Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

==== CCP6.2.4.1 Changing access to natural resources with consequences for safety, economic development and climate mitigation ====

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Climate change is improving access to natural resources in the Arctic with consequences for human safety ( ''high confidence'' ), economic development ( ''very high confidence'' ) and global mitigation efforts ( ''medium confidence'' ). Reductions in sea ice combined with improved extraction and transportation technologies have increased accessibility to natural resources across the Arctic ( [[#Eliasson--2017|Eliasson et al., 2017]] ; [[#Dawson--2018b|Dawson et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Stephen--2018|Stephen, 2018]] ), a situation that could support continued global dependence on relatively cheap and abundant fossil fuels resources and contribute to further warming. By 2040 (RCP4.5) it is expected that sea ice will have receded enough to make gas production technologically feasible in the European off-shore Arctic ( [[#Petrick--2017|Petrick et al., 2017]] ). However, increased sea ice mobility, iceberg abundance, storm surge and surface wave action ( [[#Ng--2018|Ng et al., 2018]] ; [[#Howell--2019|Howell and Brady, 2019]] ; [[#Casas-Prat--2020|Casas-Prat and Wang, 2020]] ) will also increase risks to ships servicing mines in a region that already exhibits disproportionately high accident rates ( [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2016|Council of Canadian Academies, 2016]] ) (CCP6.3.1, Table CCP6.1). Season lengths for ship-based support to mines and extraction sites will increase with sea ice change, while access via ice roads will decrease with warming ( [[#Perrin--2015|Perrin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Council%20of%20Canadian%20Academies--2016|Council of Canadian Academies, 2016]] ; [[#Trofimenko--2017|Trofimenko et al., 2017]] ; [[#Southcott--2018|Southcott and Natcher, 2018]] ). By 2050, climate change impacts to the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road servicing mines in the northeastern region of the Northwest Territories, Canada could cost between $55 million to $213 million CAD to maintain for a shorter period of time than at present ( [[#Perrin--2015|Perrin et al., 2015]] ). Changes in submarine permafrost, critical to mining infrastructure, such as pipelines and offshore infrastructure ( [[#Bashaw--2016|Bashaw et al., 2016]] ; [[#Paulin--2016|Paulin and Caines, 2016]] ), are expected to increase production costs and impact safety for workers ( [[#Riedel--2017|Riedel et al., 2017]] ). By mid-century, regardless of emissions scenario, it is expected that risks from permafrost thaw will be disproportionately high for industrial infrastructure along major pipeline systems in Alaska and natural gas extraction areas in the Yamal-Nenets region in northwestern Siberia, Russia ( [[#Hjort--2018|Hjort et al., 2018]] ).

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