Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Health and well-being ===

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'''TS.C.6 Climate change will increase the number of deaths and the global burden of non-communicable and infectious diseases (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Over nine million climate-related deaths per year are projected by the end of the century, under a high emissions scenario and accounting for population growth, economic development and adaptation. Health risks will be differentiated by gender, age, income, social status and region (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 3.5.5, 3.6.2, 4.5.3, 5.12.4, Box 5.10, 6.2.2, 7.3.1, 8.4.5, 9.10.2, Figure 9.32, Figure 9.35, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 11.3.6, Table 11.14,12.3.2, 12.3.4, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, 12.3.8, Figure 12.5, Figure 12.6, 13.7.1, Figure 13.23, Figure 13.24, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, 16.5.2, CCP Box 6.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , CCB COVID, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.C.6.1 Future global burdens of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions will depend on emissions and adaptation pathways and the efficacy of public health systems, interventions and sanitation (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Projections under mid-range emissions scenarios show an additional 250,000 deaths per year by 2050 (compared to 1961–1990) due to malaria, heat, childhood undernutrition and diarrhoea ( ''high confidence'' ). Overall, more than half of this excess mortality is projected for Africa. Mortality and morbidity will continue to escalate as exposures become more frequent and intense, putting additional strain on health and economic systems ( ''high confidence'' ), reducing capacity to respond, particularly in resource-poor regions. Vulnerable groups include young children (&lt;5 years old), the elderly (&gt;65 years old), pregnant women, Indigenous Peoples, those with pre-existing diseases, physical labourers and those in low socioeconomic conditions ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.5.3, 7.3.1, 9.10.2, 12.3.5, 16.5.2, CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.C.6.2 Climate change is expected to have adverse impacts on well-being and to further threaten mental health (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Children and adolescents, particularly girls, as well as people with existing mental, physical and medical challenges, are particularly at risk ( ''high confidence'' ). Mental health impacts are expected to arise from exposure to extreme weather events, displacement, migration, famine, malnutrition, degradation or destruction of health and social care systems, climate-related economic and social losses and anxiety and distress associated with worry about climate change ( ''very high confidence'' ). { 7.3.1, 11.3.6, 14.5.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB COVID }

'''TS.C.6.3 Increased heat-related mortality and morbidity are projected globally (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Globally, temperature-related mortality is projected to increase under RCP4.5 to RCP8.5, even with adaptation ( ''very high confidence'' ). Tens of thousands of additional deaths are projected under moderate and high global warming scenarios, particularly in north, west and central Africa, with up to year-round exceedance of deadly heat thresholds by 2100 (RCP8.5) ( ''high agreement, robust evidence'' ). In Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, urban heat-related excess deaths are projected to increase by about 300 yr -1 (low emission pathway) to 600 yr -1 (high emission pathway) during 2031–2080 relative to 142 yr -1 during 1971–2020 ( ''high confidence'' ). In Europe the number of people at high risk of mortality will triple at 3°C compared to 1.5°C warming, in particular in central and southern Europe and urban areas ( ''high confidence'' ). { 6.2.2, 7.3.1, 8.4.5, 9.10.2, Figure 9.32, Figure 9.35, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 11.3.6, 11.3.6, Table 11.14, 12.3.4, 12.3.8, Figure 12.6, 13.7.1, Figure 13.23, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, 16.5.2 }

'''TS.C.6.4 Climate impacts on food systems are projected to increase undernutrition and diet-related mortality and risks globally (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Reduced marine and freshwater fisheries catch potential is projected to increase malnutrition in East, West and Central Africa ( ''medium to high confidence'' ) and in subsistence-dependent communities across North America ( ''high confidence'' ). By 2050, disability-adjusted life years due to undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are projected to increase by 10% under RCP8.5 ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). These projected changes will increase diet-related risk factors and related non-communicable diseases globally and increase undernutrition, stunting and related childhood mortality, particularly in Africa and Asia ( ''high confidence'' ). Near-term projections (2030) of undernutrition are the highest for children ( ''confidence'' ), which can have lifelong adverse consequences for physiological and neurological development as well as for earnings capacity. Climate change is projected to put 8 million (SSP1-6.0) to 80 million people (SSP3-6.0) at risk of hunger in mid-century, concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America ( ''high confidence'' ). These climate change impacts on nutrition could undermine progress towards the eradication of child undernutrition ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.5.3, 5.2.2, 5.12.4, Box 5.10, 7.3.1, 9.8.5, 9.10.2, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 13.7.1, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.C.6.5 Vector-borne disease transmission is projected to expand to higher latitudes and altitudes, and the duration of seasonal transmission risk is projected to increase (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), with the greatest risk under high emissions scenarios.''' Dengue vector ranges will increase in North America, Asia, Europe and sub-Saharan Africa under RCP6 and RCP8.5, potentially putting another 2.25 billion people at risk ( ''high confidence'' ). Higher incidence rates of Lyme disease are projected for the Northern Hemisphere ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Climate change is projected to increase malaria’s geographic distribution in endemic areas of sub-Saharan and southern Africa, Asia and South America ( ''high confidence'' ), exposing tens of millions more people to malaria, predominately in east and southern Africa, and up to hundreds of millions more exposed under RCP8.5 ( ''high confidence'' ). { 7.3.1, 9.10.2, Figure 9.32, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 11.3.6, 12.3.2, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, Figure 12.5, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.C.6.6 Higher temperatures and heavy rainfall events are projected to increase rates of water-borne and food-borne diseases in many regions (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' At 2.1°C, thousands to tens of thousands of additional cases of diarrhoeal disease are projected, mainly in central and east Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). Morbidity from cholera will increase in central and east Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ), and increased schistosomiasis risk is projected for eastern Africa ( ''high confidence'' ). In Asia and Africa, 1°C warming can cause a 7% increase in diarrhoea, an 8% increase in ''E. coli'' and a 3% to 11% increase in deaths ( ''medium confidence'' ). Warming increases the risk of food-borne disease outbreaks, including ''Salmonella'' and ''Campylobacter'' infections ( ''medium confidence'' ). Warming supports the growth and geographical expansion of toxigenic fungi in crops ( ''medium confidence'' ) and potentially toxic marine and freshwater algae ( ''medium confidence'' ). Food safety risks in fisheries and aquaculture are projected through harmful algal blooms ( ''high confidence'' ), pathogens (e.g., ''Vibrio'' ) ( ''high confidence'' ), and human exposure to elevated bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants and mercury ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 3.5.5, 3.6.2, 4.5.3, 5.12.4, Box 5.10, 7.3.1, 9.10.2, Figure 9.32, 10.4.7, Figure 10.11, 11.3.6, 13.7.1, Figure 13.24, 14.5.4, 14.5.6, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.6 CCP6.2.6] , CCB MOVING PLATE }

'''TS.C.6.7 The burden of several non-communicable diseases is projected to increase under climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Cardiovascular disease mortality could increase by 18.4%, 47.8% and 69.0% in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively under RCP4.5, and by 16.6%, 73.8% and 134% under RCP8.5 compared to the 1980s ( ''high confidence'' ). Future risks of respiratory disease associated with aeroallergens and ozone exposure are expected to increase ( ''high confidence'' ). { 7.3.1, 10.4.7, 11.3.6, 12.3.4, 13.7.1 }

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