Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

== 5.4 Mitigation and Sustainable Development ==

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The AR5 WGIII examined the potential of various mitigation options for specific sectors (energy supply, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture, forestry, and other land use; AFOLU); it provided a narrative of dimensions of sustainable development and equity as a framing for evaluating climate responses and policies, respectively, in Chapters 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 (IPCC, 2014a) <sup>[[#fn:r163|163]]</sup> . This section builds on the analyses of Chapters 2 and 4 of this report to re-assess mitigation and sustainable development in the context of 1.5°C global warming as well as the SDGs.

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=== 5.4.1 Synergies and Trade-Offs between Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development ===

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Adopting stringent climate mitigation options can generate multiple positive non-climate benefits that have the potential to reduce the costs of achieving sustainable development (IPCC, 2014b; Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2014, 2016; Schaeffer et al., 2015; von Stechow et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r164|164]]</sup> . Understanding the positive impacts (synergies) but also the negative impacts (trade-offs) is key for selecting mitigation options and policy choices that maximize the synergies between mitigation and developmental actions (Hildingsson and Johansson, 2015; Nilsson et al., 2016; Delponte et al., 2017; van Vuuren et al., 2017b; McCollum et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r165|165]]</sup> . Aligning mitigation response options to sustainable development objectives can ensure public acceptance (IPCC, 2014a) <sup>[[#fn:r166|166]]</sup> , encourage faster action (Lechtenboehmer and Knoop, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r167|167]]</sup> and support the design of equitable mitigation (Holz et al., 2018; Winkler et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r168|168]]</sup> that protect human rights (MRFCJ, 2015b) <sup>[[#fn:r169|169]]</sup> (Section 5.5.3).

This sub-section assesses available literature on the interactions of individual mitigation options (see Chapter 2, Section 2.3.1.2, Chapter 4, Sections 4.2 and 4.3) with sustainable development and the SDGs and underlying targets. Table 5.2 presents an assessment of these synergies and trade-offs and the strength of the interaction using an SDG-interaction score (see Glossary) (McCollum et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r170|170]]</sup> , with evidence and agreements levels. Figure 5.2 presents the information of Table 5.2, showing gross (not net) interactions with the SDGs. This detailed assessment of synergies and trade-offs of individual mitigation options with the SDGs (Table 5.2 a–d and Figure 5.2) reveals that the number of synergies exceeds that of trade-offs. Mitigation response options in the energy demand sector, AFOLU and oceans have more positive interactions with a larger number of SDGs compared to those on the energy supply side ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ).

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==== 5.4.1.1 Energy Demand: Mitigation Options to Accelerate Reduction in Energy Use and Fuel Switch ====

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For mitigation options in the energy demand sectors, the number of synergies with all sixteen SDGs exceeds the number of trade-offs (Figure 5.2 and Table 5.2) ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ). Most of the interactions are of a reinforcing nature, hence facilitating the achievement of the goals.

Accelerating energy efficiency in all sectors, which is a necessary condition for a 1.5°C warmer world (see Chapters 2 and 4), has synergies with a large number of SDGs ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Figure 5.2 and Table 5.2). The diffusion of efficient equipment and appliances across end use sectors has synergies with international partnership (SDG 17) and participatory and transparent institutions (SDG 16) because innovations and deployment of new technologies require transnational capacity building and knowledge sharing. Resource and energy savings support sustainable production and consumption (SDG 12), energy access (SDG 7), innovation and infrastructure development (SDG 9) and sustainable city development (SDG 11). Energy efficiency supports the creation of decent jobs by new service companies providing services for energy efficiency, but the net employment effect of efficiency improvement remains uncertain due to macro-economic feedback (SDG 8) (McCollum et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r171|171]]</sup> .

In the buildings sector, accelerating energy efficiency by way of, for example, enhancing the use of efficient appliances, refrigerant transition, insulation, retrofitting and low- or zero-energy buildings generates benefits across multiple SDG targets. For example, improved cook stoves make fuel endowments last longer and hence reduce deforestation (SDG 15), support equal opportunity by reducing school absences due to asthma among children (SDGs 3 and 4) and empower rural and indigenous women by reducing drudgery (SDG 5) ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Derbez et al., 2014; Lucon et al., 2014; Maidment et al., 2014; Scott et al., 2014; Cameron et al., 2015; Fay et al., 2015; Liddell and Guiney, 2015; Shah et al., 2015; Sharpe et al., 2015; Wells et al., 2015; Willand et al., 2015; Hallegatte et al., 2016; Kusumaningtyas and Aldrian, 2016; Berrueta et al., 2017; McCollum et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r172|172]]</sup> .

In energy-intensive processing industries, 1.5ºC-compatible trajectories require radical technology innovation through maximum electrification, shift to other low emissions energy carriers such as hydrogen or biomass, integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovations for carbon capture and utilization (CCU) (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.4.5). These transformations have strong synergies with innovation and sustainable industrialization (SDG 9), supranational partnerships (SDGs 16 and 17) and sustainable production (SDG 12). However, possible trade-offs due to risks of CCS-based carbon leakage, increased electricity demands, and associated price impacts affecting energy access and poverty (SDGs 7 and 1) would need careful regulatory attention (Wesseling et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r173|173]]</sup> . In the mining industry, energy efficiency can be synergetic or face trade-offs with sustainable management (SDG 6), depending on the option retained for water management (Nguyen et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r174|174]]</sup> . Substitution and recycling are also an important driver of 1.5ºC-compatible trajectories in industrial systems (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.4.2). Structural changes and reorganization of economic activities in industrial park/clusters following the principles of industrial symbiosis (circular economy) improves the overall sustainability by reducing energy and waste (Fan et al., 2017; Preston and Lehne, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r175|175]]</sup> and reinforces responsible production and consumption (SDG 12) through recycling, water use efficiency (SDG 6), energy access (SDG 7) and ecosystem protection and restoration (SDG 15) (Karner et al., 2015; Zeng et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r176|176]]</sup> .

In the transport sector, deep electrification may trigger increases of electricity prices and adversely affect poor populations (SDG 1), unless pro-poor redistributive policies are in place (Klausbruckner et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r177|177]]</sup> .

In cities, governments can lay the foundations for compact, connected low-carbon cities, which are an important component of 1.5ºC-compatible transformations (see Chapter 4, Section 4.3.3) and show synergies with sustainable cities (SDG 11) (Colenbrander et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r178|178]]</sup> .

Behavioural responses are important determinants of the ultimate outcome of energy efficiency on emission reductions and energy access (SDG 7) and their management requires a detailed understanding of the drivers of consumption and the potential for and barriers to absolute reductions (Fuchs et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r179|179]]</sup> . Notably, the rebound effect tends to offset the benefits of efficiency for emissions reductions through growing demand for energy services (Sorrell, 2015; Suffolk and Poortinga, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r180|180]]</sup> . However, high rebound can help in providing faster access to affordable energy (SDG 7.1) where the goal is to reduce energy poverty and unmet energy demand (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.3) (Chakravarty et al., 2013) <sup>[[#fn:r181|181]]</sup> . Comprehensive policy design – including rebound supressing policies, such as carbon pricing and policies that encourage awareness building and promotional material design – is needed to tap the full potential of energy savings, as applicable to a 1.5°C warming context (Chakravarty and Tavoni, 2013; IPCC, 2014b; Karner et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2015; Altieri et al., 2016; Santarius et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r182|182]]</sup> and to address policy-related trade-offs and welfare-enhancing benefits ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Chakravarty et al., 2013; Chakravarty and Roy, 2016; Gillingham et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r183|183]]</sup> ''.''

Other behavioural responses will affect the interplay between energy efficiency and sustainable development. Building occupants reluctant to change their habits may miss out on welfare-enhancing energy efficiency opportunities (Zhao et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r184|184]]</sup> . Preferences for new products and premature obsolescence for appliances is expected to adversely affect sustainable consumption and production (SDG 12) with ramifications for resource use efficiency (Echegaray, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r185|185]]</sup> . Changes in user behaviour towards increased physical activity, less reliance on motorized travel over short distances and the use of public transport would help to decarbonize the transport sector in a synergetic manner with SDGs 3, 11 and 12 (Shaw et al., 2014; Ajanovic, 2015; Chakrabarti and Shin, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r186|186]]</sup> , while reducing inequality in access to basic facilities (SDG 10) (Lucas and Pangbourne, 2014; Kagawa et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r187|187]]</sup> . However, infrastructure design and regulations would need to ensure road safety and address risks of road accidents for pedestrians (Hwang et al., 2017; Khreis et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r188|188]]</sup> to ensure sustainable infrastructure growth in human settlements (SDGs 9 and 11) (Lin et al., 2015; SLoCaT, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r189|189]]</sup> .

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==== 5.4.1.2 Energy Supply: Accelerated Decarbonization ====

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Decreasing the share of coal in energy supply in line with 1.5ºC-compatible scenarios (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2) reduces adverse impacts of upstream supply-chain activities, in particular air and water pollution and coal mining accidents, and enhances health by reducing air pollution, notably in cities, showing synergies with SDGs 3, 11 and 12 (Yang et al., 2016; UNEP, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r190|190]]</sup> .

Fast deployment of renewables such as solar, wind, hydro and modern biomass, together with the decrease of fossil fuels in energy supply (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.1), is aligned with the doubling of renewables in the global energy mix (SDG 7.2). Renewables could also support progress on SDGs 1, 10, 11 and 12 and supplement new technology ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Chaturvedi and Shukla, 2014; Rose et al., 2014; Smith and Sagar, 2014; Riahi et al., 2015; IEA, 2016; van Vuuren et al., 2017a; McCollum et al., 2018a) <sup>[[#fn:r191|191]]</sup> ''.'' However, some trade-offs with the SDGs can emerge from offshore installations, particularly SDG 14 in local contexts (McCollum et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r192|192]]</sup> . Moreover, trade-offs between renewable energy production and affordability (SDG 7) (Labordena et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r193|193]]</sup> and other environmental objectives would need to be scrutinised for potential negative social outcomes. Policy interventions through regional cooperation-building (SDG 17) and institutional capacity (SDG 16) can enhance affordability (SDG 7) (Labordena et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r194|194]]</sup> . The deployment of small-scale renewables, or off-grid solutions for people in remote areas (Sánchez and Izzo, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r195|195]]</sup> , has strong potential for synergies with access to energy (SDG 7), but the actualization of these potentials requires measures to overcome technology and reliability risks associated with large-scale deployment of renewables (Giwa et al., 2017; Heard et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r196|196]]</sup> . Bundling energy-efficient appliances and lighting with off-grid renewables can lead to substantial cost reduction while increasing reliability (IEA, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r197|197]]</sup> . Low-income populations in industrialized countries are often left out of renewable energy generation schemes, either because of high start-up costs or lack of home ownership (UNRISD, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r198|198]]</sup> .

Nuclear energy, the share of which increases in most of the 1.5ºC-compatible pathways (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.1), can increase the risks of proliferation (SDG 16), have negative environmental effects (e.g., for water use; SDG 6) and have mixed effects for human health when replacing fossil fuels (SDGs 7 and 3) (see Table 5.2). The use of fossil CCS, which plays an important role in deep mitigation pathways (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.3), implies continued adverse impacts of upstream supply-chain activities in the coal sector, and because of lower efficiency of CCS coal power plants (SDG 12), upstream impacts and local air pollution are likely to be exacerbated (SDG 3). Furthermore, there is a non-negligible risk of carbon dioxide leakage from geological storage and the carbon dioxide transport infrastructure (SDG 3) (Table 5.2).

Economies dependent upon fossil fuel-based energy generation and/or export revenue are expected to be disproportionally affected by future restrictions on the use of fossil fuels under stringent climate goals and higher carbon prices; this includes impacts on employment, stranded assets, resources left underground, lower capacity use and early phasing out of large infrastructure already under construction ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Box 5.2) (Johnson et al., 2015; McGlade and Ekins, 2015; UNEP, 2017; Spencer et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r199|199]]</sup> . Investment in coal continues to be attractive in many countries as it is a mature technology and provides cheap energy supplies, large-scale employment and energy security (Jakob and Steckel, 2016; Vogt-Schilb and Hallegatte, 2017; Spencer et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r200|200]]</sup> . Hence, accompanying policies and measures would be required to ease job losses and correct for relatively higher prices of alternative energy (Oosterhuis and Ten Brink, 2014; Oei and Mendelevitch, 2016; Garg et al., 2017; HLCCP, 2017; Jordaan et al., 2017; OECD, 2017; UNEP, 2017; Blondeel and van de Graaf, 2018; Green, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r201|201]]</sup> . Research on historical transitions shows that managing the impacts on workers through retraining programmes is essential in order to align the phase-down of mining industries with meeting ambitious climate targets, and the objectives of a ‘just transition’ (Galgóczi, 2014; Caldecott et al., 2017; Healy and Barry, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r202|202]]</sup> . This aspect is even more important in developing countries where the mining workforce is largely semi- or unskilled (Altieri et al., 2016; Tung, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r203|203]]</sup> . Ambitious emissions reduction targets can unlock very strong decoupling potentials in industrialized fossil exporting economies (Hatfield-Dodds et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r204|204]]</sup> .

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