Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

==== 9.4.1.1 How Much Adaptation Finance is Needed? ====

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There is limited research providing quantitative estimates of adaptation costs across Africa. Adaptation costs in Africa have been estimated at USD 7–15 billion per year by 2020 ( [[#Schaeffer--2013|Schaeffer et al., 2013]] ), corresponding to USD 5–11 per capita per year. The African Development Bank estimates costs of near-term adaptation needs identified in the Intended NDCs (INDCs) of African countries as USD 7.4 billion per year from 2020, recognising INDCs describe only a limited subset of adaptation needs ( [[#AfDB--2019|AfDB, 2019]] ). Many African countries, particularly Least Developed Countries (LDCs), express a stronger demand for adaptation finance—a study of financial demands in INDCs for 16 African countries suggests a ratio around 2:1 for adaptation to mitigation finance with demand for Eritrea and Uganda approximately 80% for adaptation ( [[#Zhang--2016|Zhang and Pan, 2016]] ).

Adaptation costs in Africa are expected to rise rapidly as global warming increases ( ''high confidence'' ). A meta-analysis of adaptation costs identified in 44 NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) from developing countries estimated a median adaptation cost around USD 17 per capita per year for 2020–2030 ( [[#Chapagain--2020|Chapagain et al., 2020]] ). Adaptation cost estimates for Africa increase from USD 20–50 billion per year for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 in 2050 (around 1.5°C of warming), to USD 18–60 billion per year for just over 2°C, to USD 100–437 billion per year for 4°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels ( [[#Schaeffer--2013|Schaeffer et al., 2013]] ; [[#UNEP--2015|UNEP, 2015]] ; [[#Chapagain--2020|Chapagain et al., 2020]] ). Focusing on individual sectors, the average country-level cost is projected to be USD 0.8 billion per year for adapting to temperature-related mortality under 4°C global warming ( [[#Carleton--2018|Carleton et al., 2018]] ), with cumulative energy costs for cooling demand projected to reach USD 51 billion by 2°C and USD 486 billion by 4°C global warming ( [[#Parkes--2019|Parkes et al., 2019]] ). Transport infrastructure repair costs are also projected to be substantial ( [[#9.8.2|Section 9.8.2]] ) More precise estimates are limited by methodological difficulties and data gaps for costing adaptation, uncertainties about future levels of global warming and associated climate hazards, and ethical choices such as the desired level of protection achieved ( [[#Fankhauser--2010|Fankhauser, 2010]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2018|Hallegatte et al., 2018]] ; [[#UNFCCC--2018|UNFCCC, 2018]] ) (Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17). As such, existing estimates are expected to substantially underestimate eventual costs with adaptation costs possibly 2–3 times higher than current global estimates by 2030, and 4–5 times higher by 2050 ( [[#UNEP--2016a|UNEP, 2016a]] ).

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