Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-17 (section)

==== 17.2.1.3 Benefit to Humans and Ecosystems ====

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While some of the 24 adaptation options are specific to certain risk contexts (e.g., coastal areas, agricultural production), others are more widely applicable (e.g., early-warning systems, health care systems, creation/restoration of natural areas). Figure 17.3 depicts which of these are most context specific, for example benefitting less than 1 billion people. This is contrasted with the extent to which each adaptation option is beneficial to ecosystem services. Many of the more generalisable adaptations have also been shown to have benefits to ecosystem services, such as nature restoration and changes to diets/food waste ( ''medium confidence'' ). While health care systems and the establishment of health-related infrastructure can be widely used as adaptation options, their design and application to date have not generally benefitted ecosystems or ecosystem services ( ''medium evidence'' , ''low agreement'' ).

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[[File:39c55a30d83a82aece7d2e7058e6a0f8 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_17_003.png]]

'''Figure 17.3 |''' '''Benefit of representative adaptation options to humans and ecosystems.''' The breadth of applicability of each adaptation option benefiting humans is estimated by the degree to which each adaptation can be applied across multiple contexts, depicted on the x axis. The benefit of each adaptation option for ecosystems and ecosystem services is depicted on the y axis. See Annex A for literature underpinning each assessment. This figure uses the 24 representative adaptation options from Table 17.1 and Figure 17.2. Confidence levels are represented by dots.

As a general method related to adaptive management, ‘early warnings’ are the most frequently discussed adaptation option to deal with a changing climate across all key risks, sectors and regions. Early-warning systems are an adaptation that can benefit more than 5 billion people ( ''high confidence'' ). Examples range from short-term disaster early-warning systems to revision of sea level rise plans based on monitoring. For example, the humanitarian community is investing in forecast-based financing systems to prepare for extreme events ( [[#Coughlan%20de%20Perez--2015|Coughlan de Perez et al., 2015]] ; [[#MacLeod--2021|MacLeod et al., 2021]] ). Forecasts are also used to manage hydropower dams ( [[#Ahmad--2020|Ahmad and Hossain, 2020]] ), to trigger interventions before public health emergencies ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.4.2|Section 7.4.2]] ) and to alert fishermen of algal blooms in the world’s oceans ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6.2.3|Section 3.6.2.3.3]] ). Table 17.2 provides examples of adaptations using early-warning systems that have been used to address each of the key risks.

In addition to immediate investments that reduce vulnerability and exposure, monitoring and early-warning systems allow people to take additional actions when there is an imminent event on the horizon (e.g., temporary evacuation during extreme events rather than permanent migration). This allows for ongoing adaptive decision-making ( [[#Alessa--2016|Alessa et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ebi--2016|Ebi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Barnard--2017|Barnard et al., 2017]] ; [[#Haasnoot--2018|Haasnoot et al., 2018]] ). However, these systems are only cost-effective for forecastable and actionable hazards, and require effective institutional governance ( [[#Wilkinson--2018|Wilkinson et al., 2018]] ; [[#IPCC--2019c|IPCC, 2019c]] ).

'''Table 17.2 |''' Examples of adaptation investments and early-warning system options for adaptive management for each of the key risks in Chapter 16.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Key risk

! Adaptive early-warning systems-based measures

|-
| Risk to coastal socio-ecological systems

| Storm surge early warnings ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.5.7|Section 15.5.7]] )

Early warnings of water-borne disease ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6.2.3|Section 3.6.2.3.3]] )

|-
| Risk to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems

| Fishery marine heatwave warnings and mobile fishing equipment ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6.2.3|Section 3.6.2.3]] , Chapter 13)

Forecast of shifts and regime changes in ecosystems ( [[#Pace--2015|Pace et al., 2015]] ; [[#Bauch--2016|Bauch et al., 2016]] ; [[#Burthe--2016|Burthe et al., 2016]] ).

|-
| Risks associated with critical physical infrastructure, networks and services

| Early warning for infrastructure and services (Sections 13.2.2.1, 10.4.6.4.1)

|-
| Risk to living standards and equity

| Adaptive social protection systems ( [[#Schwan--2018|Schwan and Yu, 2018]] ; [[#Ulrichs--2019|Ulrichs et al., 2019]] ; [[#Daron--2021|Daron et al., 2021]] ).

|-
| Risk to human health

| Heat health early-warning systems ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.4.2.1|Section 7.4.2.1.2]] )

Health and disease monitoring and outbreak prediction (Sections 7.4.2.1.1, 12.5.6)

|-
| Risk to food security

| Forecasting rainfall and droughts for seed selection ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.5.2.2.3|Section 10.5.2.2.3]] )

Food price early warnings ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-7#7.4.2.1|Section 7.4.2.1.3]] )

|-
| Risk to water security

| Early warnings for flood and drought (Sections 4.4.1, 10.5.2.2.3, 15.5.7)

|-
| Risk to peace and migration

| Transboundary flood early warnings ( [[#Tuncok--2015|Tuncok, 2015]] ).

|}

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