5 [0.3 to 0.8] °C; nitrous oxide 0.1 [0.0 to 0.2] °C and fluorinated gases 0.1 [0.0 to 0.2] °C. ''{2.1.1}''

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[[#footnote-048-backlink|9]] GHG emission metrics are used to express emissions of different greenhouse gases in a common unit. Aggregated GHG emissions in this report are stated in CO '''2''' -equivalents (CO '''2''' -eq) using the Global Warming Potential with a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100) with values based on the contribution of Working Group I to the AR6. The AR6 WGI and WGIII reports contain updated emission metric values, evaluations of different metrics with regard to mitigation objectives, and assess new approaches to aggregating gases. The choice of metric depends on the purpose of the analysis and all GHG emission metrics have limitations and uncertainties, given that they simplify the complexity of the physical climate system and its response to past and future GHG emissions. ''{2.1.1}''

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[[#footnote-047-backlink|10]] GHG emission levels are rounded to two significant digits; as a consequence, small differences in sums due to rounding may occur. ''{2.1.1}''

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[[#footnote-046-backlink|11]] Territorial emissions.

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[[#footnote-045-backlink|12]] Acute food insecurity can occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking determinants of food security and nutrition, and is used to assess the need for humanitarian action. ''{2.1}''

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[[#footnote-044-backlink|13]] In this report, the term ‘losses and damages’ refer to adverse observed impacts and/or projected risks and can be economic and/or non-economic (see Annex I: Glossary).

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[[#footnote-043-backlink|14]] Slow-onset events are described among the climatic-impact drivers of the AR6 WGI and refer to the risks and impacts associated with e.g., increasing temperature means, desertification, decreasing precipitation, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification, sea level rise and salinization. ''{2.1.2}''

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[[#footnote-042-backlink|15]] Effectiveness refers here to the extent to which an adaptation option is anticipated or observed to reduce climate-related risk. ''{2.2.3}''

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[[#footnote-041-backlink|16]] See Annex I: Glossary. ''{2.2.3}''

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[[#footnote-040-backlink|17]] Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is recognized internationally under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD14/5). A related concept is Nature-based Solutions (NbS), see Annex I: Glossary.

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[[#footnote-039-backlink|18]] Incremental adaptations to change in climate are understood as extensions of actions and behaviours that already reduce the losses or enhance the benefits of natural variations in extreme weather/climate events. ''{2.3.2}''

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[[#footnote-038-backlink|19]] In the literature, the terms pathways and scenarios are used interchangeably, with the former more frequently used in relation to climate goals. WGI primarily used the term scenarios and WGIII mostly used the term modelled emission and mitigation pathways. The SYR primarily uses scenarios when referring to WGI and modelled emission and mitigation pathways when referring to WGIII.

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[[#footnote-037-backlink|20]] Around half of all modelled global emission pathways assume cost-effective approaches that rely on least-cost mitigation/abatement options globally. The other half looks at existing policies and regionally and sectorally differentiated actions.

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[[#footnote-036-backlink|21]] SSP-based scenarios are referred to as SSPx-y, where ‘SSPx’ refers to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway describing the socioeconomic trends underlying the scenarios, and ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square metre, or W m -2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100. ''{Cross-Section Box.2}''

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[[#footnote-035-backlink|22]] Very high emissions scenarios have become ''less likely'' but cannot be ruled out. Warming levels &gt;4°C may result from very high emissions scenarios, but can also occur from lower emission scenarios if climate sensitivity or carbon cycle feedbacks are higher than the best estimate. ''{3.1.1}''

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[[#footnote-034-backlink|23]] RCP-based scenarios are referred to as RCPy, where ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square metre, or W m -2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100. The SSP scenarios cover a broader range of greenhouse gas and air pollutant futures than the RCPs. They are similar but not identical, with differences in concentration trajectories. The overall effective radiative forcing tends to be higher for the SSPs compared to the RCPs with the same label ''(medium confidence). {Cross-Section Box.2}''

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[[#footnote-033-backlink|24]] At least 1.8 GtCO 2 -eq yr –1 can be accounted for by aggregating separate estimates for the effects of economic and regulatory instruments. Growing numbers of laws and executive orders have impacted global emissions and were estimated to result in 5.9 GtCO 2 -eq yr –1 less emissions in 2016 than they otherwise would have been. ''(medium confidence). {2.2.2}''

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[[#footnote-032-backlink|25]] Reductions were linked to energy supply decarbonisation, energy efficiency gains, and energy demand reduction, which resulted from both policies and changes in economic structure ''(high confidence).'' ''{2.2.2}''

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[[#footnote-031-backlink|26]] Due to the literature cutoff date of WGIII, the additional NDCs submitted after 11 October 2021 are not assessed here. ''{Footnote 32 in the Longer Report}''

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[[#footnote-030-backlink|27]] Projected 2030 GHG emissions are 50 (47–55) GtCO 2 -eq if all conditional NDC elements are taken into account. Without conditional elements, the global emissions are projected to be approximately similar to modelled 2019 levels at 53 (50–57) GtCO 2 -eq. ''{2.3.1, Table 2.2}''

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[[#footnote-029-backlink|28]] Global warming (see Annex I: Glossary) is here reported as running 20-year averages, unless stated otherwise, relative to 1850-1900. Global surface temperature in any single year can vary above or below the long-term human-caused trend, due to natural variability. The internal variability of global surface temperature in a single year is estimated to be about ±0.25°C (5–95% range, ''high confidence'' ). The occurrence of individual years with global surface temperature change above a certain level does not imply that this global warming level has been reached. ''{4.3, Cross-Section Box.2}''

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[[#footnote-028-backlink|29]] Median five-year interval at which a 1.5°C global warming level is reached (50% probability) in categories of modelled pathways considered in WGIII is 2030-2035. By 2030, global surface temperature in any individual year could exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850-1900 with a probability between 40% and 60%, across the five scenarios assessed in WGI ''(medium confidence)'' . In all scenarios considered in WGI except the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), the midpoint of the first 20-year running average period during which the assessed average global surface temperature change reaches 1.5°C lies in the first half of the 2030s. In the very high GHG emissions scenario, the midpoint is in the late 2020s. ''{3.1.1, 3.3.1, 4.3} (Box SPM.1)''

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[[#footnote-027-backlink|30]] The best estimates [and ''very likely'' ranges] for the different scenarios are: 1.4 [1.0 to 1.8 ] °C (SSP1-1.9); 1.8 [1.3 to 2.4] °C (SSP1-2.6); 2.7 [2.1 to 3.5] °C (SSP2-4.5)); 3.6 [2.8 to 4.6] °C (SSP3-7.0); and 4.4 [3.3 to 5.7 ] °C (SSP5-8.5). ''{3.1.1} (Box SPM.1)''

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[[#footnote-026-backlink|31]] Assessed future changes in global surface temperature have been constructed, for the first time, by combining multi-model projections with observational constraints and the assessed equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. The uncertainty range is narrower than in the AR5 thanks to improved knowledge of climate processes, paleoclimate evidence and model-based emergent constraints. ''{3.1.1}''

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[[#footnote-025-backlink|32]] See Annex I: Glossary. Natural variability includes natural drivers and internal variability. The main internal variability phenomena include El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Variability and Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability. ''{4.3}''

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[[#footnote-024-backlink|33]] Based on additional scenarios.

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[[#footnote-023-backlink|34]] Permafrost, seasonal snow cover, glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, and Arctic Sea ice.

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[[#footnote-022-backlink|35]] Based on 2500-year reconstructions, eruptions with a radiative forcing more negative than –1 W m -2 , related to the radiative effect of volcanic stratospheric aerosols in the literature assessed in this report, occur on average twice per century. ''{4.3}''

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[[#footnote-021-backlink|36]] In all assessed regions.

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[[#footnote-020-backlink|37]] Undetectable risk level indicates no associated impacts are detectable and attributable to climate change; moderate risk indicates associated impacts are both detectable and attributable to climate change with at least ''medium confidence'' , also accounting for the other specific criteria for key risks; high risk indicates severe and widespread impacts that are judged to be high on one or more criteria for assessing key risks; and very high risk level indicates very high risk of severe impacts and the presence of significant irreversibility or the persistence of climate-related hazards, combined with limited ability to adapt due to the nature of the hazard or impacts/risks. ''{3.1.2}''

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[[#footnote-019-backlink|38]] The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about accrual of risk for five broad categories. RFC1: Unique and threatened systems: ecological and human systems that have restricted geographic ranges constrained by climate-related conditions and have high endemism or other distinctive properties. RFC2: Extreme weather events: risks/impacts to human health, livelihoods, assets and ecosystems from extreme weather events. RFC3: Distribution of impacts: risks/impacts that disproportionately affect particular groups due to uneven distribution of physical climate change hazards, exposure or vulnerability. RFC4: Global aggregate impacts: impacts to socio-ecological systems that can be aggregated globally into a single metric. RFC5: Large-scale singular events: relatively large, abrupt and sometimes irreversible changes in systems caused by global warming. See also Annex I: Glossary. ''{3.1.2, Cross-Section Box.2}''

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'''[[#footnote-018-backlink|39]]''' Net zero GHG emissions defined by the 100-year global warming potential. See footnote 9.

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[[#footnote-017-backlink|40]] Global databases make different choices about which emissions and removals occurring on land are considered anthropogenic. Most countries report their anthropogenic land CO '''2''' fluxes including fluxes due to human-caused environmental change (e.g., CO '''2''' fertilisation) on ‘managed’ land in their national GHG inventories. Using emissions estimates based on these inventories, the remaining carbon budgets must be correspondingly reduced. ''{3.3.1}''

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[[#footnote-016-backlink|41]] For example, remaining carbon budgets could be 300 or 600 GtCO '''2''' for 1.5°C (50%), respectively for high and low non-CO '''2''' emissions, compared to 500 GtCO '''2''' in the central case. ''{3.3.1}''

<div id="footnote-015" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-015-backlink|42]] Abatement here refers to human interventions that reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that are released from fossil fuel infrastructure to the atmosphere.

<div id="footnote-014" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-014-backlink|43]] Ibid.

<div id="footnote-013" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-013-backlink|44]] WGI provides carbon budgets that are in line with limiting global warming to temperature limits with different likelihoods, such as 50%, 67% or 83%. ''{3.3.1}''

<div id="footnote-012" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-012-backlink|45]] Uncertainties for total carbon budgets have not been assessed and could affect the specific calculated fractions.

<div id="footnote-011" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-011-backlink|46]] Ibid.

<div id="footnote-010" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-010-backlink|47]] CCS is an option to reduce emissions from large-scale fossil-based energy and industry sources provided geological storage is available. When CO 2 is captured directly from the atmosphere (DACCS), or from biomass (BECCS), CCS provides the storage component of these CDR methods. CO 2 capture and subsurface injection is a mature technology for gas processing and enhanced oil recovery. In contrast to the oil and gas sector, CCS is less mature in the power sector, as well as in cement and chemicals production, where it is a critical mitigation option. The technical geological storage capacity is estimated to be on the order of 1000 GtCO 2 , which is more than the CO 2 storage requirements through 2100 to limit global warming to 1.5°C, although the regional availability of geological storage could be a limiting factor. If the geological storage site is appropriately selected and managed, it is estimated that the CO 2 can be permanently isolated from the atmosphere. Implementation of CCS currently faces technological, economic, institutional, ecological-environmental and socio-cultural barriers. Currently, global rates of CCS deployment are far below those in modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C. Enabling conditions such as policy instruments, greater public support and technological innovation could reduce these barriers. ''(high confidence) {3.3.3}''

<div id="footnote-009" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-009-backlink|48]] The impacts, risks, and co-benefits of CDR deployment for ecosystems, biodiversity and people will be highly variable depending on the method, site-specific context, implementation and scale ''(high confidence).''

<div id="footnote-008" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-008-backlink|49]] The southern part of Mexico is included in the climactic subregion South Central America (SCA) for WGI. Mexico is assessed as part of North America for WGII. The climate change literature for the SCA region occasionally includes Mexico, and in those cases WGII assessment makes reference to Latin America. Mexico is considered part of Latin America and the Caribbean for WGIII.

<div id="footnote-007" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-007-backlink|50]] The evidence is too limited to make a similar robust conclusion for limiting warming to 1.5°C. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C would increase the costs of mitigation, but also increase the benefits in terms of reduced impacts and related risks, and reduced adaptation needs ''(high confidence)'' .

<div id="footnote-006" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-006-backlink|51]] In this context, ‘unabated fossil fuels’ refers to fossil fuels produced and used without interventions that substantially reduce the amount of GHG emitted throughout the life cycle; for example, capturing 90% or more CO 2 from power plants, or 50–80% of fugitive methane emissions from energy supply.

<div id="footnote-005" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-005-backlink|52]] A set of measures and daily practices that avoid demand for energy, materials, land, and water while delivering human well-being for all within planetary boundaries. ''{4.5.3}''

<div id="footnote-004" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-004-backlink|53]] ‘Sustainable healthy diets’ promote all dimensions of individuals’ health and well-being; have low environmental pressure and impact; are accessible, affordable, safe and equitable; and are culturally acceptable, as described in FAO and WHO. The related concept of ‘balanced diets’ refers to diets that feature plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes, fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and animal-sourced food produced in resilient, sustainable and low-GHG emission systems, as described in SRCCL.

<div id="footnote-003" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-003-backlink|54]] Fossil fuel subsidy removal is projected by various studies to reduce global CO 2 emission by 1 to 4%, and GHG emissions by up to 10% by 2030, varying across regions ''(medium confidence).''

<div id="footnote-002" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-002-backlink|55]] Finance originates from diverse sources: public or private, local, national or international, bilateral or multilateral, and alternative sources. It can take the form of grants, technical assistance, loans (concessional and non-concessional), bonds, equity, risk insurance and financial guarantees (of different types).

<div id="footnote-001" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-001-backlink|56]] These estimates rely on scenario assumptions.

<div id="footnote-000" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-000-backlin%20%20k|57]] Leading to lower net emission reductions or even emission increases.