Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Migration and displacement ===

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'''TS.C.7 Migration patterns due to climate change are difficult to project as they depend on patterns of population growth, adaptive capacity of exposed populations and socioeconomic development and migration policies (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). In many regions, the frequency and/or severity of floods, extreme storms and droughts is projected to increase in coming decades, especially under high emissions scenarios, raising future risk of displacement in the most exposed areas (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Under all global warming levels, some regions that are presently densely populated will become unsafe or uninhabitable, with movement from these regions occurring autonomously or through planned relocation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 4.5.7, 7.3.2, Box 9.8, 15.3.4, CCB MIGRATE }

'''TS.C.7.1 Future climate-related migration is expected to vary by region and over time, according to future climatic drivers, patterns of population growth, adaptive capacity of exposed populations and international development and migration policies (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Future migration and displacement patterns in a changing climate will depend not only on the physical impacts of climate change, but also on future policies and planning at all scales of governance ( ''high confidence'' ). Projecting the number of people migrating due to slow onset events is difficult due to the multi-causal nature of migration and the dominant role that socioeconomic factors have in determining migration responses ( ''high confidence'' ). Increased frequency of extreme heat events and long-term increases in average temperatures pose future risks to the habitability of settlements in low latitudes; this, combined with the urban heat island effect, may in the long term affect migration patterns in exposed areas, especially under high emissions scenarios, but more evidence is needed ''.'' High emissions/low development scenarios raise the potential for both increased rates of migration and displacement and larger involuntary immobile populations that are highly exposed to climatic risks but lack the means of moving to other locations ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.5.7, 7.2.6, 7.3.2, 15.3.4, 4.6.9, 5.14.1, 5.14.2, 7.3.2, 7.4.5, 8.2.1, Box 8.1, Box 9.8, CCP 6.3.2, CCB MIGRATE }

'''TS.C.7.2 Estimates of displacement from rapid-onset extreme events exist; however, the range of estimates is large as they largely depend on assumptions made about future emissions and socioeconomic development trajectories (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Uncertainties about socioeconomic development are reflected in the wide range of projected population displacements by 2050 in Central and South America, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia due to climate change, ranging from 31 million to 143 million people ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' Projections of the number of people at risk of future displacement by sea level rise range from tens of millions to hundreds of millions by the end of this century, depending on the level of warmings and assumptions about exposure ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 4.5.7, 7.3.2, 7.3.2, 7.3.2, 9.9.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2.2] , CCB MIGRATE, CCB SLR, Figure AI.42 }

'''TS.C.7.3 As climate risk intensifies, the need for planned relocations will increase to support those who are unable to move voluntarily (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Planned relocation will be increasingly required as climate change undermines livelihoods, safety and overall habitability, especially for coastal areas and small islands ( ''medium confidence'' ). This will have implications for traditional livelihood practices, social cohesion and knowledge systems that have inherent value as intangible culture as well as introduce new risks for communities by amplifying existing and generating new vulnerabilities ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.6.8, 15.3.4, 14.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3.5 CCP2.3.5] , CCB FEASIB, CCB MIGRATE }

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