Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.3.1.3 Adaptation ====

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Managing climate change risks to ecosystems is primarily based on reducing the impact of other anthropogenic pressures, including invasive species, and facilitating natural adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). This approach is most feasible within protected areas on public, private and Indigenous land and sea ( [[#Bellard--2014|Bellard et al., 2014]] ; [[#Liu--2020|Liu et al., 2020]] ) but is also applicable elsewhere ( [[#Barnes--2015|Barnes et al., 2015]] ). Effective strategies promote ecosystem resilience by changing unsustainable land uses and management practices, increasing habitat connectivity, controlling introduced species, restoring habitats, implementing appropriate fire management, integrated risk assessment and adaptation planning (B. Frame et al., 2018; [[#Lindenmayer--2020|Lindenmayer et al., 2020]] ; [[#Macinnis-Ng--2021|Macinnis-Ng et al., 2021]] ). Complementary approaches include ''ex situ'' seed banks ( [[#Morrison--2013|Morrison and Pickering, 2013]] ; [[#Christie--2020|Christie et al., 2020]] ).

Best practice conservation adaptation planning is informed by data on key habitats, including refugia, and restoration that facilitates species movements and employs adaptive pathways ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Guerin--2013|Guerin and Lowe, 2013]] ; [[#Reside--2014|Reside et al., 2014]] ; [[#Shoo--2014|Shoo et al., 2014]] ; [[#Keppel--2015|Keppel et al., 2015]] ; [[#Andrew--2017|Andrew and Warrener, 2017]] ; [[#Baumgartner--2018|Baumgartner et al., 2018]] ; [[#Harris--2018|Harris et al., 2018]] ; [[#Jacobs--2018a|Jacobs et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Das--2019|Das et al., 2019]] ; [[#Walker--2019|Walker et al., 2019]] ; [[#Molloy--2020|Molloy et al., 2020]] ). Landscape planning ( [[#Bond--2014|Bond et al., 2014]] ; [[#McCormack--2018|McCormack, 2018]] ) helps reduce habitat loss, facilitates species dispersal and gene flow ( [[#McLean--2014|McLean et al., 2014]] ; [[#Shoo--2014|Shoo et al., 2014]] ; [[#Lowe--2015|Lowe et al., 2015]] ; [[#Harris--2018|Harris et al., 2018]] ; [[#McCormack--2018|McCormack, 2018]] ) and allows for new ecological opportunities ( [[#Norman--2016|Norman and Christidis, 2016]] ). Coastal squeeze is a threat to freshwater wetlands and requires planning for the potential inland shift ( [[#Grieger--2019|Grieger et al., 2019]] ). Adaptations that maintain critical volumes and periodicity of environmental flows will help protect freshwater biodiversity (Box 11.3) ( [[#Yen--2013|Yen et al., 2013]] ; [[#Barnett--2015|Barnett et al., 2015]] ; [[#Wang--2018b|Wang et al., 2018b]] ).

Adaptation planning for ecosystems and species requires monitoring and evaluation to identify trigger points and thresholds for new actions to be implemented ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Tanner-McAllister--2017|Tanner-McAllister et al., 2017]] ; [[#Williams--2020|Williams et al., 2020]] ). Best planning practice includes keeping options open ( [[#Barnett--2015|Barnett et al., 2015]] ; [[#Dunlop--2016|Dunlop et al., 2016]] ; [[#Finlayson--2017|Finlayson et al., 2017]] ) and updating management plans in light of new information. New insights are emerging into how species’ natural adaptive capacities can inform adaptation planning ( [[#Llewelyn--2016|Llewelyn et al., 2016]] ; [[#Steane--2017|Steane et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hoeppner--2019|Hoeppner and Hughes, 2019]] ). Physiological limits to adaptation in some species are being identified ( [[#Barnett--2015|Barnett et al., 2015]] ; [[#Sorensen--2016|Sorensen et al., 2016]] ), and where natural responses are not feasible, human-assisted translocations may be warranted ( [[#Becker--2013|Becker et al., 2013]] ; [[#Chauvenet--2013|Chauvenet et al., 2013]] ; [[#Innes--2019|Innes et al., 2019]] ) for some species ( [[#Ofori--2017a|Ofori et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Ofori--2017b|Ofori et al., 2017b]] ). Legal reform may be needed to better enable climate adaptation for biodiversity conservation that recognises species’ natural adjustments to their distributions and the difficulties encountered in predicting the consequences for ecological interactions and ecosystem services ( [[#McCormack--2018|McCormack, 2018]] ; [[#McDonald--2019|McDonald et al., 2019]] ).

Adaptation research priorities include understanding of the interactions and cumulative impacts of existing stressors and climate change and the implications for managing ecosystems and natural resources ( [[#Williams--2020|Williams et al., 2020]] ). For Australia, research on implementation strategies for conservation and managing threats, stress and natural assets is a priority ( [[#Williams--2020|Williams et al., 2020]] ). For New Zealand, understanding how terrestrial ecosystems and species respond to climate change is a priority, and where existing stressors are affecting freshwater quantity and quality, ''in situ'' monitoring to detect and evaluate projections of climate change impacts on biodiversity and a national data repository are lacking ( [[#MfE--2020a|MfE, 2020a]] ). The projected increase in invasive species indicates the importance of a step-up in pest management efforts to ensure native species persistence as invasive species spread from climate change ( [[#Firn--2015|Firn et al., 2015]] ). There remains a gap between the knowledge generated, potential adaptation strategies and their incorporation into conservation instruments ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Graham--2019|Graham et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hoeppner--2019|Hoeppner and Hughes, 2019]] ), though there is increasing recognition of the need to improve governance and management structures for their implementation ( [[#Christie--2020|Christie et al., 2020]] ).

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'''Box 11.1 | Escalating Impacts and Risks of Wildfire'''
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Fire activity depends on weather, ignition sources, land management practices and fuel flammability, availability and continuity ( [[#Bradstock--2014|Bradstock et al., 2014]] ). Increased fire activity in southeast Australia associated with climate change has been observed since 1950 ( [[#Abram--2021|Abram et al., 2021]] ), though trends vary regionally ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Bradstock--2014|Bradstock et al., 2014]] ). In New Zealand, there has been an increased frequency of major wildfires in plantations ( [[#FENZ--2018|FENZ, 2018]] ) and at the rural–urban interface ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Pearce--2018|Pearce, 2018]] ). In northern Australia, increased wet season rainfall ( [[#Gallego--2017|Gallego et al., 2017]] ) has increased dry season fuel loads ( [[#Harris--2008|Harris et al., 2008]] ).

In Australia, the frequency and severity of dangerous fire weather conditions is increasing, with partial attribution to climate change ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Dowdy--2018|Dowdy and Pepler, 2018]] ; [[#Abram--2021|Abram et al., 2021]] ) (11.2.1, Figure Box 11.1.1), especially in southern and eastern Australia during spring and summer ( [[#Harris--2019|Harris and Lucas, 2019]] ). Although Australia’s eucalyptus forests and woodlands are fire adapted ( [[#Collins--2020|Collins, 2020]] ), increasing intensity and frequency of fires may exceed their resilience because of the shorter intervals between high-severity fires ( [[#Bowman--2014|Bowman et al., 2014]] ; [[#Etchells--2020|Etchells et al., 2020]] ; [[#Lindenmayer--2020a|Lindenmayer and Taylor, 2020a]] ). Recent fires have severely impacted eastern rainforests, including significant Gondwana refugia ( [[#Abram--2021|Abram et al., 2021]] ). In New Zealand, the trends in very high and extreme fire weather (1997–2019) have not yet been attributed to climate change ( [[#MfE--2020a|MfE, 2020a]] ).

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'''Figure Box 11.1.1 |''' '''Change in the annual (July to June) number of days that the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) exceeds its 90''' '''th''' '''percentile from July 1985 to June 2020 relative to July 1950 to June 1985 ( [[#BoM%20and%20CSIRO--2020|BoM]] and [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; Abram et al''' '''.''' ''', 2021).'''

Fire weather is projected to increase in frequency, severity and duration for southern and eastern Australia ( ''high confidence'' ) and most of New Zealand ( ''medium confidence'' ) (11.2.2), with projected increases in pyro-convection risk for parts of southern Australia ( [[#Dowdy--2019|Dowdy et al., 2019]] ) and increased dry-lightning and fire ignition for southeast Australia ( [[#Mariani--2019|Mariani et al., 2019]] ; [[#Dowdy--2020|Dowdy, 2020]] ). Increased fire risk in spring may reduce opportunities for prescribed fuel-reduction burning in some regions ( [[#Harris--2019|Harris and Lucas, 2019]] ; [[#Di%20Virgilio--2020|Di Virgilio et al., 2020]] ). Fuel dryness is a key constraint on wildfire occurrence ( [[#Ruthrof--2016|Ruthrof et al., 2016]] ). Vegetation change will affect fuel load and fire risk in different areas in complex ways ( [[#Watt--2019|Watt et al., 2019]] ; [[#Alexandra--2020|Alexandra and Max Finlayson, 2020]] ; [[#Clarke--2020|Clarke et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sanderson--2020|Sanderson and Fisher, 2020]] ).

Direct effects of wildfire include death and injury to people and animals and damage to ecosystems, property, agriculture, water supplies and other infrastructure ( [[#Brodison--2013|Brodison, 2013]] ; [[#Pearce--2018|Pearce, 2018]] ; [[#de%20Jesus--2020|de Jesus et al., 2020]] ; [[#Johnston--2020|Johnston et al., 2020]] ; [[#Maybery--2020|Maybery et al., 2020]] ). Indirect effects include electricity and communication blackouts leading to cascading impacts on services, infrastructure and communities (Bowman, 2012; [[#Schavemaker--2017|Schavemaker and van der Sluis, 2017]] ).

For New Zealand, there has been recent increased frequency and magnitude of property losses due to wildfire ( [[#Pearce--2018|Pearce, 2018]] ). The 1660-hectare Port Hills fire in 2017 resulted in the greatest house losses (9) in almost 100 years ( [[#Langer--2018|Langer et al., 2018]] ), but the subsequent 5540-hectare Lake Ohau fire destroyed 53 houses in 2020 (Waitaki District Council, 2020).

In Australia, between 1987 and 2016, there were 218 deaths, 1000 injuries, 2600 people left homeless and 69,000 people affected by wildfire ( [[#Deloitte--2017b|Deloitte, 2017b]] ). Wildfires cost about AUD$1.1 billion per year on average (11.5.2).

The Australian wildfires of 2019–2020 resulted in 33 deaths, over 3000 houses destroyed, AUD$2.3 billion in insured losses and AUD$3.6 billion in losses for tourism, hospitality, agriculture and forestry ( [[#CoA--2020e|CoA, 2020e]] ; [[#Filkov--2020|Filkov et al., 2020]] ) (Figure Box 11.1.2). Smoke caused a further 429 deaths and 3230 hospitalisations as a result of respiratory distress and illness, with health costs totalling AUD$1.95 billion ( [[#Johnston--2020|Johnston et al., 2020]] ). These fires burnt about 5.8 to 8.1 million hectares of forest in eastern Australia ( [[#Ward--2020|Ward et al., 2020]] ; [[#Godfree--2021|Godfree et al., 2021]] ), resulting in the loss or displacement of nearly 3 billion vertebrate animals ( [[#CoA--2020e|CoA, 2020e]] ; [[#Wintle--2020|Wintle et al., 2020]] ). Further, 114 listed threatened species lost at least 50% of their habitat, and 49 lost 80% ( [[#Wintle--2020|Wintle et al., 2020]] ), among other severe ecological impacts ( [[#Hyman--2020|Hyman et al., 2020]] ). Smoke carried over 4000 km to New Zealand, where it increased snow/glacier melt through darkening surfaces and produced a detectable odour (Pu et al. 2021;( [[#Filkov--2020|Filkov et al., 2020]] ). The fire season of 2019–2020 was at least 30% more likely than a century ago due to the influence of climate change ( [[#van%20Oldenborgh--2021|van Oldenborgh et al., 2021]] ). Following the fires, a Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements made 80 recommendations, most of which were accepted by government, including establishing a disaster advisory body and a resilience and recovery agency (11.5.2.3) ( [[#CoA--2020e|CoA, 2020e]] ).

In the face of climate change and the increased cost of fire damage and suppression, there has been considerable investment in fire risk reduction (Table Box 11.1.1). Recent analysis of 8800 fires in Australia shows resource constraints in response capacity are a barrier to effectively containing fires ( [[#Collins--2018b|Collins et al., 2018b]] ), compounded by lengthened and more extreme fire seasons.

'''Table Box 11.1.1 |''' '''Examples of adaptation options and enablers to reduce wildfire risk''' '''( [[#Hart--2011|Hart and Langer, 2011]] ; [[#Mitchell--2013|Mitchell, 2013]] ; Price et al.''' , 2015; [[#Tolhurst--2016|Tolhurst and McCarthy, 2016]] ; [[#Deloitte--2017b|Deloitte, 2017b]] ; [[#Miller--2017|Miller et al., 2017]] ; [[#Steffen--2017|Steffen et al., 2017]] ; [[#Kornakova--2018|Kornakova and Glavovic, 2018]] ; [[#Newton--2018|Newton et al., 2018]] ; [[#Pearce--2018|Pearce, 2018]] ; [[#CoA--2020e|CoA, 2020e]] ; [[#McKemey--2020|McKemey et al., 2020]] ).

{| class="wikitable"
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! Land management

! Communications

! Infrastructure

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| Prescribed burning to reduce fuel load close to built assets.

| Clearer communication of existing exposure and vulnerability to enable informed decisions about risk tolerance and management, including sites of key biodiversity that are sensitive or susceptible to fire.

| Enhanced training and support for firefighters and aerial firefighting assets, including sharing of resources nationally and internationally to address the increasing overlap of fire seasons, which are lengthening across the world.

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| Engagement with Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples to utilise and learn from their fire management knowledge and skills to assist in landscape management and greenhouse gas mitigation.

| Increased research to understand interactions between fire, fuel, weather, climate and human factors to enhance projections of fire occurrence and behaviour.

| Nationally consistent response to exceedance of air quality standards.

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| Locating power lines appropriately or underground and decentralising power supply to reduce ignitions.

| Community education and engagement, encouraging house and property maintenance, improving early-warning systems, more targeted messaging and increased emergency evacuation planning and sheltering options.

| Improved governance arrangements to ensure greater accountability and coordination between agencies, sharing of data and resources for emergency planning and greater understanding of risks to critical infrastructure and supply chains.

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| Preventive, community-based interventions to reduce ignitions from arson and accidental fires.

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| Development of new systems to augment capability of fire services and technological advances to detect and respond to fires.

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| Reduced exposure of new assets through statutory spatial planning and land use regulations, building codes and building design standards.

|
|}

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'''Figure Box 11.1.2 |''' '''Cascading impacts on people, economic activity, built assets, ecosystems and species arising from the Black Summer fires of 2019–2020 in eastern and southern Australia''' ( [[#Boer--2020|Boer et al. , 2020]] ; [[#CoA--2020e|CoA, 2020e]] ; [[#CoA--2020b|CoA, 2020b]] ; [[#CoA--2020a|CoA, 2020a]] ; [[#CSIRO--2020|CSIRO, 2020]] ; [[#Filkov--2020|Filkov et al., 2020]] ; [[#Johnston--2020|Johnston et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ward--2020|Ward et al., 2020]] ; [[#Wintle--2020|Wintle et al., 2020]] ; [[#Abram--2021|Abram et al., 2021]] ; [[#Godfree--2021|Godfree et al., 2021]] ).

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