Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/SPM (section)

== D: Climate Resilient Development ==

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Climate resilient development integrates adaptation measures and their enabling conditions (Section C) with mitigation to advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development involves questions of equity and system transitions in land, ocean and ecosystems; urban and infrastructure; energy; industry; and society and includes adaptations for human, ecosystem and planetary health. Pursuing climate resilient development focuses on both where people and ecosystems are co-located as well as the protection and maintenance of ecosystem function at the planetary scale. Pathways for advancing climate resilient development are development trajectories that successfully integrate mitigation and adaptation actions to advance sustainable development. Climate resilient development pathways may be temporarily coincident with any RCP and SSP scenario used throughout AR6, but do not follow any particular scenario in all places and over all time.

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=== Conditions for Climate Resilient Development ===

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'''D.1 Evidence of observed impacts, projected risks, levels and trends in vulnerability, and adaptation limits, demonstrate that worldwide climate resilient development action is more urgent than previously assessed in AR5. Comprehensive, effective, and innovative responses can harness synergies and reduce trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development. ( '''''very high confidence''''' )   Expand Links to chapters 2.6, 3.4, 3.6, 4.2, 4.6, 7.2, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 9.3, 10.6, 13.3, 13.8, 13.10, 14.7, 17.2, 18.3, Box 18.1, Figure 18.1, Table 18.5'''
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'''D.1.1''' There is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to enable climate resilient development. Multiple climate resilient development pathways are still possible by which communities, the private sector, governments, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development – each involving and resulting from different societal choices influenced by different contexts and opportunities and constraints on system transitions. Climate resilient development pathways are progressively constrained by every increment of warming, in particular beyond 1.5°C, social and economic inequalities, the balance between adaptation and mitigation varying by national, regional and local circumstances and geographies, according to capabilities including resources, vulnerability, culture and values, past development choices leading to past emissions and future warming scenarios, bounding the climate resilient development pathways remaining, and the ways in which development trajectories are shaped by equity, and social and climate justice. ( ''very high confidence'' ) { Figure TS.14d, 2.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.3, 9.4, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 14.7, 15.3, 18.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.5 CCP7.5] }

'''D.1.2''' Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the world ( ''very high confidence'' ). Climate impacts and risks exacerbate vulnerability and social and economic inequities and consequently increase persistent and acute development challenges, especially in developing regions and sub-regions, and in particularly exposed sites, including coasts, small islands, deserts, mountains and polar regions. This in turn undermines efforts to achieve sustainable development, particularly for vulnerable and marginalized communities ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 2.5, 4.4, 4.7, 6.3, Box 6.4, Figure 6.5, 9.4, Table 18.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.2 CCP3.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.3 CCP3.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB HEALTH, CWGB URBAN }

'''D.1.3''' Embedding effective and equitable adaptation and mitigation in development planning can reduce vulnerability, conserve and restore ecosystems, and enable climate resilient development. This is especially challenging in localities with persistent development gaps and limited resources ( ''high confidence'' ). Dynamic trade-offs and competing priorities exist between mitigation, adaptation, and development. Integrated and inclusive system-oriented solutions based on equity and social and climate justice reduce risks and enable climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.4, 2.6, Box 2.2, 3.6, 4.7, 4.8, Box 4.5, Box 4.8, 5.13, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, Box 9.3, 10.6, 12.5, 12.6, 13.3, 13.4, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7, 18.4, CCB DEEP, CCP2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , CCB HEALTH, SRCCL }

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=== Enabling Climate Resilient Development ===

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'''D.2 Climate resilient development is enabled when governments, civil society and the private sector make inclusive development choices that prioritise risk reduction, equity and justice, and when decision-making processes, finance and actions are integrated across governance levels, sectors and timeframes ( '''''very high confidence''''' ). Climate resilient development is facilitated by international cooperation and by governments at all levels working with communities, civil society, educational bodies, scientific and other institutions, media, investors and businesses; and by developing partnerships with traditionally marginalised groups, including women, youth, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and ethnic minorities ( '''''high confidence''''' ). These partnerships are most effective when supported by enabling political leadership, institutions, resources, including finance, as well as climate services, information and decision support tools ( '''''high confidence''''' )   Expand [[#figure-spm-5|Figure SPM.5]] Links to chapters 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.4, 17.6, 18.4, 18.5, CCP2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.4, CCP6.4, CCP7.6, CCB DEEP, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR'''
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'''D.2.1''' Climate resilient development is advanced when actors work in equitable, just and enabling ways to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, toward equitable and just outcomes ( ''high confidence'' ). These practices build on diverse knowledges about climate risk and chosen development pathways account for local, regional and global climate impacts, risks, barriers and opportunities ( ''high confidence'' ). Structural vulnerabilities to climate change can be reduced through carefully designed and implemented legal, policy, and process interventions from the local to global that address inequities based on gender, ethnicity, disability, age, location and income ( ''very high confidence'' ). This includes rights-based approaches that focus on capacity-building, meaningful participation of the most vulnerable groups, and their access to key resources, including financing, to reduce risk and adapt ( ''high confidence'' ). Evidence shows that climate resilient development processes link scientific, Indigenous, local, practitioner and other forms of knowledge, and are more effective and sustainable because they are locally appropriate and lead to more legitimate, relevant and effective actions ( ''high'' ''confidenc'' ''e'' ). Pathways towards climate resilient development overcome jurisdictional and organizational barriers, and are founded on societal choices that accelerate and deepen key system transitions ( ''very high confidence'' ) ''.'' Planning processes and decision analysis tools can help identify ‘low regrets’ options [[#footnote-002|47]] that enable mitigation and adaptation in the face of change, complexity, deep uncertainty and divergent views ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, Box 8.7, 9.4, Box 9.2, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2–17.6, 18.2–18.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] –2.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.6 CCP7.6] , CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR }

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[[File:ba59c08987853637f15c316a020c7fb0 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_SPM_005.png]]

'''Figure SPM.5 |''' '''Climate resilient development (CRD) is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development.''' This figure builds on Figure SPM.9 in AR5 WGII (depicting climate resilient pathways) by describing how CRD pathways are the result of cumulative societal choices and actions within multiple arenas.

'''Panel''' '''(a)''' Societal choices towards higher CRD '''(green cog)''' or lower CRD ''(red cog)'' result from interacting decisions and actions by diverse government, private sector and civil society actors, in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. These actors engage with adaptation, mitigation and development actions in political, economic and financial, ecological, socio-cultural, knowledge and technology, and community arenas from local to international levels. Opportunities for climate resilient development are not equitably distributed around the world.

'''Panel''' '''(b)''' Cumulatively, societal choices, which are made continuously, shift global development pathways towards higher '''(green)''' or lower ''(red)'' climate resilient development. Past conditions (past emissions, climate change and development) have already eliminated some development pathways towards higher CRD '''(dashed green line)''' .

'''Panel''' '''(c)''' Higher CRD is characterised by outcomes that advance sustainable development for all. Climate resilient development is progressively harder to achieve with global warming levels beyond 1.5°C. Inadequate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 reduces climate resilient development prospects. There is a narrowing window of opportunity to shift pathways towards more climate resilient development futures as reflected by the adaptation limits and increasing climate risks, considering the remaining carbon budgets. (Figure SPM.2, Figure SPM.3) { Figure TS.14b, 2.6, 3.6, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 16.4, 16.5, 17.3, 17.4, 17.5, 18.1, 18.2, 18.3, 18.4, Box 18.1, Figure 18.1, Figure 18.2, Figure 18.3, CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB SLR, WGI AR6 Table SPM.1, WGI AR6 Table SPM.2, SR1.5 Figure SPM.1 }

'''D.2.2''' Inclusive governance contributes to more effective and enduring adaptation outcomes and enables climate resilient development ( ''high confidence'' ). Inclusive processes strengthen the ability of governments and other stakeholders to jointly consider factors such as the rate and magnitude of change and uncertainties, associated impacts, and timescales of different climate resilient development pathways given past development choices leading to past emissions and scenarios of future global warming ( ''high confidence'' ). Associated societal choices are made continuously through interactions in arenas of engagement from local to international levels. The quality and outcome of these interactions helps determine whether development pathways shift towards or away from climate resilient development ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.'' (Figure SPM.5) { 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2–17.6, 18.2, 18.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] –2.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.6 CCP7.6] , CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG }

'''D.2.3''' Governance for climate resilient development is most effective when supported by formal and informal institutions and practices that are well-aligned across scales, sectors, policy domains and timeframes. Governance efforts that advance climate resilient development account for the dynamic, uncertain and context-specific nature of climate-related risk, and its interconnections with non-climate risks. Institutions [[#footnote-002|48]] that enable climate resilient development are flexible and responsive to emergent risks and facilitate sustained and timely action. Governance for climate resilient development is enabled by adequate and appropriate human and technological resources, information, capacities and finance. ( ''high confidence'' ) { 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.3, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2-17.6, 18.2, 18.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] –2.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.6 CCP7.6] , CCB DEEP, CCB GENDER, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR }

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=== Climate Resilient Development for Natural and Human Systems ===

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'''D.3 Interactions between changing urban form, exposure and vulnerability can create climate change-induced risks and losses for cities and settlements. However, the global trend of urbanisation also offers a critical opportunity in the near-term, to advance climate resilient development ( '''''high confidence''''' ). Integrated, inclusive planning and investment in everyday decision-making about urban infrastructure, including social, ecological and grey/physical infrastructures, can significantly increase the adaptive capacity of urban and rural settlements. Equitable outcomes contributes to multiple benefits for health and well-being and ecosystem services, including for Indigenous Peoples, marginalised and vulnerable communities ( '''''high confidence''''' ). Climate resilient development in urban areas also supports adaptive capacity in more rural places through maintaining peri-urban supply chains of goods and services and financial flows ( '''''medium confidence''''' ). Coastal cities and settlements play an especially important role in advancing climate resilient development ( '''''high confidence''''' ).   Expand Links to chapters 6.2, 6.3, Table 6.6, 7.4, 8.6, Box 9.8, 18.3, CCP2.1, CCP2.2, CCP6.2, CWGB URBAN'''
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'''D.3.1''' Taking integrated action for climate resilience to avoid climate risk requires urgent decision making for the new built environment and retrofitting existing urban design, infrastructure and land use. Based on socioeconomic circumstances, adaptation and sustainable development actions will provide multiple benefits including for health and well-being, particularly when supported by national governments, non-governmental organisations and international agencies that work across sectors in partnerships with local communities. Equitable partnerships between local and municipal governments, the private sector, Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and civil society can, including through international cooperation, advance climate resilient development by addressing structural inequalities, insufficient financial resources, cross-city risks and the integration of Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge. ( ''high confidence'' ) { 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, Table 6.6, 7.4, 8.5, 9.4, 10.5. 12.5, 17.4, Table 17.8, 18.2, Box 18.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , CCB FINANCE, CCB GENDER, CCB INDIG, CWGB URBAN }

'''D.3.2''' Rapid global urbanisation offers opportunities for climate resilient development in diverse contexts from rural and informal settlements to large metropolitan areas ( ''high confidence'' ). Dominant models of energy intensive and market-led urbanisation, insufficient and misaligned finance and a predominant focus on grey infrastructure in the absence of integration with ecological and social approaches, risks missing opportunities for adaptation and locking in maladaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Poor land use planning and siloed approaches to health, ecological and social planning also exacerbates, vulnerability in already marginalised communities ( ''medium confidence'' ). Urban climate resilient development is observed to be more effective if it is responsive to regional and local land use development and adaptation gaps, and addresses the underlying drivers of vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ). The greatest gains in well-being can be achieved by prioritizing finance to reduce climate risk for low-income and marginalized residents including people living in informal settlements ( ''high confidence'' ). { 5.14, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, Figure 6.5, Table 6.6, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4, Table 17.8, 18.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , CCB HEALTH, CWGB URBAN }

'''D.3.3''' Urban systems are critical, interconnected sites for enabling climate resilient development, especially at the coast. Coastal cities and settlements play a key role in moving toward higher climate resilient development given firstly, almost 11% of the global population – 896 million people – lived within the Low Elevation Coastal Zone [[#footnote-001|49]] in 2020, potentially increasing to beyond 1 billion people by 2050, and these people, and associated development and coastal ecosystems, face escalating climate compounded risks, including sea level rise. Secondly, these coastal cities and settlements make key contributions to climate resilient development through their vital role in national economies and inland communities, global trade supply chains, cultural exchange, and centres of innovation. ( ''high confidence'' ) { 6.1, 6.2, 6.4, Table 6.6, Box 15.2, SMCCP Table 2.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , CCB SLR, XWGB URBAN, SROCC Chapter 4 }

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'''D.4 Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems is fundamental to climate resilient development, in light of the threats climate change poses to them and their roles in adaptation and mitigation ( '''''very high confidence''''' ). Recent analyses, drawing on a range of lines of evidence, suggest that maintaining the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services at a global scale depends on effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas, including currently near-natural ecosystems ( '''''high confidence''''' ).   Expand Links to chapters 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, Box 3.4, 12.5, 13.3, 13.4, 13.5, 13.10, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL'''
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'''D.4.1''' Building the resilience of biodiversity and supporting ecosystem integrity [[#footnote-000|50]] can maintain benefits for people, including livelihoods, human health and well-being and the provision of food, fibre and water, as well as contributing to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and mitigation. { 2.2, 2.5, 2.6, Table 2.6, Table 2.7, 3.5, 3.6, 5.8, 5.13, 5.14, Box 5.11, 12.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , CCB COVID, CCB GENDER, CCB ILLNESS, CCB INDIG, CCB MIGRATE, CCB NATURAL }

'''D.4.2''' Protecting and restoring ecosystems is essential for maintaining and enhancing the resilience of the biosphere ( ''very'' ''high confidence'' ). Degradation and loss of ecosystems is also a cause of greenhouse gas emissions and is at increasing risk of being exacerbated by climate change impacts, including droughts and wildfire ''(high confidence).'' Climate resilient development avoids adaptation and mitigation measures that damage ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ). Documented examples of adverse impacts of land-based measures intended as mitigation, when poorly implemented, include afforestation of grasslands, savannas and peatlands, and risks from bioenergy crops at large scale to water supply, food security and biodiversity ( ''high confidence'' ). { 2.4, 2.5, Box 2.2, 3.4, 3.5, Box 3.4, Box 9.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.3 CCP7.3] , CCB NATURAL, CWGB BIOECONOMY }

'''D.4.3''' Biodiversity and ecosystem services have limited capacity to adapt to increasing global warming levels, which will make climate resilient development progressively harder to achieve beyond 1.5°C warming ( ''very high confidence'' ). Consequences of current and future global warming for climate resilient development include reduced effectiveness of Ecosystem-based Adaptation and approaches to climate change mitigation based on ecosystems and amplifying feedbacks to the climate system ( ''high confidence'' ). { Figure TS.14d, 2.4, 2.5, 2.6, 3.4, Box 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, Table 5.2, 12.5, 13.2, 13.3, 13.10, 14.5, 14.5, Box 14.3, 15.3, 17.3, 17.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , CCB EXTREMES, CCB ILLNESS, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR, SR1.5, SRCCL, SROCC }

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=== Achieving Climate Resilient Development ===

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'''D.5 It is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global climate resilient development ( '''''very high confidence''''' ). Societal choices and actions implemented in the next decade determine the extent to which medium- and long-term pathways will deliver higher or lower climate resilient development ( '''''high confidence''''' ). Importantly climate resilient development prospects are increasingly limited if current greenhouse gas emissions do not rapidly decline, especially if 1.5°C global warming is exceeded in the near-term ( '''''high confidence''''' ). These prospects are constrained by past development, emissions and climate change, and enabled by inclusive governance, adequate and appropriate human and technological resources, information, capacities and finance ( '''''high confidence''''' ).   Expand Links to chapters Figure TS.14d, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 2.6, 2.7, 3.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7, 15.3, 15.6, 15.7, 16.2, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, 17.2–17.6, 18.2–18.5, CCP2.3–2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.3, CCP5.4, Table CCP5.2, CCP6.3, CCP6.4, CCP7.5, CCP7.6, CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR'''
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'''D.5.1''' Climate resilient development is already challenging at current global warming levels ( ''high confidence'' ). The prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming levels exceeds 1.5°C ( ''high confidence'' ) and not be possible in some regions and sub-regions if the global warming level exceeds 2°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate resilient development is most constrained in regions/subregions in which climate impacts and risks are already advanced, including low-lying coastal cities and settlements, small islands, deserts, mountains and polar regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Regions and subregions with high levels of poverty, water, food and energy insecurity, vulnerable urban environments, degraded ecosystems and rural environments, and/or few enabling conditions, face many non-climate challenges that inhibit climate resilient development which are further exacerbated by climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). { Figure TS.14d, 1.2, Box 6.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 14.7, 15.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.5 CCP7.5] }

'''D.5.2''' Inclusive governance, investment aligned with climate resilient development, access to appropriate technology and rapidly scaled-up finance, and capacity building of governments at all levels, the private sector and civil society enable climate resilient development. Experience shows that climate resilient development processes are timely, anticipatory, integrative, flexible and action focused. Common goals and social learning build adaptive capacity for climate resilient development ''.'' When implementing adaptation and mitigation together, and taking trade-offs into account, multiple benefits and synergies for human well-being as well as ecosystem and planetary health can be realised. Prospects for climate resilient development are increased by inclusive processes involving local knowledge and Indigenous Knowledge as well as processes that coordinate across risks and institutions. Climate resilient development is enabled by increased international cooperation including mobilising and enhancing access to finance, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups. ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure SPM.5) { 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2–17.6, 18.2–18.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] –2.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.6 CCP7.6] , CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR }

'''D.5.3''' The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. ( ''very high confidence'' ) { 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 16.2, Table SM16.24, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, 17.4, 17.5, 17.6, 18.3, 18.4, 18.5, CCB DEEP, CWGB URBAN, WGI AR6 SPM, SROCC SPM, SRCCL SPM }

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[[#footnote-049-backlink|1]] Decision IPCC/XLVI-3, The assessment covers scientific literature accepted for publication by 1 September 2021.

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[[#footnote-048-backlink|2]] The three Special Reports are: ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (SR1.5)’; ‘Climate Change and Land. An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL)’; ‘IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)’.

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[[#footnote-047-backlink|3]] Biodiversity: Biodiversity or biological diversity means the variability among living organisms from all sources including, among other things, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems.

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[[#footnote-046-backlink|4]] Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., ''medium confidence'' . The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., ''very likely'' . This is consistent with AR5 and the other AR6 Reports.

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[[#footnote-045-backlink|5]] Risk is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems.

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[[#footnote-044-backlink|6]] Hazard is defined as the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources. Physical climate conditions that may be associated with hazards are assessed in Working Group I as climatic impact-drivers.

<div id="footnote-043" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-043-backlink|7]] Exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.

<div id="footnote-042" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-042-backlink|8]] Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

<div id="footnote-041" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-041-backlink|9]] Key risks have potentially severe adverse consequences for humans and social-ecological systems resulting from the interaction of climate related hazards with vulnerabilities of societies and systems exposed.

<div id="footnote-040" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-040-backlink|10]] Adaptation is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this.

<div id="footnote-039" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-039-backlink|11]] Adaptation limits: The point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions. Hard adaptation limit—No adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks. Soft adaptation limit—Options may exist but are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive action.

<div id="footnote-038" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-038-backlink|12]] Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure as well as biodiversity in case of ecosystems while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is a positive attribute when it maintains such a capacity for adaptation, learning, and/or transformation.

<div id="footnote-037" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-037-backlink|13]] Feasibility refers to the potential for an adaptation option to be implemented.

<div id="footnote-036" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-036-backlink|14]] Justice is concerned with setting out the moral or legal principles of fairness and equity in the way people are treated, often based on the ethics and values of society. ''Social justice'' comprises just or fair relations within society that seek to address the distribution of wealth, access to resources, opportunity and support according to principles of justice and fairness. ''Climate justice'' comprises justice that links development and human rights to achieve a rights-based approach to addressing climate change.

<div id="footnote-035" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-035-backlink|15]] Maladaptation refers to actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including via increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence.

<div id="footnote-034" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-034-backlink|16]] Transformation refers to a change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems.

<div id="footnote-033" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-033-backlink|17]] Ecosystem health: a metaphor used to describe the condition of an ecosystem, by analogy with human health. Note that there is no universally accepted benchmark for a healthy ecosystem. Rather, the apparent health status of an ecosystem is judged on the ecosystem’s resilience to change, with details depending upon which metrics (such as species richness and abundance) are employed in judging it and which societal aspirations are driving the assessment.

<div id="footnote-032" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-032-backlink|18]] Planetary health: a concept based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on ecosystem health and the wise stewardship of ecosystems.

<div id="footnote-031" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-031-backlink|19]] In this report, the term ‘losses and damages’ refers to adverse observed impacts and/or projected risks and can be economic and/or non-economic.

<div id="footnote-030" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-030-backlink|20]] In the WGII report, climate resilient development refers to the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development for all.

<div id="footnote-029" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-029-backlink|21]] RCP-based scenarios are referred to as RCPy, where ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m -2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.

<div id="footnote-028" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-028-backlink|22]] SSP-based scenarios are referred to as SSPx-y, where ‘SSPx’ refers to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway describing the socioeconomic trends underlying the scenarios, and ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m -2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.

<div id="footnote-027" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-027-backlink|23]] IPCC is neutral with regard to the assumptions underlying the SSPs, which do not cover all possible scenarios. Alternative scenarios may be considered or developed.

<div id="footnote-026" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-026-backlink|24]] In the WGI report, square brackets [x to y] are used to provide the assessed ''very likely'' range, or 90% interval.

<div id="footnote-025" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-025-backlink|25]] Since AR5, methodological advances and new datasets have provided a more complete spatial representation of changes in surface temperature, including in the Arctic. These and other improvements have also increased the estimate of global surface temperature change by approximately 0.1°C, but this increase does not represent additional physical warming since AR5.

<div id="footnote-024" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-024-backlink|26]] Global warming of 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900 would be exceeded during the 21st century under the intermediate, high and very high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in this report (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). Under the five illustrative scenarios, in the near term (2021–2040), the 1.5°C global warming level is ''very likely'' to be exceeded under the very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), ''likely'' to be exceeded under the intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), ''more likely than not'' to be exceeded under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and ''more likely than not'' to be reached under the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). Furthermore, for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), it is ''more likely than not'' that global surface temperature would decline back to below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century, with a temporary overshoot of no more than 0.1°C above 1.5°C global warming.

<div id="footnote-023" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-023-backlink|27]] Overshoot: In this report, pathways that first exceed a specified global warming level (usually 1.5°C, by more than 0.1°C), and then return to or below that level again before the end of a specified period of time (e.g., before 2100). Sometimes the magnitude and likelihood of the overshoot is also characterized. The overshoot duration can vary from at least one decade up to several decades.

<div id="footnote-022" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-022-backlink|28]] Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assessment of confidence. { Annex II Glossary, CWGB ATTRIB }

<div id="footnote-021" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-021-backlink|29]] Impacts of climate change are caused by slow onset and extreme events. Slow onset events are described among the climatic-impact drivers of the WGI AR6 and refer to the risks and impacts associated with e.g., increasing temperature means, desertification, decreasing precipitation, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification, sea level rise and salinization ( https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch ).

<div id="footnote-020" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-020-backlink|30]] Acute food insecurity can occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking determinants of food security and nutrition, and used to assess the need for humanitarian action.

<div id="footnote-019" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-019-backlink|31]] Governance: The structures, processes and actions through which private and public actors interact to address societal goals. This includes formal and informal institutions and the associated norms, rules, laws and procedures for deciding, managing, implementing and monitoring policies and measures at any geographic or political scale, from global to local.

<div id="footnote-018" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-018-backlink|32]] Balanced diets feature plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and animal-source foods produced in resilient, sustainable and low-greenhouse gas emissions systems, as described in SRCCL.

<div id="footnote-017" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-017-backlink|33]] Numbers of species assessed are in the tens of thousands globally.

<div id="footnote-016" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-016-backlink|34]] The term ‘very high risks of extinction’ is used here consistently with the IUCN categories and criteria and equates with ‘critically endangered’.

<div id="footnote-015" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-015-backlink|35]] The assessment found estimated rates of increase in projected global economic damages that were both greater than linear and less than linear as global warming level increases. There is evidence that some regions could benefit from low levels of warming ( ''high confidence'' ). { CWGB ECONOMIC }

<div id="footnote-014" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-014-backlink|36]] ''Low confidence'' assigned due to the assessed lack of comparability and robustness of global aggregate economic damage estimates. { CWGB ECONOMIC }

<div id="footnote-013" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-013-backlink|37]] In this report, overshoot pathways exceed 1.5°C global warming and then return to that level, or below, after several decades.

<div id="footnote-012" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-012-backlink|38]] Despite limited evidence specifically on the impacts of a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, a much broader evidence base from process understanding and the impacts of higher global warming levels allows a high confidence statement on the irreversibility of some impacts that would be incurred following such an overshoot.

<div id="footnote-011" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-011-backlink|39]] At the global scale, terrestrial ecosystems currently remove more carbon from the atmosphere (-3.4 ± 0.9 Gt yr -1 ) than they emit (+1.6 ± 0.7 Gt yr -1 ), a net sink of -1.9 ± 1.1 Gt yr -1 . However, recent climate change has shifted some systems in some regions from being net carbon sinks to net carbon sources.

<div id="footnote-010" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-010-backlink|40]] Adaptation gaps are defined as the difference between actually implemented adaptation and a societally set goal, determined largely by preferences related to tolerated climate change impacts and reflecting resource limitations and competing priorities.

<div id="footnote-009" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-009-backlink|41]] In this report, feasibility refers to the potential for a mitigation or adaptation option to be implemented. Factors influencing feasibility are context-dependent, temporally dynamic, and may vary between different groups and actors. Feasibility depends on geophysical, environmental-ecological, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional factors that enable or constrain the implementation of an option. The feasibility of options may change when different options are combined and increase when enabling conditions are strengthened.

<div id="footnote-008" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-008-backlink|42]] Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an adaptation option is anticipated or observed to reduce climate-related risk.

<div id="footnote-007" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-007-backlink|43]] In this report, the term natural forests describes those which are subject to little or no direct human intervention, whereas the term managed forests describes those where planting or other management activities take place, including those managed for commodity production.

<div id="footnote-006" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-006-backlink|44]] Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) is recognised internationally under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD14/5). A related concept is Nature-based Solutions (NbS), which includes a broader range of approaches with safeguards, including those that contribute to adaptation and mitigation. The term ‘Nature-based Solutions’ is widely but not universally used in the scientific literature. The term is the subject of ongoing debate, with concerns that it may lead to the misunderstanding that NbS on its own can provide a global solution to climate change.

<div id="footnote-005" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-005-backlink|45]] The term ‘response’ is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation.

<div id="footnote-004" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-004-backlink|46]] Climate literacy encompasses being aware of climate change, its anthropogenic causes and implications.

<div id="footnote-003" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-003-backlink|47]] From AR5, an option ''that would generate net social and/or economic benefits under current climate change and a range of future climate change scenarios'' , and represent one example of robust strategies.

<div id="footnote-002" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-002-backlink|48]] Institutions: Rules, norms and conventions that guide, constrain or enable human behaviours and practices. Institutions can be formally established, for instance through laws and regulations, or informally established, for instance by traditions or customs. Institutions may spur, hinder, strengthen, weaken or distort the emergence, adoption and implementation of climate action and climate governance.

<div id="footnote-001" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-001-backlink|49]] LECZ, coastal areas below 10 m of elevation above sea level that are hydrologically connected to the sea.

<div id="footnote-000" class="_idFootnote"></div>

[[#footnote-000-backlink|50]] Ecosystem integrity refers to the ability of ecosystems to maintain key ecological processes, recover from disturbance, and adapt to new conditions.