Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

=== CCP6.2.4 Economic Activities ===

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Climate change presents significant risks to economic activities in the polar regions ( ''very high confidence'' ) and simultaneously enables development possibilities for fisheries (CCP6.2.3.3), agriculture (CCP6.2.3.2), the sharing and subsistence economy (CCP6.2.3.1) (SMCCP6.2) ( ''high confidence'' ), maritime trade (Box CCP6.1), natural resource development (CCP6.2.4.1) ( ''medium confidence'' ), tourism (CCP6.2.4.2) and transportation (including shipping) (CCP6.2.4.3; FAQ CCP6.2). Hundreds of billions of dollars are expected to be invested in the polar regions in the next several decades ( [[#Lloyd’s--2012|Lloyd’s, 2012]] ; [[#Barnhart--2016|Barnhart et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pendakur--2017|Pendakur, 2017]] ; [[#Tsukerman--2019|Tsukerman et al., 2019]] ), and, as this unfolds, there are opportunities to simultaneously implement adaptation strategies that support climate resilient development pathways in line with self-determination for Indigenous Peoples and local communities and locally derived visions of successful adaptation and development (CCP6.3.2, CCP6.4.3) ( [[#Jorgenson--2007|Jorgenson, 2007]] ; [[#Ritsema--2015|Ritsema et al., 2015]] ; [[#Ready--2017|Ready and Power, 2017]] ; [[#Larsen--2020|Larsen and Petrov, 2020]] ).

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==== CCP6.2.4.1 Changing access to natural resources with consequences for safety, economic development and climate mitigation ====

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Climate change is improving access to natural resources in the Arctic with consequences for human safety ( ''high confidence'' ), economic development ( ''very high confidence'' ) and global mitigation efforts ( ''medium confidence'' ). Reductions in sea ice combined with improved extraction and transportation technologies have increased accessibility to natural resources across the Arctic ( [[#Eliasson--2017|Eliasson et al., 2017]] ; [[#Dawson--2018b|Dawson et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Stephen--2018|Stephen, 2018]] ), a situation that could support continued global dependence on relatively cheap and abundant fossil fuels resources and contribute to further warming. By 2040 (RCP4.5) it is expected that sea ice will have receded enough to make gas production technologically feasible in the European off-shore Arctic ( [[#Petrick--2017|Petrick et al., 2017]] ). However, increased sea ice mobility, iceberg abundance, storm surge and surface wave action ( [[#Ng--2018|Ng et al., 2018]] ; [[#Howell--2019|Howell and Brady, 2019]] ; [[#Casas-Prat--2020|Casas-Prat and Wang, 2020]] ) will also increase risks to ships servicing mines in a region that already exhibits disproportionately high accident rates ( [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2016|Council of Canadian Academies, 2016]] ) (CCP6.3.1, Table CCP6.1). Season lengths for ship-based support to mines and extraction sites will increase with sea ice change, while access via ice roads will decrease with warming ( [[#Perrin--2015|Perrin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2016|Council of Canadian Academies, 2016]] ; [[#Trofimenko--2017|Trofimenko et al., 2017]] ; [[#Southcott--2018|Southcott and Natcher, 2018]] ). By 2050, climate change impacts to the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road servicing mines in the northeastern region of the Northwest Territories, Canada could cost between $55 million to $213 million CAD to maintain for a shorter period of time than at present ( [[#Perrin--2015|Perrin et al., 2015]] ). Changes in submarine permafrost, critical to mining infrastructure, such as pipelines and offshore infrastructure ( [[#Bashaw--2016|Bashaw et al., 2016]] ; [[#Paulin--2016|Paulin and Caines, 2016]] ), are expected to increase production costs and impact safety for workers ( [[#Riedel--2017|Riedel et al., 2017]] ). By mid-century, regardless of emissions scenario, it is expected that risks from permafrost thaw will be disproportionately high for industrial infrastructure along major pipeline systems in Alaska and natural gas extraction areas in the Yamal-Nenets region in northwestern Siberia, Russia ( [[#Hjort--2018|Hjort et al., 2018]] ).

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==== CCP6.2.4.2 Changing demand, opportunities and risks for polar tourism ====

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Climate change has increased risks to, and demand for, polar tourism experiences related to increased maritime accessibility ( ''high confidence'' ), lengthening of warm weather season lengths ( ''very high confidence'' ) and development of a ‘last chance tourism market’ ( ''medium confidence'' ). Reductions in sea ice extent have facilitated increased access for polar cruising ( [[#Dawson--2018b|Dawson et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Stewart--2020|Stewart et al., 2020]] ). Demand for Arctic cruises has increased by 20.5% over the past 5 years and resulted in 27.2 million passengers in 2018 ( [[#Shijin--2020|Shijin et al., 2020]] ). In the Antarctic, tourist numbers increased by 27% from 1992 to 2018 and attracted 75,000 visitors in 2019–2020 (IAATO, 2020; [[#Shijin--2020|Shijin et al., 2020]] ), making it the largest economic sector in the entire region ( [[#Stewart--2020|Stewart et al., 2020]] ). The recent increase in polar tourism is due in part to the development of a niche market called ‘last chance tourism’, which involves explicitly marketing vulnerable or vanishing destinations or features (i.e., glaciers, polar bears, landscapes) and encouraging tourists to see them ‘before they are gone’ ( [[#Dawson--2018a|Dawson et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Groulx--2019|Groulx et al., 2019]] ). However, tourism development opportunities will also contend with ongoing risks related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which halted tourism globally in 2020–2021 ( [[#Frame--2020|Frame and Hemmings, 2020]] ; [[#Lorenzo--2020|Lorenzo et al., 2020]] ), as well as those related to increased climatic risks limiting participation and reducing safety and security. By 2100, under RCP8.5, snow cover season length suitable for winter recreational activities is projected to decrease by 21–49% in West Greenland ( [[#Schrot--2019|Schrot et al., 2019]] ). Reduced sea ice and snow cover creates hazards for and could limit dog sledding, cross country skiing, snowmobiling and floe edge tours, with limited adaptation strategies available for low-elevation areas ( [[#Stephen--2018|Stephen, 2018]] ; [[#Palma--2019|Palma et al., 2019]] ).

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==== CCP6.2.4.3 Risks and opportunities in transportation systems ====

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Climate hazards create risks to transportation sectors with consequences for human safety ( ''very high confidence'' ), security ( ''low confidence'' ) and economic development ( ''high confidence'' ). Remote polar regions are highly reliant on transportation systems (air, road, sea) to support and service communities (Arctic) and scientific stations (Antarctic and Arctic). Changes in permafrost, snow, ice and precipitation patterns have increased the risk of rail infrastructure and of using permanent roads and semi-permanent trails that service Antarctic research stations, connect Arctic communities and support Indigenous food harvesting activities ( [[#Calmels--2015|Calmels et al., 2015]] ; [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2016|Council of Canadian Academies, 2016]] ; [[#Ford--2019|Ford et al., 2019]] ; [[#Stewart--2020|Stewart et al., 2020]] ). Warming temperatures have particularly decreased the reliability, safety level and season length of winter ice roads ( [[#Perrin--2015|Perrin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2016|Council of Canadian Academies, 2016]] ; [[#Gädeke--2021|Gädeke et al., 2021]] ) in the northern Baltic (Finland) ( [[#Kiani--2018|Kiani et al., 2018]] ), James Bay (Canada) ( [[#Hori--2018a|Hori et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Hori--2018b|Hori et al., 2018b]] ) and Yakutia (Russia) ( [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] ). Dog sled travel in northwest Greenland has experienced shorter season lengths ( [[#Nuttall--2020|Nuttall, 2020]] ), Alaskan whale hunters have had difficulty finding suitable ice for safe harvest activities ( [[#Huntington--2016|Huntington et al., 2016]] ; [[#Nyland--2017|Nyland et al., 2017]] ), and unpredictability in break-up and freeze-up of sea ice has compromised safe travel to and from culturally significant hunting and camping areas in Canada ( [[#Dawson--2020|Dawson et al., 2020]] ; [[#Simonee--2021|Simonee et al., 2021]] ) and northeast Siberia ( [[#Ksenofontov--2017|Ksenofontov et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mustonen--2021|Mustonen and]] [[#Shadrin--2021|Shadrin, 2021]] ). Fog ( ''low confidence'' ) and an increase in precipitation falling as ice pellets or hail ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Kochtubajda--2017|Kochtubajda et al., 2017]] ) is expected to continue to cause operational delays and create safety issues for aviation in the polar regions ( [[#Debortoli--2019|Debortoli et al., 2019]] ).

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